Over the holidays, I finally watched several of the big Oscar-bait films of 2023. I watched Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Anatomy of a Fall, Asteroid City, The Holdovers and I started (but did not finish) Saltburn. I think these films represent some of the biggest performances of the year and some of the most likely Oscar nominees – like, some of the Best Actor nomination locks are: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) and Leo DiCaprio (Killers). There are many arguing that Bradley Cooper is a lock for a nomination for Maestro, but given the sh-tty reviews and everyone rolling their eyes at B-Coop’s try-hardness, I wouldn’t even call Maestro a lock for ANY nominations. The other possible best-actor nominees will likely include Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn, but doubtful), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) or Colman Domingo (Rustin).
This whole time, I’ve sort of considered Cillian Murphy the one to beat in the Best Actor race. The film hinged on his performance, he was genuinely brilliant in it, he’s been around forever and done great work consistently, and Oppenheimer was one of the biggest films of the year. Like, of course the Oscar is Cillian’s to lose, right? Well, the New York Times’ critic and awards-season specialist Kyle Buchanan had a different thought:
I think Best Actor is Giamatti's for the taking https://t.co/cTySTN45ok
— Kyle Buchanan (@kylebuchanan) December 25, 2023
After seeing The Holdovers… I’m not sure I agree, but it’s an interesting thought. Giamatti is wonderful in the film, The Holdovers is one of Alexander Payne’s best, and Giamatti is a truly beloved American actor, churning out great performances consistently in film and television. If Oscar voters think that they’re giving Giamatti an Oscar for his career, I could see him challenging Cillian’s chances. What’s even funnier about this Murphy vs. Giamatti head-to-head is that I’m not sure either man cares that much. My thought was “well, it will come down to who wages the better Oscar campaign,” but let’s be real – Cillian will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to those Oscar-voter screenings and the man isn’t a glad-hander or an ass-kisser. Giamatti might be more into it – he already seems to be doing the Oscar-voter screenings and glad-handing, just in a quiet way. Anyway, it’s interesting. The Best Actor race might be super-competitive this year.
Oh, and Giamatti was on the SAG-AFTRA picket line too. That will matter to a lot of pro-union Oscar voters.
Photos courtesy of Cover Images, ‘The Holdovers’ posters courtesy of Focus Features.
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- UK premiere of Oppenheimer, at the Odeon Luxe, Leicester Square in London. Featuring: Cillian Murphy Where: London, United Kingdom When: 13 Jul 2023 Credit: Nils Jorgensen/INSTARimages
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- Lucy Liu and other celebrities at SAG AFTRA Picket Line in NYC Netflix HQ. Featuring: Paul Giamatti, Carla Gugino Where: New York, New York, United States When: 31 Jul 2023 Credit: Janet Mayer/startraksphoto.com
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- Lucy Liu and other celebrities at SAG AFTRA Picket Line in NYC Netflix HQ. Featuring: Paul Giamatti Where: New York, New York, United States When: 31 Jul 2023 Credit: Janet Mayer/startraksphoto.com
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- Actor Paul Giamatti visits ‘The Today Show’ in New York Featuring: Paul Giamatti Where: New York, New York, United States When: 16 Nov 2023 Credit: Roger Wong/INSTARimages
At a minimum, Maestro is a lock for a hair and make-up Oscar nomination. Each Academy branch’s members vote on the nominations for their own branch and the hair and make-up branch members greatly respect the expertise and craft of Maestro’s hair and make-up.
The fake Jewish nose makes that problematic.
Even in this super-competitive Best Actress year, I think Carey Mulligan will get nominated. Even the less-than-stellar reviews have praised her.
Giamatti is a great actor, but Murphy’s performance was truly outstanding and it was the anchor for Oppenheimer.
There used to be a pizza slice shop on court street in downtown Brooklyn. Near the movie theater. Maybe it’s still there? Anyways, all that to say, around 10 years ago, I once sat in the almost empty back room eating pizza. And the only other person back there eating pizza with me was Paul Giamatti 😂. I haven’t seen either film yet so I can’t say who should win. I’d love to run into Cillian Murphy one day but might freak out if it was on an airplane.
Queen! Sadly, it has closed. It was an institution!
Oh man, it really was.
Man, Queen was the best. I used to see Giamatti walking his kid to school almost every morning in Brooklyn. I’ve heard stories that he’s stand-offish and cold to fans but he occasionally nodded at me and seemed just like a very normal Brooklyn dad. Unrelated, I was expecting not much from The Holdovers but absolutely loved it.
I cant be the only person tired of the important straight white man who was kind of terrible biopic who would love to vote for something else
eyeroll…
This is the first that I’ve heard about The Leftovers and having just watched the trailer, it looks like a great movie! Thanks for the recommendation!!
Pajiba did a write up with the trailer recently and based on that I really want to see it too. Looks like we get it in the Uk on the 19th so I’ve added it to my cinema watchlist.
Cillian Murphy carries a 3 hour movie in Oppenheimer.
He’s done a ton of publicity in support of it.
I still think he is a lock for best actor.
This is the first I’ve even heard of The Holdovers.
Unfortunately, Academy voters seem to go for films that “haven’t found their audience,” which is why they are sliding in irrelevance.
