I’ve been getting nervous about the election over the past week. It’s not that I don’t believe the polls, it’s just that I’m still traumatized from 2016. I believed the polls then too, and the polls had Hillary Clinton with a significant edge over Donald Trump. Although… James Comey did his thing just weeks before Election Day and there really wasn’t polling to accurately reflect that. I’m worried about another October Surprise, I’ll admit it. I’m worried that Joe Biden’s numbers look amazing right now and that maybe it would have been better for Trump’s coronavirus to come right now and not nine days ago. Anyway, as for polling…
Former Vice President Joe Biden is dominating President Donald Trump in the latest polls. No, the election is not over yet, and Trump still has a non-negligible chance of winning. But a look through history reveals that Biden is in a better position at this point than any challenger since 1936, when the first scientific polls were taken in a presidential race.
The ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Sunday was the latest poll to indicate Biden’s strength. Biden led Trump by a 55% to 43% margin among likely voters. The poll was the third high quality national poll published this week that had Biden up by at least 10 points and above 50%. The other two being from CNN/SSRS and Fox News. Indeed, the average of polls has Biden at around 52% or 53% and up by somewhere between 10 and 11 points. This is an unprecedented position for a challenger with a mere 23 days to go until Election Day.
In the 21 previous presidential elections since 1936, there have only been five challengers who led at this time. Of those five, only one (Bill Clinton in 1992) was ahead by more than 5 points. None of those five were earning more than 48% of the vote in the polls. In other words, Biden is the first challenger to be above 50% at this late juncture in the campaign.
This also continues to mark a massive difference with the 2016 campaign. While Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by as high as 7 points in October 2016, she never came anywhere close to approaching 50% of the vote. Trump merely had to win the lionshare of the undecided or third party voters (who would bolt their candidate) to earn a victory in 2016.
It makes me feel better… briefly. But there’s still work to be done and every single person needs to vote and we need to stay uncomfortable and agitated for three more weeks. Besides, national polls don’t mean anything. The electoral college could absolutely f–k us over. Keep your eye on state-by-state polling and keep your eye on the Senate races, including Lindsay Graham’s race, which could be something of a bellwether for this election.
And what we absolutely should NOT do is start emphasizing what kinds of cabinet appointments Joe Biden would make. STOP IT. I don’t want to hear, right now, that Andrew Cuomo and Sally Yates are being considered for Attorney General. That is putting the cart before the horse! By all means, Biden and his people should be making plans. Quietly. Don’t tell anybody though.
Photos courtesy of WENN, Backgrid, Avalon Red.
Push!
I’m making calls on Tuesday for the campaign. Keep our foot on the gas and on Trumps neck.
YES! Make calls, send letters and V O T E!! We can do this!
I sent 100 postcards to FL and WI voters over the last 6 months promoting Vote by Mail. These states are key!
My VoteForward.org letters (all 500 of them so far!) go out on the 17th. Already voted (Blue all the way down) and dropped our ballots off at the designated ballot box.
I read something that I find very appropriate: Go to sleep believing the Polls are ahead; wake up as if the Polls are behind.
We can NOT afford to relax and take ANYTHING for granted. As Kaiser said, the EC in republiTHUG states can still screw us over! BE VIGILANTE!
Polls don’t factor cheating and voter suppression.
DO NOT FALL FOR THE MYTH THIS IS OVER. Vote early and get everyone you know to vote early.
Lord heard my prayers! I feel good, and I even got off Twitter out of total disgust with that toxic cesspool. And I’m tired of being told every day “DON”T BELIEVE THE POLLS, WORK LIKE WE’RE TEN POINTS DOWN” Nah, we’re ahead, and I always vote, and I have already maxed out to Biden/Harris, and done texting sessions. It’s okay to NOT live in fear, and to get a little excited. Sure, there’s nothing guaranteed, but let’s calm down a little and enjoy. Dont’ forget there is also a bandwagon effect that takes hold, so it’s okay to brag about being ahead!
We were ahead last time, and look what happened.
We were ahead in 2016 and we were so sure Hillary had the win. Well..
Polls don’t mean zip. They survey people use landlines (like who uses that archaic tech anymore, right) and it’s always a small survey sample and not reflective of the population.
