Is Kamala Harris projecting the right balance of urgency & confidence in the closing days?

In recent weeks, I’ve been curious to see what the Harris-Walz campaign’s internal numbers look like. The campaign is doing two things simultaneously: projecting calm, steady confidence in the closing days AND talking about how everything will come down to the wire. I get it – they don’t want to walk around like they’ve got this thing won, even if that’s what their internals say. They’ve still got to get people out to vote, they’ve got to keep the heightened urgency, because the last thing anyone wants is a bunch of Harris voters in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia skipping out because they think she’s got in the bag. Speaking of, CNN had this interesting interview with David Plouffe (former Obama campaign manager and Harris’s senior advisor):

“Historically, it would be unusual to have seven states come down to a point or less,” David Plouffe, Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign manager who now serves as a senior adviser to Harris, said of the battleground landscape. “But I think at this point, you have to assume that’s a distinct possibility.”

Plouffe and other Harris advisers do not believe Trump’s largely outsourced door-knocking and other on-the-ground outreach operations can match what the national Democrats and the Harris campaign – which inherited some of the same team from President Joe Biden – spent a year putting together. But they believe this advantage can only take them so far.

“Democrats wish Donald Trump wouldn’t get more than 46% of the vote,” Plouffe said, referring to the national popular vote percentage the former president secured in his previous campaigns. But in the battleground states, “that’s not reality. He’s going to get up to 48% in all of these states. And so we just have to make sure we’re hitting our win number, which depending on the state, could be 50, could be 49.5.”

Plouffe and other Harris aides, though, believe that the vice president still has room to grow. To get there, the campaign is finalizing marquee, attention-grabbing events showcasing Harris, with symbolic backdrops aimed at driving home the message.

“The goal is to make sure that you’re motivating your operation, that you’re being felt in all these places,” said Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a Harris campaign co-chair. With Harris aides still on a frantic chase to find disengaged voters, much of that outreach will come in the form of campaign tactics that are new to presidential campaigns – some that rely on new technology. Campaign aides believe they can make the difference via the surrogates they have lined up, whether those are celebrities making targeted social media appearances or community members sending direct texts like the attendees at a Doug Emhoff event in Southfield, Michigan, with Jewish voters, who were asked to send messages encouraging people to host “Kamala Shabbat” dinners.

The Harris aides CNN spoke to expressed a jittery self-confidence, but they also kept using phrases such as“jump ball” and “down to the wire” and the occasional emoji with nauseous green cheeks.

While several top Democratic operatives said they worry Harris may be losing the traditional TV ad wars in the face of Republicans’ extensive and intense attacks on transgender issues, the Harris aides disagreed. Most of the up-for-grabs voters aren’t paying attention to those ads if they’re watching TV at all, the aides contended. And the campaign believes it has the edge over Trump’s operation, thanks to months of precinct-by-precinct organizing and planning that is constantly being adjusted based on early vote and online data. All through “brat summer” and the tent revival-like atmosphere of the Democratic convention, aides said, this was what they were planning for: a stable race that will be won on the margins and that will require a few big swings that some political insiders may see as desperate Hail Mary moves.

[From CNN]

I realize that I’m unusual in how I consume media, but I’ve barely seen any political commercials on TV in recent months because I’ve barely watched network television since the Olympics, which was where VP Harris bought a lot of ad time. It makes sense that the Trump campaign’s calculations are old-school like that – ad buys and staged stunts at McDonald’s, plus some sleepy town halls. There are several things which worry me about the Trump campaign’s operations though: the disappearance of JD Vance (the most unpopular running mate in history) and Trump leaning into the bro podcasts, with a heavy emphasis on misogyny. But yeah… the Harris-Walz campaign is acting like they know exactly what they’re doing.

Photos courtesy of Cover Images.

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71 Responses to “Is Kamala Harris projecting the right balance of urgency & confidence in the closing days?”

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  1. Ciotog says:

    My anxiety is ratcheted way up this week, with Election Day so close. We could lose everything. I truly hope that the Harris campaign’s predictions are right.

    • the Robinsons says:

      Stop worrying folks, just do your part and Vote. Thetrumpera is over as of Nov 5th 2024.

    • Kelly says:

      I’m so nervous too. Unfortunately Tennessee is pretty solidly red. It does mean however that I’ve seen more Kamala ads-I guess the orange menace isn’t bothering to spend any money here. Interestingly I’ve seen a lot of ads between Blackburn and Gloria Johnson since that senate seat is up for grabs. I hope Gloria wins but it will be a long shot. I proudly voted for Kamala and straight ticket democrat last week

      • TN Dem says:

        Same here Kelly. Voted straight Democratic ticket here in Williamson County.

