‘Black Panther’ is already on track for $165 million debut on opening weekend

Annual Critics Choice Movie Awards

Black Panther is out NOW! I’m sure some of you went to see late last night, and many more of you will see it today or this weekend. I probably won’t see it on opening weekend, just because I didn’t get my sh-t together in time to pre-order tickets. Black Panther is already HUGE. The film cleared $25 million JUST ON THURSDAY NIGHT PREVIEWS. It’s already made $23+ million overseas. Which is crazy. But how huge will it be at the box office throughout the opening weekend?

Disney and Marvel Studios’ Black Panther is set to make history at the Presidents Day box office. If tracking is correct, the critically acclaimed superhero film will take in $165 million-plus over the long four-day weekend in North America, the top showing ever for both the holiday frame and the month of February. Black Panther will snatch the record from another superhero film, Deadpool, which took in $152.2 million over Presidents Day weekend in 2016.

A $165 million-plus opening would also be one of the top five or six domestic openings ever for a superhero film, not accounting for inflation. Some box-office observers actually believe $165 million is too low an estimate.

When Black Panther, which cost $200 million to produce before marketing, first came on tracking two weeks ago, Hollywood’s leading tracking service NRG forecast a domestic opening of $125 million. By last week, that number had shot up to $150 million-plus. On Tuesday, it was revised upwards to $165 million-plus.

[From The Hollywood Reporter]

From what I’ve been reading, I tend to think $165 million might be too low as well. We’ll see on Monday-Tuesday. Marvel/Disney has also done a good job of pushing this overseas and properly promoting it as a one-of-a-kind superhero movie, and Vanity Fair says that Marvel is quietly preparing for Black Panther to be a worldwide phenomenon.

Also, #WakandaForever is trending alongside #BlackPanther right now. It’s lit.

Annual Critics Choice Movie Awards

Annual Critics Choice Movie Awards

Photos courtesy of Marvel.

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79 Responses to “‘Black Panther’ is already on track for $165 million debut on opening weekend”

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  1. grabbyhands says:

    YAAAAAAASSSSSS.

    Bought my tickets the second they went on sale for tonight’s show and I am stoked. I’m pretty sure that I will be seeing it way more than once.

  2. Nicole says:

    I saw the movie last night and it was amazing. Honestly the movie was so important and there’s something about being in a theater full of black people watching this movie. Its hard to describe but there were a few points where the magnitude hit me and i had to hold back tears.
    Wakanda Forever. Seeing it again this weekend

    • NameChange says:

      I’m glad it’s doing well. I told my 13 year old we’d be seeing it 15 times if we had to, to make it successful. LOL. I remember doing his room when he was 5 and asking for a superhero room and there was not a single one that looked like him. This is truly historic.

      • Nicole says:

        It really is. Was talking to a friend last night about what a character like Shuri would’ve done for girls like me and it makes me happy that the next gen will have these characters.

      • lightpurple says:

        Cinema where I saw it last night had two large theaters completely sold out in advance for a 7 PM showing and when we were leaving there were lines for two 10 PM showings. I know most of today’s screenings at that theater and another one nearby are all sold out. This movie is huge.

        And Shuri pretty much stole the film for me, which was pretty hard to do considering all the heat coming off Boseman and Jordan.

      • Nicole says:

        The IMAX theater I was in was sold out and its one used for premieres here. Its a large theater. most of the theaters here had thursday and friday sold out completely. and entire groups were organizing buyouts of theaters for viewings
        The heat is right. I wanted to fan myself at some moments. Whew.
        Shuri is a national treasure

    • V4Real says:

      I saw it last night as well. Seeing it again tomorrow. But I was stoked being in a theater where 65% of the crowd was White and they were loving the hell out of a movie with a mainly Black cast. It shows that those racist trolls from FB and RT, didn’t make an impact and failed miserably.

      • Nicole says:

        always a good sign. All my friends that are white are seeing the movie tonight or saw it yesterday. so i agree

      • Alix says:

        Employees at my company get to see a fair number of movie premieres (during the work day, yay!). This is the first time EVER that they had to rent theaters in two separate locations to accommodate everyone who wanted to see a film. Not even for The Last Jedi was the turnout so huge.

      • Bread and Circuses says:

        I am a middle-aged white lady from Canada and I CANNOT FREAKIN’ WAIT TO SEE THIS MOVIE! It looks soooooo good.

        (But I must wait. Until Monday. Woe.)

    • Tobbs says:

      I got chills several times while watching this movie. It looked fantastic from the marvelous set design, great costumes and overall beautiful cinematography. And it was so f*cking delightful to see how superior the Wakandans were, and the pride they had. Not to speak of the bittersweet feeling you got when you saw Wakanda and was forced to imagine how African societies would’ve looked today if they had been allowed the same development that European nations took for themselves.