I tell everyone to vote like Biden is 60% behind Trump in the polls. Vote like your life depends on it (because it does). Trump has cost people their lives and he’s tanked the economy. This didn’t have to happen. I was supposed to attend grad school this year and couldn’t (many schools have cancelled a lot of their grad programs because of the virus and I blame Trump for that). Preparing for grad school was a year in the making for me (applications, GRE, rec letters, $ etc). So my career has been set back at least two years. I am lucky to have a job where I can work from home but like everyone else, the future is on hold.
He has to go.
Keeping fingers and toes for Joe here in the UK.
I’m so ashamed of what has happened in our country (and the effect it has had on the rest of the workd). It is good to know people are rooting for us 💗
We all must vote, etc. etc. But Biden’s polling is far better than HRC’s and even Obama’s. We’ll never have an election like Reagan in 1984 or LBJ in 1964, the country is polarized, but this will be a wave election.
The demographics of the country are not moving in the GOP’s favor and they know it. Formerly dark red states like VA, AZ, NC, GA are flipping purple or blue. Even TX. Northerners move south for the weather, young people move for tech jobs. That influx changes the voting population.
@Minx
I live in Texas and the chatter is that no way the Dems can win, but some of the big names here running for re-election (republican’ts) have really had to dig down and deep because a couple of them are in big trouble.
What’s interesting to me in all of this is that NONE of the big guns (Cruz, Abbott, etc…) are running their mouths on tv this time. They are strangely quiet.
My local news channel has been holding “candidate forums” where both sides do virtual “debates” which has been very informative.
I just heard a great interview with Beto O’Rourke this weekend and he said TX is in a dead heat at this point. The disenfranchisement he talked about made my blood boil and I am so proud of all the Texans who are working around the clock to right those egregious wrongs. He said TX may not go blue but for the first time in 46 years it feels like they have a shot. Fingers crossed for TX!
Merlinsmom, neither Abbott or Cruz (or ken Paxton OR Lt Gov Dan Patrick for that matter) are up for re-election this year (dammit! ). Paxton (our AG) even won re-election when he was under indictment for securities fraud in 2018. He’s even in more trouble now with his whole staff writing a letter saying he was influence peddling. And Dan Patrick was the genius who said he was willing to die for the economy (“There are more important things than living”. )
My state is hardcore, not going to change RED. But I already have my plan to get my butt out of bed on Thursday morning and go early vote. The Democratic Senate campaign in my state texted if they can count on my vote Nov 3rd and I was all “yes! But I’m voting early so not Nov 3rd”
Then I have to get my grandparents all PPEd up so they can early vote too. My grandfather would vote for town dog walker if needed, no way is he missing this election and he likes to go in person so that’s what we shall do! (Luckily he also likes to early vote)
I will continue to be nervous until Biden and Harris are in office. Trump lost the popular vote last time and he still got in office, and he’s pretty clearly pinning his hopes on the Supreme Court this time. Everybody get out and vote so there’s no room for Trump to dispute a Biden win.
I keep my fingers crossed for all of you.
I can’t relax either. I went to bed in 2016 CERTAIN that I would wake up to a Clinton presidency. Absolutely nothing is certain. Every single vote matters. Please be a voice for change.
I went to bed positive Clinton would win in 2016 as well. I woke up in the middle of the night and checked the results. The last four years have felt like a nightmare I never woke up from.
No one take this win for granted. Everyone needs to get out there and vote, because if this isn’t a landslide, Trump will do everything in his power to steal this election.
Somany folks have already voted. Way more than at this time in 2016. And they’re mostly Dems. That’s a very good sign.
In the upcoming BC election, they expected approximately 6500 requests for mail-in ballots. So far they have received 646,000 requests.
Because of what happened in the last election, I too am taking these polling reports with a grain of salt. I sent in my ballot last week so I am part of the more than 7 million early voters. (The state of NJ sent a ballot to every registered voter this year and you can track it to make sure it was received.) I’m hoping this early voting surge means that more people will actually vote this year.
Yeah, it’s had to trust polls after 2016. Although at this exact moment in 2016 I suddenly had the sense that Trump had a good chance of winning — the momentum was really building. And I went and panic-canvassed in WI in October. I don’t have that sense now. But still, I won’t be relaxing anytime soon.
I’m in NJ too, and have been doing vote by mail for a few years now. There’s literally no excuse not to vote, so I too am hoping it encourages more people to participate. Everyone complains about stuff in my town, but the voter turn out for local stuff is PITIFUL, and the same people keep getting re-elected. I’m hoping some new candidates can ride this wave in.