      • Juls says:

        Same, voted dem down ticket here in Hamilton county. Took my first time voter son too and he did the same! It felt good even though this state is so red. I’ve been having heart palpitations the past couple of months (seriously, I had to wear a monitor for 2 weeks that confirmed the irregularities). This election is adversely affecting my health!

      • TN Democrat says:

        The ads with she who mustn’t be named (Blackburn) breaking the China patterned dishes are some of the most bizarre political ads I have ever seen. It blows my mind that anyone would would consider voting for her, let alone that polling indicates she has a 20% advantage over Gloria Johnson. The magats are a poison to the country, but particularly in TN because people are totally voting against their self-interest.

    • BeanieBean says:

      I believe in Kamala Harris. I believe in Tim Walz. I believe in their campaign. And I believe they are ready if things get ugly on November 5 or maybe November 6, or January 20. I believe.

    • McGee says:

      If I may recommend for those who need a pick-me-up from the nerves etc.

      Pls the DNC Rollcall playlist on Spotify. It brought me back emotionally to that delightful, hopeful, beautiful moment in which we in all the states (and territories, etc) came together, unified in joy and our commitment to turning the effin’ page.

      Gave me fortitude for the days ahead. I’ve been playing it on Tuesdays (“Tuesdays till Triumph” is my private nickname for it), and will continue to do so.

      Big hugs to y’all from the Pacific Northwest!

  2. girl_ninja says:

    All gas! NO. BREAKS. There are still opportunities to volunteer if you are looking. 👇🏾

    https://go.kamalaharris.com/resources/volunteer/

    • DiMi says:

      Thank you for this link! I love having this information in one place!!!

      This election is stressful because it’s so close, but Kamal can and will win!!

    • Debbie says:

      At this point, I’m avoiding all polls whether they’re favorable or not. In addition to making sure I have enough meds to calm me down if the worst happens on election night, I figure that the best I can do is to “Do Something” as Michelle Obama said. Since I live in a blue state, I went to New Hampshire to canvass with a friend. On Thursday, I will be doing some phone canvassing in Georgia. That way, I feel more empowered about doing something and it calms me to know that at least I tried. By the way, to the people who say, “My vote doesn’t count,” first of all don’t ever say that. Secondly, there are also down ballot races that also matter. It also sends a bad message. Take it from an immigrant.

      By this time, I figure that the Harris-Walz campaign is doing everything it can to reach people, and they’ll keep trying until election day. By now though, we all know what Trump and “Trumpism” stands for: All the media players who still insist on sane-washing his delusional malignancy, the columnists who don’t accurately cover his neo-confederate, fascist statements, the so-called undecided voters who are just really embarrassed Trump supporters or habitually uninvolved people, or people with influence who are still silent. If WE don’t do our part, then it’s not on the Harris-Waltz ticket, it’s on us.

      • orangeowl says:

        “By the way, to the people who say, ‘My vote doesn’t count,’ first of all don’t ever say that. Secondly, there are also down ballot races that also matter.”

        YES! I just heard some strategists this morning talking about how everyone lives within 90 minutes of a competitive House race. The House is absolutely winnable and every single vote matters. Dems are also facing tough Senate races. The Senate is almost as critical as the presidency. So much work ewe can still do between now and Nov 5!

      • girl_ninja says:

        Sending you so much love and positive thoughts Debbie! Thank you doing your part to save our democracy and lives. xxoo

        I will be making call this weekend and next week. I sent post cards out to PA and to OH to help Senator Brown. Take care and know that we are unit, and we will win! 🙌🏾

      • Debbie says:

        I really appreciate your words, @girl_ninja. God bless this community. It was my refuge during the Trump years. I spent a lot of online time here instead of absorbing every wayward and misspelled Trump tweet. No more “Cofefes.”

        #We Won’t Go Back!

  3. Ashley says:

    The Economist just data-predicted a Trump victory despite a Harris popular vote. They’re in shock, they say.

    For Americans, this is going to be a tough fight no matter what.

    • Dee(2) says:

      Ask Sam Wayne how that bug tasted that he had to eat after saying Hillary Clinton had over a 99% chance of winning in 2016. Data analysis is basically still just dice rolling.

      • girl_ninja says:

        Allan Litchtman still stands by his prediction that Madam Harris will win.
        He also predicted DT would win in 2016 when so many said that Hillary would win.