      • Nicole says:

        Yep! I want to discuss the last point more but i don’t want to spoil it. But that point and the contrast between T’Challa and Killmonger was fascinating to think about

      • Tobbs says:

        Yes, can’t wait for all the think pieces that will come after the spoiler grace period is over. Also can’t wait for all the conversations this movie will create. It amazed me how profound they managed to get a superhero movie to be, all though the movie was always going to be important just by being made.

      • MI6 says:

        @Tobbs: ALL of this.
        Plus LUPITA. And Chadwick. And Michael B. 😍
        And Angela.
        AND STRONG FEMALE CHARACTERS WITH AGENCY.

    • Lindy79 says:

      We saw it last night and I loved it!! Honestly, it was excellent. Not only a hugely talented cast of people of colour but the focus on strong women of colour, my god they were glorious!

      A black family took photos of themselves at the bottom of the stairs when it was over. It made me really emotional, how important it was to them and how proud they were.

    • H says:

      As the biggest comic book nerd on the planet, I go see every superhero movie on opening night. But as a teacher, I cried last night seeing a lot my students so excited to see a black superhero portrayed on the screen who looked like them.

      The movie deserves all the hype. It was brilliantly acted, directed, written and in my estimation breaks the mold of typical “superhero” films. Ryan Coogler should get all the awards and DC Comics and Zack Synder are now upset because now they see how a superhero movie can and should be done.

    • magnoliarose says:

      Loved every single moment of this movie. It is gorgeous. The costuming was out of this world. The acting. The story. Seriously takes superhero movies to another level. It should be seen on the big screen. I can’t gush enough. And my bae Michael had some competition with Chadwick. Sexy and smoking hot. Lupita was made for this role. The inspired casting deserves recognition as do the behind the scenes people who helped put it together.

      So let me see here. Wonder Woman a hit and Black Panther now on its way. Hmmm, tell me again how no one wants to see women and minorities carry films?

      I am going again with my younger relatives on Sunday.

  3. Tiffany says:

    Saw it last night. So damn good. I wanted to see it again this weekend but it ain’t happening.

    And yes, I think 165 is low. It would not surprise me if the figure is 195-200.

  4. Millenial says:

    Planning to see it next week. I detest packed movie theaters so I’m going to wait — but I’m really excited!

    • Loopy says:

      Hey Millenial…
      I hate packed houses too but sincerely if you can go this weekend do it,we don’t want any excuses from hollywood executives plus I am sure it’s one of those movies were the atmosphere will be electrifying.

      • magnoliarose says:

        Agreed. I want them to eat their nonsense once and for all. We just want good material. And we want some diversity.
        Some of us grew up in diverse environments and kind of like to see it onscreen. I don’t need a pretend white only world, and I don’t want one.

    • Valiantly Varnished says:

      I usually hate packed theaters too but for certain films the energy of a packed house plays a huge role. This is one of those films!

  5. T.Fanty says:

    Firstly, I am here for this. I’m reading for this film to blow away records.

    Secondly, though. I saw an article the other day that pointed out that Blade was actually the first black comic book super hero, and I remembered that I loved Blade. How come he is being ignored?

    (ETA because I want to ask if every Black Panther post can come with at least seven more photos of Chadwick Boseman.)

    • Ankhel says:

      Blade was awesome. Also, HOT.

      I have no idea what this movie is about. The trailer I’ve seen made no sense. I’ll give it a shot though, since I normally like super hero movies.

      • Lama Bean says:

        I didn’t know what it was about either. You catch on. It is really a majestic movie. Ryan Coogler is crazy talented.

    • V4Real says:

      Really, I thought Spawn featuring Michael Jai White was the first Black comic book superhero . It came out in 1997, while Bade came out in 1998.

    • Veronica says:

      I wouldn’t want to play down the importance of films like Blade, but I wouldn’t quite compare it to the mainstream success of the Marvel franchise. These are expected to make in one weekend what the Blade films did in nearly one run. The fact that Black Panther makes a considerably charged statement about violent American imperialism in an era as racially charged as our own is a big deal.

      (I think an important difference is also the audience – the Blade films are more violent, less accessible to children. Like Spawn, he has more anti-hero type qualities than traditionally heroic ones. For a lot of kids, Black Panther will be the very first superhero in the mainstream they can emulate at a young age sans caveats about appropriate content.)

      • Pam_L says:

        Blade is a Marvel character/comic book hero. I think the difference is the world wasn’t truly ready for a Black comic book hero when the Blade film was made and if the cast of Blade had been nearly all Black, it wouldn’t have had the impact it did at the time. Seeing the Black super hero characters in Iron Man, Captain America, and (yes, even this dud) The Justice League, has in my opinion made the potential success of the Black Panther film possible. But all props to Wesley Snipes who was and is The SH$T as Blade.

