In most awards seasons, there’s at least one category where one person becomes the instant front-runner and proceeds to simply sweep all of the major awards with little to no contest. Think Da’Vine Joy Randolph or Cillian Murphy. Weirdly, I think that person for the 2025-26 awards season will be Benicio del Toro for One Battle After Another. On the plus side, it’s not category fraud – he is playing a true supporting character, and he steals many of his scenes. I also think Benicio will win because people genuinely forgot that he already has an Oscar, for Traffic back in 2001. Imagine winning two supporting-actor Oscars 25 years apart!!
While I’m not sure if Leonardo DiCaprio will be a major contender in the lead actor category, I guarantee that he’ll be nominated for OBAA. I think it’s more than possible that Hollywood has decided that it’s finally Paul Thomas Anderson’s moment too. OBAA is arguably one of his best films, and it’s become one of the most-discussed films in a weird year. Plus, PTA has never won an Oscar and he’s been nominated ELEVEN TIMES. Will this be a “he’s due” moment, like with Christopher Nolan and Oppenheimer?
I’m bringing all of this up because a bunch of the major critics awards have been released this week. The National Board of Review – arguably the biggest “awards harbinger” of all of the critics orgs – has released their list, and OBAA is certainly riding high:
Best Film: “One Battle After Another”
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Best Actress: Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Best Supporting Actor: Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Best Supporting Actress: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Breakthrough Performance: Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another”
Best Original Screenplay: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Best Adapted Screenplay: Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, “Train Dreams”
I’m most surprised with Leo getting Best Actor- NBR usually likes to mix things up much more than this, but they were just in love with OBAA. Also: shout-out to Rose Byrne, who is absolutely surging ahead in the Best Actress Oscar race. Rose, Benicio and OBAA also picked up prizes at the New York Film Critics Circle:
Film: One Battle After Another
Director: Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Actor: Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Actress: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Supporting Actor: Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Screenplay: Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein, Marty Supreme
International Film: The Secret Agent
My prediction: Rose and Benicio will have their categories locked up by January, but there isn’t consensus on Best Actor, Supporting Actress or director. I will be fine with OBAA sweeping though – it’s a good movie, PTA is legitimately one of the great American directors and all of the actors did a great job.
Photos courtesy of Avalon Red, Cover Images. Posters courtesy of Warner Bros.
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- (L-R) Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio del Toro, Chase Infiniti and Director Paul Thomas Anderson attend the red carpet for ‘One Battle After Another’ fan event at Toreo Parque Central. on September 18, 2025 in Mexico City, Mexico.,Image: 1038563864, License: Rights-managed, Restrictions: , Model Release: no, Credit line: Carlos Tischler/Avalon
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- Actors (L-R) Leonardo DiCaprio and Benicio del Toro attend the red carpet for ‘One Battle After Another’ fan event at Toreo Parque Central. on September 18, 2025 in Mexico City, Mexico.,Image: 1038563995, License: Rights-managed, Restrictions: , Model Release: no, Credit line: Carlos Tischler/Avalon
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- Benicio del Toro and Leonardo DiCaprio at the 16th Governors Awards in the Ray Dolby Ballroom at Ovation Hollywood on Sunday, November 16, 2025.,Image: 1052990038, License: Rights-managed, Restrictions: ©A.M.P.A.S. All rights reserved., Model Release: no, Credit line: /AMPAS/Avalon
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- Rose Byrne at the 16th Governors Awards in the Ray Dolby Ballroom at Ovation Hollywood on Sunday, November 16, 2025.,Image: 1053004236, License: Rights-managed, Restrictions: ©A.M.P.A.S. All rights reserved., Model Release: no, Credit line: /AMPAS/Avalon
I think if there’s a shoo-in for that movie (besides the movie itself) it’s PTA he is more “due” than Leo and Benecio who have already won.
There’s been a lot of buzz for Jessie Buckley in Hamnett, also Amanda Seyfried in the Ann Lee movie
Loved the movie but Michael B Jordan from Sinners for best actor & best movie and director& song basically all of ghe awards
I don’t know how Sinners can be discounted as a contender for best picture. But the academy will academy.
I think Sinners will get nominated for a lot but not win a lot. I can see it winning a few of the design awards – production design, set design, costume etc. And maybe original screenplay. I think it deserves more but I think that’s what’s likely to end up happening.
Sinners will win for cinematography but that’s probably it
We all know why. I had assumed Sinners had a strong chance this award season, until OBAA came out. You can never underestimate the “overdue narrative” for a white, male director. Don’t get me wrong — PTA is a great director! But the minute this narrative and opportunity took hold for the Academy, I sensed OBAA was going to sweep and that Sinners was going to get the, “You should be happy you get some nominations” treatment.
Also, not sure why Kaiser doesn’t think there is a consensus on best director when it’s PTA’s to lose. I would argue this is less like Nolan’s win and more like Scorcese’s win for The Departed.
The film wasn’t one for me personally (beyond everything Benecio did and that gloriously lit rooftop chase) but it was a quality film and PTA and BDT would deserve their flowers. Slightly surprised (and not in a bad way) that it might be Benecio receiving the recognition rather that Sean Penn! Thought Sean did a great job and it was an awards obvious role, was expecting to see his name everywhere.
However I’m still hoping Sinners will be the little film that could, that was my film of 2025. Thrilled Wunmi got some recognition in Gotham as she was brilliant, but Coogler, the other actors, sound & music, and cinematography all deserve recognition too (plus a few sneaky wins).
Benicio Del Toro is so good. I’ll watch him in anything. I really enjoyed OBAA but not as much as Sinners. Both great films though.
Sinners and One Battle After Another were my two favorite movies this year. My only complaint about OBAA is that it needed MORE Benicio.
Rose Byrne is definitely surging but she’s still far from a solid lock. As @AwLady mentioned, Jessie Buckley has been the one to beat for months now.