I put mine in the drop box this year, and it was marked received within a day or so. I’m still waiting for the ACCEPTED status, but I don’t know if they’ve even started counting yet.
Thank God. Everyone please vote. Donate. Nag your family to vote. Vote early. And maybe once this shit stain is out of office we can fix things like voting registration dates (other countries let you register even on election day), bullshit things like banning reformed citizens from voting, and the biggest mistake of our country, the electoral college.
I can barely breathe until the elections! It is time for our National Nightmare to be over! Let the Proud Boys move his furniture out! As long as he is GONE!
Can I ask a question that has me scratching my head? I’ve tried to Google and understand but I just get confused. Each state chooses their electoral vote based on the popular vote within the state?
Honestly, I hope everything works out. I worry about that since Russia seems to be getting bolder and bolder with their tactics. The world roots for you, America. Hopefully He I Refuse to Name gets voted out.
Yeah, that’s correct. Each state’s electoral votes are based on that state’s popular vote, winner take all. It’s a dumb system. There’s a movement where several states have signed on to an agreement where they will give their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote regardless, but it only will come into effect once enough states sign on to it to win an election.
😬 How does your government function like this?
No quite true. Both Nebraska and Maine proportionally allocate their delegates based on congressional districts. Whomever wins in each district gets the electors.
But other than that, yeah it’s winner take all in the remainder of the states.
It’s antiquated, and incredibly dumb, and I wish we could do away with it, or at least reconfigure the numbers to match population. My vote is worth a fraction of what someone in Wyoming or Montana’s is.
The key is understanding that casting your vote in the popular election isn’t actually voting for the president. It’s actually voting for the ELECTOR who will be representing you in the electoral college to vote for said president. The number of electors is equivalent to the amount of house representation states have. The problem is that because the majority of states don’t split the electoral vote by proportion, it’s all or nothing for the majority of them. Compounding that issue is the deal FDR made in order to get the New Deal through in the 1930s – freezing the size of the House of Representatives at 435 instead of allowing it to continuously grow. So effectively, the most populous states have seen their numbers increase dramatically over the last several decades but their proportionate impact on the electoral college decreased in proportion to the smaller, less populated states (while less populated states have seen the reverse, of course).
Yeahhhhh Hillary was a juggernaut going in and we all know how that turned out.
If it was strictly based on popularity, as it should be, then I would be a little happier, but because of the electoral college, I don’t trust anything and I won’t till it’s over. Then it’s a question of whether dumpster leaves quietly or no and he can do ALOT of damage between election day and inaugural day and I have no doubt he will.
Gotta keep that pressure on!
Yes, I agree fully with your second point. the real trouble is gonna go down in the lame duck term, not just Trump but also McConnell. My own opinion is that McConnell knows President Biden is coming and that’s why he xnayed any further covid relief. Sure, trump is gonna burn it down and salt the ground because that’s who he is, an incredibly and dangerously vengeful person, but McConnell is gonna help. McConnell wants to cripple the incoming Biden administration before it even begins. God I hate that man.
HRC wasn’t a juggernaut last time, she and Trump actually swapped leads here and there towards the end. Biden has been consistently ahead in all polling since the very beginning.
If Trump loses I genuinely think he will be removed from office before the end of his term. His “burn it all” mentality will finally push things too far.
Or he will quit in a fit of pique.
Let’s not get complacent. Vote, vote, vote.
This.
Polls mean nothing. Obama was projected to loose to Hillary in the ’08 primary, then loose to McCain in the general. Hillary was projected to win in ’16 and Trump was supposed to be ousted before the GOP primary by Jeb, Rubio, Cruz, etc.
Polls. Mean. Nothing. With the damage a lame duck McConnell and Trump could do I won’t breath a sigh of relief until January when Chettolini gets walked out in cuffs. I know the last 4 (really 5 or 6) years have been dark but we can’t afford to take our feet off the gas peddle yet. Those monsters haven’t won by celebrating prematurely. We can’t beat them unless we can match that energy until the very end.
I have (and i know we all have) a LOT of anxiety. I keep telling myself i’ll feel better after i early vote, which opens on either the 16th or 20th in Louisiana. I’ve seen both dates listed, which does not make me feel better.
