There are several big analyses on why Timothee Chalamet’s Oscar campaign failed and Michael B. Jordan’s campaign succeeded. Kyle Buchanan’s NY Times piece, which I’m discussing in this post, does a good job of explaining why Chalamet alienated Academy voters while MBJ ran a much more traditional and successful campaign. I’d just like to point out something not included in this analysis though – while MBJ won an Oscar with his first nomination, it came after many in the industry felt like he and Ryan Coogler had been overlooked several times prior. I’m still f–king mad about Fruitvale Station, and I’m sure there were some Oscar voters who felt similarly – while this was MBJ’s first nomination, it shouldn’t have been. He should have been nominated before now. Besides that, I 100% believe that MBJ simply gave a better performance in a better film. But Buchanan has many other pieces of gossip:

It’s really surprising that MBJ won: Oscar wins like Michael B. Jordan’s don’t happen very often. The 39-year-old “Sinners” star defied plenty of historical precedent on Sunday night, earning the best actor Oscar even though the academy usually makes young leading men wait a long time for that honor. Leonardo DiCaprio was nominated five times before finally winning, while Bradley Cooper, another five-time acting nominee, and Timothée Chalamet — nominated three times, including this year for “Marty Supreme” — are still waiting.

MBJ’s campaign: Jordan’s was smoothly waged on behalf of a movie voters loved, since “Sinners” was a strong contender for best picture and won three other Oscars, for its original screenplay, its score and its cinematography. In a year when the academy appeared eager to reward Jordan’s longtime collaborator, the writer-director Ryan Coogler, it also felt fitting to recognize the actor Coogler has cast in every film he’s made. Jordan is more a movie-star presence than a chameleonic character actor, but technical skill was clearly required to play his dual role as twins in “Sinners,” and he also learned a period dialect for the film. Those kinds of details often earn the respect of other performers, and they probably helped Jordan at the Actor Awards, voted on by the Screen Actors Guild.

Chalamet’s promotional blitz: To promote “Marty Supreme” in December, Chalamet embarked on an unconventional marketing blitz that had more in common with an album rollout than a movie release. In a collaboration with Aidan Zamiri, a director and creative image-maker known for his work with the pop stars Charli XCX and Billie Eilish, Chalamet’s campaign featured attention-grabbing stunts like a Sphere takeover, limited-edition merch drops and red-carpet outfits color coordinated with his girlfriend, Kylie Jenner. On a purely promotional basis, this strategy worked: “Marty Supreme” grossed $179 million worldwide and became A24’s highest-grossing movie, no small feat for a period film about table tennis. But while that flashy campaign successfully spoke to Gen-Z moviegoers, Chalamet’s subsequent Oscar push required a pivot to wooing older voters that I don’t think he ever pulled off. They wanted to be reassured of his maturity, but instead, they began to wonder if this 30-year-old was ready for their highest honor.

Chalamet skipped important events: Chalamet was a conspicuous no-show at some industry events, like the schmoozy Governors Awards in November, and arrived late to others. And while some of his braggadocio during the campaign felt more like viral marketing, given that he seemed to be channeling his “Marty Supreme” character’s almost grating self-confidence, Chalamet failed to clearly communicate that approach in the press. Eventually, voters soured on what they perceived as his entitled attitude.

The ballet & opera comments: Oscar voting had nearly closed by the time Chalamet made headlines for an event with Matthew McConaughey in which he discussed his desire to keep moviegoing at the forefront of culture, saying, “I don’t want to be working in ballet or opera or, you know, things where it’s like, ‘Hey, keep this thing alive, even though no one cares about this anymore.’” Still, the backlash to those comments proved how disenchanted many people had already become with him over the course of the campaign. Even Steven Spielberg, about as neutral a Hollywood figure as you can find, got a jab in at Chalamet’s expense during a panel during a panel at South by Southwest.

MBJ carried himself like Cary Grant: So how did Jordan manage what Chalamet couldn’t? Part of it comes down to a more traditional campaign, as Jordan carried himself with the finesse of a classic movie star, in contrast to Chalamet’s more chaotic, headline-grabbing approach.

The SAG/Actor Awards were a turning point: Jordan’s Screen Actors Guild win on March 1 was met with such enthusiasm — even the presenter Viola Davis was overcome — that Oscar voters ultimately decided to keep those good times going. And while the academy often prefers to reward a veteran in this category, the 39-year-old Jordan probably gained an advantage from his contrast with Chalamet, appearing more mature and better equipped to handle the honor.

Oscar voters wanted a bankable younger star: Though they are often derided for being out of step with the tastes of young audiences, I suspect that the continuing fear and uncertainty about the future of moviegoing has prodded academy members to invest in the few bankable young stars they can boast of. At a party the night before the Oscars, I spoke to a well-connected insider who predicted Jordan would win. “It’s what the industry wants,” he said simply. “And it’s good for the industry.”

[From The NY Times]

I think all of this is correct – Chalamet’s campaign turned off Oscar voters and he seemed brash, self-centered and immature. Whereas Warner Bros did so much to promote Sinners as a complete project, with everyone involved, and not just making it about MBJ (which ended up helping MBJ’s chances, because he looks like what he is, a team player). Do I also think that voters wanted to pat themselves on the back for giving the Oscar to MBJ, arguably one of the few true movie stars of his generation? Probably. Do I also think MBJ simply gave a better performance in a much better film? Also yes. And as we saw at the Oscars and the SAG/Actor Awards, Jordan is simply very popular and well-liked overall. He’s worked in the industry since he was a kid, he’s put in good work for decades and he approached this awards season with grace, maturity and charisma. He repeatedly put the focus on his costars and Ryan Coogler and everyone else too, while Timmy made it all about himself.

Photos courtesy of Avalon Red.