2019 Oscar nomination predictions: who will get snubbed?


The 2019 Oscar nominations will be released on Tuesday, January 22nd. We’ll have full coverage of the nominations that morning, of course. It feels like everything is hella early this year, and it’s going to stay that way for a while – did you know the Academy is still hellbent on moving the Oscars up next year? They’re still scheduled for February 9th in 2020. It’s going to be absolute shambles. Anyway, I’ve been doing this for a few years, and let’s see how it works out this year: predictions for only the Oscar nominations. Not who will win, just who will get nominated in the biggest categories. My choices, with some explanations:

A Star Is Born
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns

I think Crazy Rich Asians will get shut out of the Best Picture race and the nominations will “overcorrect” by nominated several films with primarily black casts: Beale Street, BlacKkKlansman, and Black Panther. Now, I don’t believe those films will win. But that’s another discussion. I also think Green Book will unfortunately get nominated for Best Picture, because the Academy (wrongly) believes that the film says something important about race (it does not). I honestly think Vice and Roma are the favorites here. Mary Poppins Returns will get nominated somehow because of Disney/ABC, which is where the Oscars will air.

Adam McKay, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

I think Barry Jenkins, Ryan Coogler and Peter Farrelly will all be shut out, along with ALL WOMEN. I know the Farrelly thing is a reach, I just don’t want to admit that he’ll likely get a nomination.

Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

I could totally see Aparicio get a surprise nomination after being mostly shut out of the acting awards (the film and the director are getting the most attention). Obviously, Emily Blunt has a decent shot at getting a nomination, and I would also put Rosamund Pike’s performance in A Private War as a potential “out of nowhere” nomination that could happen.

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Some people believe Viggo could get shut out, which he should, but you have to remember that the Academy voters are idiots. So I think Viggo would get nominated ahead of someone like Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) or Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate).

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

I think they’ll nominate Sam Rockwell (who is actually the reigning Oscar winner in this category) over Sam Elliott in a A Star Is Born. Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe Richard Grant will get shut out and both Sams will get in. I think Timothee and Mahershala are sure things though.

Amy Adams, Vice
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Weisz, Stone and King are the sure-thing nominations, but I could see the other two places going to literally ANYONE. Maybe Amy, maybe Margot, maybe Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place, maybe someone else who hasn’t been nominated for anything.


The 87th Annual Oscars - Red Carpet Arrivals


Promotional photos from IMDB.

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34 Responses to “2019 Oscar nomination predictions: who will get snubbed?”

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  1. Jenns says:

    Even though I don’t think it will happen, I would love to see Hugh Grant get a nomination for Paddington 2. I would also like to see P2 nominated for best picture.

  2. Rescue Cat says:

    Roma is a lock to take out the Best Foreign Language Film and Into the Spider Verse will take out the Best Animated Film prize, which will be a nice way to honour Stan Lee.

    The Best Picture race is wide open. A Star is Born, Roma, The Favourite and Bohemian Rhapsody are all strong chances.

    • Steff says:

      Bohemian Rhapsody was trash. I can’t believe people are championing this movie. Rami Malik carried it, he deserves a nom, that is all it should get.

      • minx says:

        I wouldn’t call it trash, just somewhat pedestrian. But people loved it and worse pictures have gotten nominations, particularly since the field went to 10.

      • paranormalgirl says:

        It’s not trash. It just wasn’t award-worthy as best picture. The cast did a fantastic job with a less than fantastic script.

      • jan90067 says:

        Loved Rami as Freddy. I liked the movie a lot, but don’t think it’s Best Pic material. Conversely, I don’t understand why everyone is losing their shizz over Roma. Beautiful visuals for sure; it was a good (but verrrrrry slow) film. Heck, I had to FF through the opening credits! They took so long I thought I actually had hit the wrong button on the remote and I was at the end of the disc!

        I really liked “The Favourite”. It was deliciously written, very sharp and witty.

        I have to say though, one of my favorites, which NO ONE mentions is “The Hate U Give”. I thought that film was so powerful, and so well acted. The lead, Amandla Stenberg, was superb.

        And I’m very sad about “Crazy Rich Asians”. For pure enjoyment, that was the best!

    • PauKay says:

      Roma was a incredible but have you seen Cold War? If not, you should. And it’s a strong contender in my opinion 🙂

  3. Tiffany says:

    Agree about Coogler and Jenkins, which is a damn shame.

    They are also gonna be fighting for writing nominations as well and I think Coogler and Hill will be the ones that are snubbed.

  4. R says:

    Ok I loved Crazy Rich Asians but in no way was that an Oscar caliber film. It was a fantastic movie but to think it should be in there with If Beale Street Could Talk is like saying You’ve Got Mail (a personal fave) should be in compared to Philadelphia. I mean seriously.

    And I don’t think it is over correcting for not including a rom com to have all three of the primarily black casted films nominated- those films were all fabulous.