Of course, due to the electoral college, my adult life in Louisiana has been spent casting votes that never count, as my state goes red, and therefore all the delegates vote GOP.
People are ANGRY. And we have the Coronavirus to thank for Trump GOP voters finally waking up to how dangerous the Nazi White Supremacist in the WH is. Now that is effecting white, old men who like to golf, the vote is swinging.
I don’t trust it, the least because I’m bracing myself for this administration to pull something. I submitted to work the polls in November for the first time in my life since my company has all travel grounded, and I have PTO available. I feel like we’re in for a ride, but at least I can do my part.
Dude, in certain states in certain districts, the polling locations are gonna be CRAZY!! I can easily see both Trumpers trying to intimidate voters and anti-Trumpers rolling in to knock them back.
It’s going to be particularly ugly in swing states.
Yep, and I’m in one of those swing states, which is why I’m doing it. I’m younger and less at risk for serious impact from COVID is a big part of it, but I’m also decently aware (to the extent of most layman) on what’s legal at the polls. The legislature here has been attempting moves, but the courts, while leaning conservative, have been pretty decent about upholding PA law regarding poll watching and voting rights. (They shot down a voter ID law in 2014 and then barred Trump supporters from poll watching at satellite sites a month ago.)
I have a lot of hope. But I’ll remain cautiously optimistic until we have something to really celebrate. I hope and pray, and I don’t even pray, that Joe will get it. I think we can do this.
This is what is sending Patient Zero off the cliff edge – his ‘ratings’ against Biden are tanking on a daily basis. We all know he views life, not just the Presidency, through the lens of a camera – he truly thinks he’s the star of a reality show called ‘The Orange House’ or ‘The McChicken Wing’.
Even BoJo and his cohorts at No.10 have written Dump off – it was in the news here over the weekend that they are looking at ways of building a relationship with Biden. I hope he gets a State Visit!!
We know thanks to 2016 that polling means nothing. VOTE!
I don’t care what the polling says, I’m scarred from last time. We still need people to donate their money and/or time. If you don’t live in a swing state, adopt one and phone bank. I’m from Massachusetts but have adopted Pennsylvania on account of having family in Pittsburgh, and have a shift to make phone calls there tomorrow.
votesaveamerica.com/adopt
Ditto on the scarred. I’m never trusting Nate Silver’s or any other poll site again. When I went to bed, 538 said she was winning. What an ugly way to wake up.
I voted by absentee (mail in!!) ballot already—and i hope reality smacks that ugly orange make up off his face.
Important to note: microsoft broke up a hacking plan with capacity to interfere with the election. Were not safe. Nothing is.
I sent in my mail in ballot this week! Riden with Biden (but mainly here for Kamala)!
ETA: I generally like Biden. He was an excellent VP to Obama. I just personally wished for someone younger and a little more progressive. But ‘murica isn’t ready for that yet. If your independents and moderate Republicans find him less threatening and easier to vote for than so be it.
One one hand YEAAAA!!!!! On the other…remembers 2016 (huffs into paper bag).
Hate the these headlines and truly hope no one stays home/protest vote/third party candidate because of them.
Biden & Harris need everyone’s vote, because guaranteed, there are going to be shenanigans in Republican controlled areas. Whether that’s votes being tossed out because of “signatures” or whatever, they will use every available method to try and circumvent a Biden win.
We are living through a literal plague with fires and flooding – with no one to lead the country forward. Remember when we didn’t all get Ebola? Or the Swine Flu? I do. Thanks Obama (and Joe Biden)
Damn that first sentence was funny. I laughed hard. Thank you for that, @Gemgirlaaa.
I’m in SC and Graham and Harrison are tied. I already voted by mail.’I don’t trust the mail and hand delivered my mail in ballot. I am not going to pay attention to polls because anything can happen. I agree with remaining uncomfortable until the election is over.
SC has such a good and clear choice of candidate with Jaime Harrison but y’all have squandered it before (McMaster, ew). I am so hoping for Jaime to win. I keep donating.
None of this means anything until we get to November 3rd. Unfortunately, I had the displeasure of telling all of my friends that Hillary was not going to win. My intuition this time tells me that it might be the same case for Biden. Nothing seems to stick to 45, not even Corona.
In Maine we have rank choice and our 2 electoral votes are are split between a very small, but highly populated section to the rest of the whole damn state. We always split purple, but often our majority votes D. The EC is BS.