        What matters is that WE put the work in. That is how we win.

      • Dee(2) says:

        Sam Wang

      • Jaded says:

        @girl_ninja – Allan Litchtman is the only prognosticator I believe too. But I also believe it’s going to be close and all MAGA hell is going to break loose, it’ll be an ugly few weeks after Nov. 5 because of course the Tangerine Turd will never concede.

      • Tiffany :) says:

        The GOP released a flurry of unreliable polling as a way to discredit the election outcome. It is intended to depress Democratic enthusiasm . Most polling did not predict the flood of support from female voters in places like Kansas during the midterms. Essentially, polls are meaningless. We have to feel joy like we are winning, but fight like we are losing.

      • Brassy Rebel says:

        Ignore the polls! Please! Follow Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonier on twitter.

      • Dee(2) says:

        Exactly. Look at the cross tabs on some of those recent polls from last week which most by the way came from conservative leaning posters, including Donald Trump’s own personal in-house pollster. We’re talking Trump somehow winning the youth vote in their samples, him getting 25% of the African-American vote, them only being 5% apart on women, and even with these frankly ridiculous metrics somehow he still was only winning in their polls by 1 to 2%. Two big things I hope happen after this election if it goes the way we all want, the media and their complicity in coverage of Trump and his fascism is deeply called out, and the absolute broken polling industry admits that and figures out a way to still be relevant.

    • JD says:

      Oh no! It is for the rest of the world, too.
      FML.

    • blueberry says:

      Well it’s a safe bet that a Republican won’t win the popular vote. They only get into power through our pitiful electoral college system.

  4. yipyip says:

    I’m still worried.
    K/W need to go all out, in strategy and do everything to lock down those swing states.
    Take no chances. Leave no crack for Trump to slime thru.

    Musk needs to be watched, and 100% keep an eye out for Trump trying to lie, cheat, steal the election. Nothing would surprise me from Trump.
    That damn electorial vote is BS!
    I saw on NYP last night, claims that Trump is ahead.
    God help us.

  5. Qtpi says:

    I see it as a good sign that she is traveling to Texas to rally with Allred.

    Dems have overperformed since Roe was overturned. Even in smaller elections in off months.

    • LBB says:

      Yes, it is a BIG deal that she is coming to Texas this week! Her internal polling must be telling her team something. We have a very strong ground game this cycle and Allred is looking so good against Cruz! I’m hopeful, if by some chance she gets TX or FL and NC, it is game over.

  6. I think she is doing great. It’s the other side that wants you to think she isn’t. Stay the course!!! Get out and vote blue because our lives and democracy do depend on it!!!!!

  7. Dee(2) says:

    I trust that they know what they’re doing. I voted on Monday and I have not received another text for voting. I think this is where they’re focusing their attention the most, getting people that haven’t voted out for early voting, and people that are low propensity voters out to vote period. I don’t pay attention to the polls anymore, or data analysis because it can frequently be wrong when it’s this close. GOTV that’s all you can do at this point.

    • Brassy Rebel says:

      That’s why they want you to vote early. Then they can cross you off the list and concentrate on less engaged voters.

  8. Nicole says:

    What worries me is the amount of foreign interference and money that pouring into this race. Also the amount of tech money that is being donated to Trump. In addition, Republicans are actively working to rig the game. I do feel a little comfort in that the Republican ground game is shit. I’m hoping that the Nikki Haley Republicans turn out for Harris.

  9. Nanea says:

    There are so many unknowns, besides everything already mentioned here like foreign interference, threats made by Republicans against the integrity of the voting/vote counting process, or tech bro billionaires trying to buy votes.

    One of those unknown factors is the appeal of third-party candidates to “undecided” voters — and somehow I haven’t read much about what kind of damage these candidates can do, especially in battleground states.

    Can’t it be Nov. 6th already, please? It’s all a bit much right now, especially with timezones and me often being a part of Team Insomnia for health-related reasons.

  10. Miranda says:

    I trust that the campaign knows what they’re doing. I trust that their internal numbers are better sourced than the polls we’re seeing elsewhere. All the rest of us can do is vote, and fight complacency.

    I really want to thank everybody here who is trying to keep this all in perspective, stay positive, and point out Republican tricks. Anxiety is, unfortunately, my default when it comes to life in general, so at times like this, I desperately need reassuring from people outside my bubble, who are prone to just telling me what they think I want to hear to keep me calm.