    I think you are right about Coogler which is a shame he made a fantastic film it was just next level and I say this as someone who would rather have their hair ripped out then watch a superhero movie. I HATE COMIC BOOK MOVIES. But I loved Black Panther. So he should be nominated but you’re probably right he sadly won’t. Although I am still bitter he wasn’t nominated for Fruitvale Station and will carry that bitterness forever.

    I think Barry Jenkins could get nominated before Bradley Cooper- Star Is Born isn’t doing as well as people predicted.


    • Jadedone says:

      Fruitvale was robbed. And yes Regina needs to win, my future egot queen

      • R says:

        OMG I want this for her so bad. She is so insanely talented and has been ignored for so long that now I am like give her all the awards all of them.

        Does she have a grammy?

        Still so mad about Fruitvale, so mad.

      • paranormalgirl says:

        Agree that Fruitvale was robbed on a million different levels.

  5. Jewell says:

    The critics loved Sam Elliot’s performance, and the critics and professional’s guild are a better indicator of eventual academy nominations.

  6. Case says:

    Roma should get nominated for direction, not acting. It was an interesting, well-executed, immersive film, but I found the acting to just be meh.

    The Best Picture race seems so wide this year, with no obvious frontrunner.

  7. Coccinellidae says:

    I just hope Viola Davis gets nominated for Widows.

    • eto says:

      This! I haven’t seen ALL of the films in the running for a nom, but most of them. Widows is definitely one of my faves and I’m still so sad that it didn’t make a bigger impact.

      • Beatrix says:

        She was AMAZING in this movie, which overall didn’t quite get the attention it deserved.

      • lucy2 says:

        Me too, it was great on many levels. I’m disappointed it didn’t do so well at the box office, but it really didn’t get much promotion. Everyone in the cast was fantastic.

      • jan90067 says:

        Really? I turned it off after 15 min. While I LOVE Viola, I just couldn’t get into this one. Can you tell me what was so good about it? Seriously….not meaning it sarcastically. Perhaps I should give it another chance?

  8. minx says:

    I would go along with all of these picks. For some reason I don’t think there are going to be any big shockers.

  9. Becks1 says:

    I have no real comments (since I’m always a year behind on watching movies), but I’m laughing so hard at “you have to remember that the Academy voters are idiots” LOL.

  10. Other Renee says:

    Why are they moving the Oscars to February?

  11. Jensies says:

    I wish Sorry to Bother You would get nominated for all of the things, but I would be happy to see it nominated for anything. Sigh.

    • Lyka says:

      Alas, I figure the film’s too blatantly anti-capitalist and bizarre. I think Boots Riley will have the career of a John Carpenter – making incredible, progressive, strange films that weird out (or even bore) wider audiences. I remember the hype for the movie when critics thought it would be mostly about code-switching and the black millennial experience; when it instead used those concepts to also make vivid points about body autonomy and labor movements and exploitation it seemed a lot of people didn’t quite know how to class/read it.

      I loved it too, but I’m honestly okay with it not getting mainstream props. It’s not a mainstream concept at all.

  12. Melanie says:

    Wouldn’t Emily Blunt be considered the lead for ‘A Quiet Place’, not supporting? And, I think this is the first time I’ve read a comment about ‘Roma’ and ‘Vice’ being the favorites in the Best Picture category. Most people seem to think it will come down to ‘Roma’ and ‘A Star Is Born’. It’s still very hard for me to believe that the Academy would even consider voting for the 3rd remake of a movie over something that is more original. They never felt compelled to award the other versions with a Best Picture Oscar, so is Bradley’s version really better than the other versions?

    • Bob says:

      Yeah VICE is sitting at 64% on RottenTomatoes, it’s hovering just above splat. The only thing it will win is for Bale

  13. Ang says:

    I think saorise over Margot Robbbie any day for Mary, Queen of Scots. She was way better

  14. Adam says:

    What about Sandra Bullock Bird Box?

  15. Bella Bella says:

    I’ll tell you what will get shut out. Leave No Trace should be getting a Best Director nod for Debra Granik (she did Down to the Bone) and Best Actor for Ben Foster. And even Best Cinematography. I just saw this movie a couple of days ago — it’s streaming now — and it is so good. Once again Granik gets a knockout performance out of an unknown young woman actress. There’s minimal dialogue and it is what some would call a quiet movie, but there is so much bubbling under the surface of this film… I highly recommend it. Ben Foster, who I normally don’t pay much attention to, is phenomenal. Woman director!!!!

  16. manta says:

    I’d like an out of nowhere nom for Amandla Sternberg, rather than for Blunt or Pike.
    And generally a little recognition for anyone involved in The hate U give.

    I hope First Reformed wil get some love. Schrader wrote an amazing script and nothing in this world can convince me that Cooper did something superior to Ethan Hawke in the acting department.