The Bond Stakes grow more confusing by the day. Last we heard, the James Bond shortlist was expanding, not retracting, as more actors joined the final rounds of screen-tests. Reportedly, the current shortlist is: Jack Lowden, Callum Turner, Josh O’Connor, Robert Pattinson and Nicholas Hoult, with Pattinson and Hoult as “late entries” into the Bond Stakes. Well, about all of that, there are two new pieces. One is this Daily Mail piece saying that Josh O’Connor is out of the race. A source told the Mail that “Josh has turned down the Bond role,” and something about how Josh planned to take a break in 2027. I don’t believe Josh “turned down the role,” but I would totally believe that Josh exited out of the Bond race after a few screen tests, either by his own choice or because one of the producers let him know that he probably wasn’t a serious contender. Which brings me to this huge scoop from Puck’s Matthew Belloni, which is full of gossip about MGM-Amazon’s math and why Robert Pattinson is starting to look like the consensus favorite for Bond. Some highlights:

Pattinson is the smart choice: And now that the process has indeed neared its end—barring hiccups, we’ll get an announcement before Christmas, presumably via white smoke from the Laurel Grill outside the Amazon MGM lot—it’s worth looking at the why behind the casting, not just who might get the job. Because a strong case can be made that one choice makes the most sense for Amazon MGM and director Denis Villeneuve. Yeah, that’s Pattinson.

The test deals: Let’s start with one overlooked element here: the test deals. The potential 007s all signed contracts granting Amazon MGM their services on this film (Bond 26, in the parlance of the franchise), plus options on subsequent movies. That’s standard for franchise films of any decent size. Daniel Craig, when he tested for Bond, signed on for one film and three optional follow-ups (that contract was later renegotiated). But the test deals here were not all the same, per three sources familiar with the dealmaking. O’Connor and Lowden, for instance, were required to sign up for four Bonds, if chosen. Pattinson, on the other hand, was able to lower that commitment to three (plus a whole lot more money than the others), given his stardom. So whoever is chosen will confer upon Amazon MGM different rights to their services. That’s only a problem in success, of course, and I doubt, given the stakes here, that the filmmakers would choose their Bond based on who’s cheaper. But unlike with previous installments, it suggests the studio is willing or even eager to sacrifice a bit to get a “name” star to front its most important franchise.

Bond producers weren’t happy with their original shortlist: There’s a theory going around that Villeneuve and producers David Heyman and Amy Pascal wouldn’t have gone through the trouble of bringing in established stars like Pattinson and Hoult if they were happy with the less well-known guys. Rob and Nic definitely tested after the others, though Pattinson was always a name Villeneuve wanted to see. And Pattinson’s test deal was so difficult to close, per two sources familiar with the process, that some involved were left wondering why the filmmakers would bother if they didn’t really want him.

Barbara Broccoli liked Pattinson: In fact, Broccoli made it known to those in her orbit that she liked Pattinson for Bond around the time that No Time to Die, the final Craig pic, was gearing up to shoot. Then he was announced as Batman, and she quickly lost interest.

The new Bond needs to be a star, a name: Denis has a relationship with Pattinson, of course, having directed him in the third Dune movie. But there’s a decent, if somewhat contrarian, argument that Bond 26 kinda needs a star of his caliber. Not needs, necessarily, but would benefit greatly from a star. I know… that’s why you hire Denis, to avoid that pressure. And… it’s Bond! The character is arguably way better without some star’s career baggage. But think about it. No franchise is bulletproof anymore—everything is vulnerable and most can be helped by a value-add element, like an established star. It’s why Universal plopped Scarlett Johansson into its biggest franchise, Jurassic World, and why the town’s biggest franchise filmmaker, Nolan, stacked The Odyssey with A-listers. Bond has always been enough to sell itself. Now? Maybe it needs to be so-and-so as Bond.

The Batman issue: While it would be weird and potentially cannibalistic for Batman and James Bond to be the same guy, the currently shooting The Batman: Part II may be Pattinson’s last turn in the cape and cowl. Even before director Matt Reeves was temporarily replaced by Steven Soderbergh due to a personal issue, Reeves had fallen far behind on the project, which eventually pushed the release date to February 2028. It’s hard to believe that Skydance, and its new DC president, Jeremy Latcham, will go down that path again. Indulging a lengthy timeline on the company’s number one franchise is probably not an option for the debt-laden Skydance. And without Reeves, Pattinson is unlikely to continue in the role, I’d guess.

[From Puck News]

I think Belloni’s making some interesting arguments, and Pattinson is absolutely the biggest “star” of the shortlist, and maybe that’s significant. The biggest argument I’ve seen that Pattinson is the leading contender is that Denis Villeneuve is a huge Pattinson fan and they just worked together in Dune 3. They have an existing relationship, which means Pattinson is likely up for whatever Denis wants from him. Which brings me to another rumor percolating through the Bond Stakes: that Denis was always interested in Pattinson, but as a Bond villain, and Pattinson was involved in the screen tests to “face off” against potential Bonds. Which… if you’ve followed Pattinson’s career, makes a lot of sense. Still, Belloni’s tea is piping hot about the potential contracts and the Amazon rumor mill about “needing a star.”

PS… Pattinson’s trajectory is insane, right? From Sparkle Vamp to art-house to Batman to Bond??

Photos courtesy of Avalon Red, Backgrid, Cover Images.