  11. LarkspurLM says:

    I watched some videos on Twitter of people in “red” states describing how long the voting lines were and their emotion of voting for KH/TW. I hope they weren’t fake…but I got emotional watching.

    Agree with the comment that after your vote is registered, the solicitations will cease. I’m voting tonight and dropping off ballot tomorrow. CA voter here, the ballot is tracked during the whole process.

    VOTE!
    WE CAN DO THIS!

    • blueberry says:

      In Harris County Texas (includes Houston) the lines were 1-2 hours at some places. I’ve heard the records were broken. I don’t think she can actually pull off a win in TX but hopefully Ted Cruz will get the boot!

  12. Brassy Rebel says:

    I have days of anxiety still, but they are fewer and farther between now. There are signs that the campaign is growing in confidence as is the candidate. Lately, she has taken to reassuring us, “We will win. We will win!” Also I recommend that everyone Google her Michigan Town Hall on Monday with Liz Cheney. At the very end, when Maria Shriver tells her how anxious and sleep deprived everyone is, she gives an extemporaneous speech which I think will go down in history. One hundred years from now school kids will be reciting this speech the way today’s kids recite the Gettysburg Address. I call it the “We Cannot Despair” speech. Seriously, check it out.

    • Jaded says:

      Just watched it, it is sooo moving — and I’m Canadian but realize what happens to our next door neighbour happens to us, and the rest of the world frankly. I love Cheney’s quote “You can vote your conscience and not ever have to say a word to anybody.” Brilliant.

  13. Kay says:

    I don’t think we’re in for another 2020 where she eeks out a tiny margin of victory. She either loses by a whisper, or wins by substantially more than we’re anticipating. I’m the farthest thing from a conspiracy theorist, but the anecdotal stories from all over, including deep red areas, just don’t line up with Trump outperforming 2020. The media is CLEARLY trying to milk our collective anxiety and they have a vested interest in a tight race. I am leaning much more towards “she will outperform even the most optimistic expectations”, but 2016 has ruined any ability to be confident in a victory.

    If the polls end up being right and we barely walk away with a win, or (worst case) we end up with a second orange menace presidential term, it’ll be the most demoralizing thing I can imagine. Harris has run a campaign that is as close to flawless as any human being and political organization can manage. The enthusiasm, the money, it doesn’t make sense to lose unless the MAGA cancer really has progressed THAT far, in which case, we have a huge and long-term issue that is even worse than the very-bad issue we currently face.

  14. yipyip says:

    Just my opinion, but I think getting the under 45 y/o vote for K/W will be a big issue.
    So many I know, IRL 24-40 y/o, have been saying they feel hopeless and do not plan to vote at all. No amount of talking is changing their minds so far.

    K/W can not take anything for granted.

    • Square2 says:

      “…IRL 24-40 y/o, have been saying they feel hopeless and do not plan to vote at all. ”

      Those people are NOT hopeless, they are F!*king cowards. Most likely they are the people who will be affected less if that felony wins.

      Using “hopeless” to not voting is despicable. Terminal illness could be hopeless; rock-bottom poor could be hopeless; being a citizen who can vote & choose not to do it is not a valid excuse for hopeless.

  15. wolfmamma says:

    My big fear is the shenanigans that Trump and all of the Repugnants, judges, SCOTUS and dark money are capable of.
    There is no low they will not stoop to.
    Their desperation is palpable.
    Praying for the Well Being of all because that is what is at stake.

    • Meredith says:

      Those shenanigans didn’t work while he was sitting president. I have confidence that democracy will hold when he’s just a candidate.

  16. Jacques says:

    Hopefully “soft” Republican’s can be persuaded to vote for Harris. If not, then let’s hope they choose a third party candidate to take votes from Trump.

  17. I would feel a lot more confident if the system was majority vote = winner, without the electoral college. If trump wins while losing the popular vote it will bring that system into further disrepute. The will of the American people on issues like abortion and gun control will be thwarted. Really hoping that doesn’t happen.

  18. Sue says:

    What are y’all doing on Election Day to keep your anxiety down? My boss gave us the day off, so I don’t know what I’m going to do with myself all day besides vote. I suppose I could volunteer to drive voters to their polling places who otherwise couldn’t get there. I live in a red area of a solidly Blue state but I think it’s still important to show that people have confidence in the Democrats.

    • Kay says:

      I’ve been inching closer to being “sober except on vacations” in the recent year, just because I don’t think a near-nightly glass of wine is a great habit to have, but I’ll be out of town for a conference and I fully intend to eat and drink myself into a stupor in the hotel room.

