The writer’s strike is at an impasse, with studios and the union unable to negotiate a fair settlement for Internet airings of television shows and movies. There was a rumor that talks should be resolved by Christmas, but this was an incorrect story and/or an overly positive one, because the talks have stalled and the latest news is that both sides are nowhere near a compromise. This means that the upcoming awards shows like The Oscars and Golden Globes are likely to be scrapped as many high-profile celebrities will refuse to cross picket lines and most everyone else will follow suit.

The Golden Globes are most likely to go if the strike is still on as they’re scheduled for January 13th. If the strike is still not settled by February 24, the air date for the Oscars, the Oscars won’t be happening this year either:

“Golden Globes? Not happening. Oscars? Not happening.”

That’s the word — or the words — from a Writers Guild insider who knows the score concerning the long-running strike against the studios.

The Guild will, without a doubt, picket the Golden Globes on Jan. 13, my source says. This person knows the business. The Guild also will picket the Oscars, the Spirit Awards and, presumably, the Grammys. They’ll also picket shows such as the People’s Choice Awards.

So far, the WGA has been very effective with picket lines — far more so probably than the studios ever expected. Hollywood already is shut down because of picket lines.

Interestingly, Variety — “the bible” of show business — is taking a subtle pro-studio stand on the strike.

Tuesday night, the publication’s story indicating a Golden Globe picket line made it seem like the physical picketers would be so far from the Hilton that no one would care. Alas, a modern picket line is as virtual as anything else in 2008. If the Writers Guild says it’s boycotting the Globes, its members, and members of other guilds, are highly unlikely to attend.

It’s not just that the Guild turned down requests for waivers from the Hollywood Foreign Press (the Globes, Jan. 13) and the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (Oscars, Feb. 24). That happened on Monday.

According to this high-level source, the Guild will not negotiate a separate deal with Dick Clark Productions, the company that produces the Globes show for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and NBC.

Instead, the Guild will picket the show. And if the strike is still on when Feb. 24 rolls around, the Guild will picket the Oscars, too.

And this means that millions of dollars in advertising spent by the networks and the movie studios will go down the drain. So far, the Hollywood Foreign Press has pretended as if this weren’t happening. But it is.

Jan. 13 is less than a month away. A picket line around the Beverly Hilton Hotel means that big stars like George Clooney and Steven Spielberg will stay away. It’s that simple. And once they’ve announced their intentions not to cross, the rest will follow.

[From Foxnews.com]

I wonder if they’ll carry on with the shows with whomever will attend or if they’ll be scrapped entirely. From the way this story is worded, it sounds like The Golden Globes will probably not happen at all and that the Oscars are at risk depending on how quickly the strike can be settled. The only reason I watch the shows is to see what the stars are wearing as I find the ceremonies incredibly boring, although last year’s Oscars weren’t bad. I can’t say I’ll miss either of those shows and to me it’s more about the effects of the strike on tv and movies.

I live overseas and unfortunately can’t watch US television until the older episodes are shown over here, but ironically I finally scored an invite to Hulu.com, which offers real streaming current TV shows legally on demand. Hulu is put out by NBC and has lots of current shows from NBC, Fox, Bravo, and FX, among others. 30 second commercials are shown in place of full commercial breaks. This is the type of content that the writers want to be paid for, but the studios are holding their ground.

The FoxNews article points out that the studios want to pay the writers almost nothing for Internet broadcasts of their shows. They also say it would cost $150 million for the studios to settle the strike with the Writer’s Guild, which is the cost of one medium budget flop. Instead of giving writers a fair share, they’re refusing to consider the offer. The result will be much more expensive for them as very little content is created for next year and advertising revenue and viewership goes way, way down.

Update: The Peoples’ Choice Awards have been all but canceled, with no press allowed and no red carpet. The event will air partially on CBS on January 8th, most likely to announce the winners.