The 2025 Oscar nominations will come out tomorrow, after being delayed because of the Southern California wildfires. Many Oscar voters and guild members lost their homes in the fires, and AMPAS has been very responsive in giving their people more time to vote, knowing that the Oscars are probably very far down the list of priorities for most voters. Still, a lot of the trade papers are doing previews and prognostications for this year’s potential nominees, so I thought I would too. I’m going to break this down by category.

Best Supporting Actor. There are, by my count, three “sure thing” nominations in this category, three names which have made every shortlist for months: Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) and Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice). Edward Norton’s turn in A Complete Unknown was wonderful, and he’s gotten some recognition, so many he’ll make the list too. I don’t know about Guy Pearce in The Brutalist though – he’s been snubbed already for some noms, but so has Denzel Washington. This is AMPAS – wouldn’t they jump at the chance to give Denzel a nom, especially over Guy Pearce? It probably doesn’t matter, because I think Culkin has had this locked up for a while.

Best Supporting Actress. This is arguably the most unsettled category, especially with Jamie Lee Curtis making a late surge for The Last Showgirl. It feels like Zoe Saldana’s potential to win for Emilia Perez has taken a hit in recent weeks too, but I think she’ll definitely get a nom. Selena Gomez… probably not? What about Felicity Jones, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro? There’s some talk about Margaret Qualley for The Substance, but I just don’t know. I think for sure Ariana Grande gets a nom for Wicked, and the potential to give a nom to Isabella Rossellini for playing a nun is too good to pass up.

Best Actor. This category has been pretty settled for months – it’s pretty much guaranteed that Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) and Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) will get nominated. The wild card is whether Daniel Craig will get a nom for Queer, or whether someone like Hugh Grant, Sebastian Stan or Jesse Eisenberg will suddenly get in. Who will win here? I would love it so much if Ralph Fiennes won. I wouldn’t hate it if Chalamet won. I have a terrible feeling that if there’s a surprise in this category, it will be Colman Domingo getting snubbed.

Best Actress. Like supporting actress, this is crazy-unsettled. What’s weird is that a lot of us felt like Nicole Kidman and Angelina Jolie were both going to be major contenders in this category, and then it just fizzled out for both of them. For sure, Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Mikey Madison (Anora) and Demi Moore (The Substance) will get noms. Karla Sofia Gascon will probably get in (although it does feel like the pendulum is already swinging away from Emilia Perez). Who will take the fifth spot? Pamela Anderson? Marianne Jean-Baptiste? Fernanda Torres? While the category feels unsettled, a lot of people think Demi Moore is now a sure thing for the Oscar, so…

Best Director. Last year, all eyes were on the director race because of Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan. Gerwig ended up getting snubbed for a nom, and Nolan became the easy consensus winner – he probably would have been the consensus with or without Gerwig’s snub. This year’s directors’ race feels less dramatic. It’s a weird field, honestly. I think for sure Edward Berger (Conclave) will get a nom, as will Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) and Caralie Fargeat (The Substance). Sean Baker will likely get nominated for Anora (he’s been on most shortlists). The wild cards are, imo, Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez), Jon Chu (Wicked) and maybe Denis Villeneuve (Dune 2). There could definitely be a shakeup here with a “sure thing” getting snubbed suddenly.

Best Picture. Sure things for noms: The Brutalist, Conclave, Wicked, The Substance. Likely to be nominated but there could be a surprise: Emilia Perez, Anora, A Complete Unknown. Wild cards: Dune 2, Sing Sing, A Real Pain, ???. This is a very weird awards season.

Photos courtesy of Avalon Red, Cover Images, ‘Conclave’ promotional images.