But isn’t it about which movies are the best–not ones that “found their audience?” Vertigo, Citizen Kane–the list of movies that are now acclaimed, but did badly upon release is a long one. Aren’t the Golden Globes for movies that are audience-pleasers?
If Bradley Cooper doesn’t even get nominated, it will make my day or even my year. He has become the most insufferable celebrity. They should give him an award for that. But I’m afraid what he’s really going for is best director. He literally directed Maestro in a style he thought would help him get that Oscar according to reviews I have read. The giant Snoopy floating past the window while Leonard and Felicia are having an argument on Thanksgiving is already legendary for its “pick me” vibes. He would settle for best actor though, I’m sure.
It’s definitely a battle between the 2 of them but I wouldn’t be surprised if Jeremy Wright sneaks in there too. American Fiction is a delight
No. The big question here is if anybody cares who wins. People aren’t going to the movies like they used to. And they sure aren’t going to the theatres as much. All the studios jumped on the streaming bandwagon. But there aren’t enough people to support all of them. Except for Sony. They still just make movies and then liscense them out to others. All entertainment needs to stop acting like it was before the pandemic. The world changed and it never goes back to the way it was. And they aren’t changing with it.
Movies were arguably in trouble before covid. Tickets were expensive in a struggling economy. And once you winnowed out the endless reboots, remakes, and superhero-movies-that-just-weren’t-that-good, there was not much to watch. After covid–forget it. There’s even less to watch (I’m seeing movies premiering that I’ve never even heard of, and I’ve been a movie buff for years.) The tickets are still pricey. And people got used to finding other forms of entertainment–especially streaming, which made life easier for a lot of folks. Add to that the fact everyone is overworked/trying to cut costs, and people will opt for the easiest media option–which ain’t movie theaters unless the studios start upping their game considerably.
Giamatti would LOVE to win an Oscar.
Who is counting out Scorsese directed Leo for the win? Anyone else is an upset.
I will forever be biased in favor of Cillian Murphy.
Lots of people I know are recommending Saltburn but it sounds too dark/twisted for Oscar voters.
Agreed about PG. He already has a number of Emmy’s, Golden Globes, and SAG awards to his name, an Oscar would complete the collection.
I haven’t seen a single Oscar contender film all year, I seriously need to catch up, and Oppenheimer is at the top of my list (and apparently The Holdovers now needs to be added).
I figure Giamatti should have won for Shoot ‘Em Up–but I’m funny that way. 😉🙃
I’m still holding out hope that Charles Melton gets a nod for “May-December”!
He was nominated in the supporting category at the Golden Globes, so he likely wouldn’t be competing against Giamatti and Murphy.
Gotcha, thanks for the head’s up! : )
I am completely over these films which seem to exist only to get Oscar nominations. They have no real audience beyond Academy voters. What’s even worse is that the Academy often seems to want to stick it to the movie audiences. I really hope Maestro gets shut out of the nominations. Maybe these too noble biopics will end.
So, um, “Everything Everywhere All At Once” had no real audience? Really? 🙄 I figure that people have begun to resent the Oscars because they represent yet another aspiration average folks can’t reach without money/connections. As well, the awards come at the end of a long awards season. By then, seeing the same privileged, often-smug faces show after show after show is not only irritating, but kills any rooting interest in who gets the darn Oscar. It’s a case of oversaturation, and viewers find it easy to tune out.
Robert Phillips says,
You make a very good point. And I agree with you.
I do know IRL, my area of the multi-screen theaters is in trouble.
They often run “special” times/tickets trying to get the college kids/retired folks into the movies.
$4 tickets M, T, W at 11:00, 1:00 and 3:00. And still lots of empty seats.
The Oscars have lost a lot of popularity and status since 2019.
The current, open, constant campaigning turns me off.
Actors paid tens of millions should be enough. But the open Ego need is too much.
Cillian Murphy seems a lock. If not, I will lead the “He was robbed” protest.
Without CM, there is no Oppenheimer.
Nolan has huge respect in HW. Best director will go to either Nolan or Scorsese.
Bradley Cooper does not have the looks or talent to have reached the level he has, IMO.
Cooper as best director? In his dreams.
Cillian has been campaigning constantly…. He’s done Q&As, roundtables, interviews, screenings, etc for the past 2 months…it’s not like he gets to choose, it’s his job and Universal controls these campaigns. You can’t just ‘opt out’ because you’re above it or some other delusional take like an actor is some sort of purist. Murphy will win the Oscar, there is no contest. It doesn’t matter if the general public thinks the Oscars are outdated – to people who work in the industry, they’re still just as important. And frankly it doesn’t matter what the genpop thinks, it’s the industry who puts weight on it.
Cillian Murphy was terrific as Oppenheimer.
I’m not a Giamatti fan. Maybe it’s his voice or his semi-smirky facial expression, but I’ve never “appreciated” his acting since I first saw him in “Sideways” then “John Adams.”
Cillian for the win.
You can’t say there’s no an audience for Oppenheimer, the movie was the second most successful of the year behind Barbie for “less than mere” 100 millions.
Of course people will be rooting for Barbenheimer when it comes down to prices and awards.
I hope Cooper do gets nominated, does the pushiest campaign just to end up losing as per usual, it’s just too fun.
Hey, Kaiser–why did you give up on Saltburn? Thanks!