      • Sue says:

        @Kay – Good for you for cutting down! That is admirable. I actually got sober recently so imbibing is not an option for me. Looking back on it now, I realize it just made my anxiety worse.
        I recall getting very drunk the night before Dump’s Inauguration – I lived right in the middle of D.C. and was terrified of what the day would bring. And that next day was just awful, made worse by my “hangxiety”.

    • Ciotog says:

      Definitely offer to drive folks to the polls. I’m an election worker on the 5th, which is one way of not stressing too much.

    • North of Boston says:

      I’m conflicted … I work full time and was debating taking election day off to do something (driving, sign waving) so that I’m not a ball of nerves at work

      But maybe being at work will be a good distraction?

      And maybe I’ll take the day after off to celebrate? Or day drink while wailing in dispair?

  19. yipyip says:

    Just saw a post that claims 1.6% difference between Harris and Trump in the polls.
    HOW can that possibly be true?

    If Harris and the Dems don’t win all down the ticket, I predict streets full of angry protesters. I will be among them.

  20. megz says:

    Everyone get out and VOTE!

  21. Jenepooh says:

    I remember 2016 when we were all certain that Hillary was going to win. I will NEVER be able to relax knowing that she won the popular vote by over 7 million but Trump won the presidency because of the electoral college. We are facing the same thing, again, and I am still carrying too much PTSD to believe that we “have it in the bag” this time around.

    • bisynaptic says:

      Hillary’s popular vote margin was lower than 7 million. You’re probably thinking of Biden’s popular vote margin.

  22. ML says:

    In my bubble, Harris et al has done a terrific job with Democrats! Everyone I know who can vote, has done so. I know via the family grapevine that no one of any political persuasion has stayed home, so it will come down to getting harder to motivate Democrats/ people who face obstacles to voting/ encouraging independents and Never Trump Republicans. Kamala Harris needs to overcome an Electoral College bias, the way Trump gets covered in the news, gerrymandering and lawsuits and voter suppression, misinformation and foreign interference, as well as people who have difficulty with her (background, gender, state, profession, etc). Clearly, more people have donated their time and money to help elect her and/ or to keep Trump from turning the States into a dictatorship. And the fact that Kamala has helped downballot candidates and is heading to Texas are good signs of confidence. Hopefully, it will be enough💙

  23. bisynaptic says:

    I’m cautiously optimistic that it will be a Harris-Walz rout. Having said that, I must add that Trump is increasingly acting as if he does not need the popular vote, even in swing states. I wonder what they have up their sleeve.

  24. Eliza says:

    Ok so I just read where Nate Silver is saying Trump will win. Is he a has-been? Is he a Republican operative?

    I’m completely baffled it is so close.

    • Wendy says:

      well, he’s fully funded by Peter Thiel, who’s also funding Trump and who funded JD Vance’s Senate run in 2022, so…

  25. LisaN says:

    I live in a Red state. As strong as I am in my conviction that my vote matters, I am also feeling like I am a small drop in a meaningless bucket. Our state (NC) is so gerrymandered that they have taken away every option for Dems. Sigh. I feel like I am screaming into the wind.

  26. Gracie says:

    I used to work campaigns, and there’s great money in polling – I wouldn’t put too much stock into them. When I went to put my ballot in the box, there was a line…to get to the box in a mail-in state. Mostly women. It’s rich the Repubs accuse Dems of cheating when they’ve been gerrymandering for decades. They know they cannot win popular votes anymore. I hope with all I’ve got we don’t fail ourselves again.

  27. lizbert says:

    I am not one for conspiracy theories, but I’m tempted to believe that Bigly’s numbers are being inflated by an influx of low-quality, Republican-leaning polls IN ORDER to create the perception of a closer race – making a Harris win less plausible in the minds of the Orange One’s supporters. In other words, make it SEEM like a razor’s edge so that a Kamala blowout will be suspect :/

  28. Sara says:

    I think unfortunately it’s going to be much closer than people anticipated with Harris winning just by a bit. But as a non-American I will say that to most outside of America, it will seem like a loss because the fact that it’s such a close race is insane. Harris should be wayyyyy ahead of Trump. He is a convicted felon; he should be charged with corruption with the amount of money him and his family made during his Presidency, he is a known racist and misogynist. Like the fact that he is even the candidate for the Republicans is shocking. I don’t know how Americans who vote for him say they believe in freedom or democracy when he is a fascist.