The voting closed for the Oscar nominations yesterday, and the nominations will be announced next Tuesday, the 23rd. The Oscars will be held on March 10th, which I actually think is a great date – it’s not too late, not too early. I hated when they used to hold the Oscars in February, everything was too rushed. A longer voting period gives Oscar voters a chance to really see all of the films, and every year, one of my favorite awards-season subsets are the “honest Oscar ballot” series, which many trade papers do now – they sit with Oscar voters as they fill out their ballots and the voters explain why and how they’re voting. Well, Variety has a new variation on that – they spoke to voters from various AMPAS branches as they filled out their nomination ballots to see which way the wind was blowing for the nominations. Here are some of the “takeaways” (you can read the full Variety piece here).

There could be a historic number of women nominated for Best Director: The Producers Guild of America nominated three movies directed by women: “Anatomy of a Fall,” “Barbie” and “Past Lives.” If the three translate to the Oscars‘ Best Picture lineup, it will be the most films directed by women to be nominated. Only 19 movies helmed by female filmmakers have been recognized by the Academy. Of those, only four Oscar lineups have included two female-directed movies — 2009 (“An Education” and winner “The Hurt Locker”), 2010 (“The Kids Are All Right” and “Winter’s Bone”), 2020 (“Promising Young Woman” and winner “Nomadland”) and 2021 (“The Power of the Dog” and winner “CODA”). Things look promising, but you can never count out a surprise omission.

Greta Gerwig has a 50/50 shot: The billion-dollar question surrounding Warner Bros’ “Barbie” is will its director, Greta Gerwig, receive enough votes from the Directors Branch? Given the genre, and the impression that as one AMPAS member told Variety, “at the end of the day, it’s just a Barbie movie,” could that prevent the past nominee for “Lady Bird” (2017) from making the cut? You can point to genre bias or simply that other visions are generating passionate responses (i.e., Jonathan Glazer for “The Zone of Interest”).

“Saltburn” is surging. Emerald Fennell’s sexy thriller has been the talk of the town and the internet, generating polarizing responses from various branches. Amazon MGM’s campaign has also garnered attention, with FYC ads featuring the notorious bathtub drain seen on Sunset Blvd in Los Angeles (a brilliant move).

“The Color Purple” is slumping. “The Color Purple” is critically lauded but has struggled to get essential recognition from critical guilds such as art directors, costume designers, and hair and makeup. With only a SAG nom for cast ensemble under its belt, the musical remake of the 1985 classic is relying on Actors Branch support with members coming through for possible nominees such as Danielle Brooks. Historically, a musical performance has never been the sole nomination for its movie. So, either predict “Color Purple” for other categories or (unfortunately) project a shutout of the picture.

“Origin” is still going for it in best picture: Industry heavy hitters such as Cher and Angelina Jolie have voiced support for Ava DuVernay’s harrowing drama, leading social media chatter to speculate that a possible “To Leslie-esque” surprise could be brewing for its star Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (coincidentally, Andrea Riseborough attended a screening). However, based on discussions with voters, there’s a feeling the movie could become the first movie since “The Ox-Bow Incident” (1943) to be nominated solely for best picture. With 10 slots, I presume anything is possible.

What’s going on with the Poor Things actors: Two supporting actor nominees have hailed from the same movie for four years running. This year, “Poor Things” co-stars Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo have been inconsistent in being recognized together at the televised awards ceremonies. Only Golden Globes, which nominates six, had both men in their lineup. With SAG going for Dafoe and snubbing Ruffalo, with BAFTA leaving Dafoe off its initial longlist but including Ruffalo, it’s a coin flip if both, one, or even any of them make the cut. With “American Fiction” and “The Holdovers” gaining momentum (which helps bids for Sterling K. Brown and Dominic Sessa), your guess is as good as mine.

What’s going on with Maestro: In 2020, another monochromatic period drama, “Mank” from director David Fincher, led the nomination tally with 10, but missed two critical categories — original screenplay and editing. Regarding Bradley Cooper’s part black-and-white portrait of composer Leonard Bernstein, the biopic looks solid for spots in best picture, lead acting, and a handful of techs. Nonetheless, original screenplays with other artisan races are on the bubble, leaving the Netflix feature in a range of between five and 10 nominations (which is quite large for a Best Picture hopeful). Often, the streamer has come out on the higher end of the nom tally.

[From Variety]

The Greta Gerwig discussion is bizarre – Gerwig has been nominated at every major award show thus far, including the Directors Guild. She directed the biggest movie of 2023, and she took a huge swing, and it was a return to old-fashioned movie-making, with physical sets instead of greenscreen and CGI. She will get nominated. The question is: will Justine Triet (Anatomy) or Celine Song? Song and Triet are more “on the fence” than Gerwig.

While I think Bradley Cooper is popular within all of the right voting blocs, I would love it if Maestro is snubbed for several big awards, including Best Actor. It actually feels like that could happen, because all of the conversations in recent weeks have been about Oppenheimer, The Holdovers, Anatomy, etc. It feels like Cooper isn’t even in the mix of “I really hope this performance is recognized.”

What else – Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo have both been nominated for Oscars (and lost every time), so it’s a toss up – from what I understand, Ruffalo’s role was more “showy” or Oscar-baity, and I still say he should have won for Spotlight (Oscar voters might feel the same, I’m just saying). I don’t think Saltburn will get many noms, but the Academy does love Emerald Fennell, and Rosamund Pike might sneak in because supporting actress seems like a toss up beyond Da’Vine Joy Randolph (who is pretty much a sure thing for the Oscar).

Also: I would love it if some unexpected people snuck in with nominations, like Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) or Milo Machado Graner (Anatomy of a Fall) in supporting actor.

Photos courtesy of Avalon Red.