Even though the ratings were down for the Republican National Convention and even though the RNC was largely a criminal enterprise in blatant violation of the Hatch Act, I still expected Donald Trump to get a “bump” in the polls. It happens every four years, regardless of how dystopian and death-culty the Republican Party is these days. Democrats get a polling bump from their convention, and Republicans get a polling bump from their convention. Plus, most swing voters “decide” who they’re voting for in September anyway, so we’re already going to see some frustrating and infuriating polling coming out over the next few weeks. Enter Michael Moore, who is still here to scare the bejesus out of everyone:
The documentary film-maker Michael Moore has warned that Donald Trump appears to have such momentum in some battleground states that liberals risk a repeat of 2016 when so many wrote off Trump only to see him grab the White House.
“Sorry to have to provide the reality check again,” he said. Moore, who was one of few political observers to predict Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, said that “enthusiasm for Trump is off the charts” in key areas compared with the Democratic party nominee, Joe Biden.
“Are you ready for a Trump victory? Are you mentally prepared to be outsmarted by Trump again? Do you find comfort in your certainty that there is no way Trump can win? Are you content with the trust you’ve placed in the DNC [Democratic National Committee] to pull this off?” Moore posted on Facebook late on Friday. Moore identified opinion polling in battleground states such as Minnesota and Michigan to make a case that the sitting president is running alongside or ahead of his rival.
“The Biden campaign just announced he’ll be visiting a number of states – but not Michigan. Sound familiar?” Moore wrote, presumably indicating Hillary Clinton’s 2016 race when she made the error of avoiding some states that then swung to Trump.
“I’m warning you almost 10 weeks in advance. The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump’s base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much,” he later added. He continued to voters: “Don’t leave it to the Democrats to get rid of Trump. YOU have to get rid of Trump. WE have to wake up every day for the next 67 days and make sure each of us are going to get a hundred people out to vote. ACT NOW!”
Moore cited CNN polling of registered voters this month to assert that “Biden and Trump were in a virtual tie”, including a poll that showed the pair tied at 47% in Minnesota. Moore said that Trump “has closed the gap to 4 points” in Michigan.
Moore is a Bernie Sanders guy and he doesn’t care for Joe Biden, nor did he care for Hillary Clinton. It reminds me of some analysis I saw in the months following the 2016 election, which was that male commentators were obsessed with the “enthusiasm gap” between Clinton voters and Trump voters, but they never took into account the fact that those same male political commentators often shouted down or dismissed the millions of (female) voters who were genuinely enthusiastic to vote for Hillary Clinton. I feel like the same thing is happening here – the talking point will be the “Trump voters are very loud, mega-salty and violently butthurt and they’re all going to storm the polls.” Meanwhile, millions of voters are quietly thrilled to vote for the Biden-Harris ticket, we’re just not arming ourselves with AK-47s and shrieking about it on Facebook.
That being said, I don’t completely hate the fact that Michael Moore and others are raising the alarm. It IS true. DONALD TRUMP COULD TOTALLY BE RE-ELECTED. I know all of us have ulcers and migraines and our stress levels are through the f–king roof, but it has to be said and there’s still time to work to get the Biden-Harris ticket elected and GOTV.
Photos courtesy of Getty.