      • Nic2k says:

        @ Pam_L um what? The Blade movies did really well and there was enough interest to make THREE movies. Clearly, the world was fine with a black superhero then.

    • grabbyhands says:

      Having been guilty of forgetting both Blade and Spawn, I think it is mostly because at the time those movies came out, we weren’t in the same super hero golden age that we are in now and the studios weren’t throwing the kind of press and support behind them that they are now.

    • Lindy79 says:

      I’d say it’s because the Blade movies (and Spawn) weren’t considered mainstream, superhero movies weren’t anyway and also their rating was 15/18 here in UK and Ireland.
      I know Deadpool is 18 but it’s success was riding the waves of the current phase of PG13 ones

    • INeedANap says:

      It’s also that this is one of the few mainstream films with a majority Black cast, and they’re not being depicted as slaves or thugs. It’s a film chockablock with Black excellence and success, and I cannot think of another film that does so.

    • Nic2k says:

      Oh my god, thank you!!!!! Blade is a black Marvel character who carried not one, but three films! I’ll let Honest Trailers say everything for me
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cI5RYgvPHLU

  6. Loopy says:

    Yeey going to see it tonight with a group of my friends wearing our best African gear.

  7. ThenThereIsThat says:

    This will be huge. I am hoping so huge that all other future superhero movies bomb and they all go away.

    Can you tell I am burned out on superhero movies? 😉

  8. Rapunzel says:

    So excited to see this today. Between this and Black Lightining on the CW, I’m surrounded by black excellence.

  9. Mia4s says:

    $165 for the four day is a great number…but to be clear $150 for the four day would also be fantastic….as would $140. Putting that out there because I will scream if anyone writes a “what went wrong” piece on Tuesday.

    Weird aside but the obsession with box office has made me realize my city is oversaturated with movie theatres. Hearing all this “every showing is sold out tonight”? I can remember exactly two sell outs in the past 8 years or so; the very first showing of Force Awakens and the very first showing of Rogue One. That’s it. Last Jedi came close but not quite, as did the first showing of Civil War. Black Panther is doing great here but has tickets available all weekend, good ones. Nothing sells out here!

    • Ann says:

      It may depend on where you are. Theaters that put in recliners lost a bunch of seats, so it’s easier for movies to sell out in those markets because there’s less space. That’s also why presales have been increasing in general, since that brings reserved seating.

      • H says:

        The theater I was in last night for the 3-D showing had seats available in the front where no one wants to sit. But all other reclining seats were gone for the 7pm show. I just bought three seats in the last row for Saturday (reclining) but that was all that was available for that afternoon. I think word of mouth is going to blow this up over the weekend.

    • Shelly says:

      its at 218$ domestic so far! yay!!

  10. MI6 says:

    LOVED. IT.
    One of the best, if not THE best, Marvel film I have ever seen. And that’s saying something.
    It’ll blow the doors off $165M this weekend. No doubt.

  11. Carrie says:

    I would expect more, since he’s a character who was introduced before the solo movie. I am guessing, though, that it will have a larger than normal drop 2nd weekend (the more hype, bigger the drop has been a pattern) and China is still unclear. The budget is higher than normal, so $400 million or so is the break even mark.

    • Yeahright says:

      It’s 2.5 Times the budget to break even.
      This will def turn a profit

      • Ann says:

        Technically, they get around 50% here and 35% overseas, so the real box office break even is $800 million. Marvel’s tight but in this case they probably did spend around 2.5x on m&p.

      • Tiffany says:

        Don’t forget tie insurance (Lexus) and merchandise.

  12. Veronica says:

    I probably won’t be able to see it for a few weeks, but I’ve heard really good things about from people who have. The soundtrack is also really good.

    I have nothing else to add other than the fact that Marvel makes some remarkably good-looking casts.

  13. lightpurple says:

    Where’s Esmon & other All My Children fans? #ReggiePorterMontgomeryForever. And that goes for both versions of Reggie, even though I don’t remember any of Chadwick’s storyline other than they needed to age Reggie up for some reason, as soap operas do.

    • pwal says:

      @LightPurple… funny story, every once in a while, I go on You Tube to watch old soap clips, mainly Santa Barbara, but sometimes others. I got hung up watching classic soaps opening credits and when I saw MBJ rocking the braids, I couldn’t believed I forgot he was on AMC. AMC wasn’t a favorite, but I tuned in when Bianca came out, when she was raped and when Babe passed off Miranda as her own. MBJ was on during those storylines and yet, didn’t remember why he looked familiar.

      • Lightpurple says:

        I loved him MBJ as Reggie. I don’t remember much of Chadwick as Reggie; I think he played him after Reggie finished college or something and then only briefly. I do remember that even after Reggie was no longer a regular, supposedly off to school, MBJ would occasionally return as Reggie for stuff like Christmas or Jack & Erica’s 15th remarriage or whatever until finally replaced him with Chadwick. And Amanda Seyfried played teenage Reggie’s ultra religious girlfriend.

    • Jerusha says:

      Here, but feeling a bit like a dirty old lady since I’ve been watching MBJ since he was 14. Took my grandson to see it this afternoon and loved it! In addition to CB and MBJ and Lupita, it was wonderful to see Daniel K., Angela B., Sterling K. B., and Forest W. And Letitia Wright was fantastic, reminded me of a slightly younger Naomie Harris. And not a shrinking violet among the women!!

      • magnoliarose says:

        Hi Jerusha. Missed seeing you around. 😘

        Seeing strong women is refreshing. I liked seeing the older actors here. Angela B is so underused it is criminal.

  14. pwal says:

    Saw it last night. LOVED IT!!!!! Fantastic characters and their relationships. So much gorgeousness to behold. Even the end credits. Will see it again. Saw it in 2D and it was amazing, but I need to see this in 3D or Imax, if possible.

  15. Becks says:

    I am DYING to see this and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a Marvel/superhero movie in the theater. I am trying to see if we can find a babysitter so we can go. It looks amazing.

  16. Tania says:

    I celebrate Valentine’s Day on February 15 as that’s the day my Dad always bought us candy and flowers after he retired.

    So for Valentine’s last night, my husband and I went to see Black Panther. It wasn’t completely sold out – it was playing in about 4 – 6 theaters – but the parking lot was crazy packed and the theater was probably around 90% full for a Thursday.

    The movie was fun, it had strong smart female characters with a strong moral compass and unbridled loyalty! I don’t want to reveal spoilers but much like my Nation, the men may be the “leaders” but the women behind the scenes are the power structure.

    I enjoyed the movie. I was prepared for it to be a disappointment given the hype because most movies that are touted tend to be overrated. The audience was very diverse too! Don’t forget to stay for the 2 end credit scenes!

    My favorite tweet was something along the lines of Gollum and Bilbo Baggins from the LOTR trilogy are the Tolkien white guys for the movie.

    I’ll definitely see the movie again to catch scenes I missed the first time (I spend so much time watching characters I miss some of the innuendo and clues in the background).

  17. Lucy says:

    Saw it last night. The costumes! The sets! The action scenes! The Dora Army! Nakia, Okoye and SHURI!!! Just a little advice: Stay for the 2nd post-credit scene 😉

    • Alix says:

      Dammit, I only stayed for one! I guess I’ll have to see it again…

      • Abby says:

        Yes, there are 2 post credit scenes. Same with Thor: Ragnarok
        That was the only thing i read checked in advance, how many scenes- not their content.
        I always go in green. Try to avoid trailers too.

        And LOL about having to see it again after missing a post credit scene. I’ve absolutely done that.

  18. Valiantly Varnished says:

    Saw it last night in a packed theater and it was awesome. Okoye is everything! Also loved Shuri.

  19. Jenn4037 says:

    This movie is an absolute delight. You do not need to know a single thing about the Marvel universe or past characters to watch and enjoy. Those Wakandan warriors are FIERCE and my 12 yo daughter walked out feeling empowered. This film could not be more relevant to the current climate. Run, do not walk, to see this film. Pardon me while I download the soundtrack.

  20. Abby says:

    Don’t forget to post reviews (hopefully positive) at user sites.
    I plan to see it this weekend and will add my comments.

  21. TIFFANY N HINES says:

    Saw it last night! Loved it! Normally I can’t stand crowds but made a exception for the panther soo worth it

  22. Her Higness says:

    I was lucky enough to see an early screening & my gosh it was an amazing experience, there were some iconic moments in the film in terms of imagery for black woman, but I wont do any spoilers LOL.

  23. Beckymae says:

    Saw this last night in Sydney and loved it! I reckon half the African and African American population of Sydney was there too and they were LIT! It was so great being in the cinema with so many people really getting into it. I was quite emotional… I wasn’t prepared for all the #girlpower feels either.

  24. StillTotalled says:

    #WAKANDAFOREVER!

  25. ol cranky says:

    the movie opened with Sterling K Brown (who I didn’t know was in it) and went uphill from there

    I was shocked the 3D showing I went to last night was only half full but I’m guessing that’s because it’s playing on a lot of screens around here

  26. Justwastingtime says:

    Seeing it this afternoon with the film geek husband and my nine-year old daughter… can’t wait!!

  27. Snowflake says:

    Going to see it tonight with the husband! So excited!

  28. phaedra7 says:

    BEST. / EXCELLENT. MOVIE. EVER!!!!!! #BlackPanther and #WakandaForever

  29. Shelly says:

    218 Domestic so far!