I voted Biden via mail in ballot and it was counted. F Trump and Collins.
I trust that guy who has predicted every presidential win for decades based on certain key issues (even Trump’s win). He said it looks like Biden this time, but his analysis cannot account for election interference. I’m holding on to that and how many Republicans and independents I know who were soft on trump or even voted for him in 2016 who are now adamantly anti trump. So I have some hope.
All that being said, I voted absentee, turned in my ballot to the registrar already and have been doing a GOTV writing campaign. I signed up as an election officer earlier this year to work a primary (I haven’t been contacted yet for this upcoming election). When I was dropping off my ballot I noticed a lot of people voting early in person or dropping off their ballots in the middle of a week day so that bodes well. Taking no chances, I don’t want to just beat the McConnell-Trump Republicans destroying democracy, I want to obliterate them at the polls.
Your Canadian neighbors are sending so much love and hope to you all. It has been atrocious to witness what you all have gone through during this presidency. I cannot imagine what it is like to be in the eye of the storm. This too shall pass. I pray it shall.
Thank you 💗
Surely if Biden/Harris came up with an incredible line-up for their cabinet that would give more of a concrete base to say ‘this is what we’re about, look at this incredible team we’ve built and how we’ll hit the ground running to fix the country from day 1’? Maybe it would help shore up support from people who are on the fence about Biden personally.
Honestly here in the UK we’ve got people with ZERO experience and complete inability in so many essential positions right now, it may have changed people’s perception of how well BJ could actually lead the country by if he would put the right people in the right positions. But I don’t think half the people in our government know what they’re doing tbh.
Biden will only win all of our liberal hearts if he puts together an incredible team. I personally think the sooner the better in order to instill faith in the American public. JMO. And yeah I would LOVE Sally Yates in a top position.
I’m cautiously optimistic that Biden can win this but I am terrified at Trump laying waste to every thing if he loses and lashing out between Election Day and Inauguration Day. Is there anyway to swear Biden in the moment his win is confirmed? Can Trump just run away to Mar-a-Lag-O and refuse to come back? PLEASE!
Listen, while I really really REALLY hope Biden wins, here in Europe is still pretty obvious that Trump will win again.
And I know this is my opinion, but it feels the same way as in 2016. A lot of talk about Hillary, and a lot of “there is no way Trump will win”.
And he won.
It feels the same this year.
And I TRULY HOPE I AM WRONG!!!!
The only people who said there was no way Trump would win in 2016 were the ones who had forgotten just how much hatred there was for Hillary Clinton in the 90s and how she had been villified by the press and the Republicans for daring to actually want to do something meaningful as First Lady. Back then they attacked her for silly reasons like including her maiden name in her last name and then for things like trying to help devise a universal healthcare plan for all of us. She was demonized and some of the public went with it, while still liking her husband because, well, that’s how it goes doesn’t it? Yeah, she managed to win the Senate seat to rep NY and eventually become S.O.S., but the resentment for her in certain quarters never went away. Biden doesn’t have that sort of “baggage” plus he is a white man in a country where there are still some whose hackles go up at the idea of a female president. I won’t be comfortable until he is declared the winner on November 3rd/ 4th, but in terms of candidacy his situation is better than that of Hillary in 2016.
Yes to all of this. I’m getting a bit hopeful about the polls but know that Trump and the GOP and the Russians will do everything possible to steal this election. And even if Biden wins I worry about what Trump will do before he’s forced out of office. And all of this on top of a pandemic that isn’t going anywhere. I’m basically dreading the next several months. But I’m still volunteering, and I’m going to vote on election day before my son and I work as poll workers, because we’re here in Wisconsin and I want to be sure as many Biden votes as possible get counted on election day.
VOTE as if your life depends on it – IT DOES!
The polls are very promising (fivethirtyeight has it at 52.4%/41.8% right now) but we have to VOTE to make the polls a reality. The good news is turnout looks high so far, but with the pandemic who knows.
We desperately need the White House and the Senate, and hopefully it will bring a blue wave across so many local and state races too. Donate, volunteer, encourage!
I wrote 45 postcards for Ohio yesterday, and it was worth the cramped hand!
and 538 was the only poll that predicted Trump would win. Just keep that in mind for those worried. But yes, VOTE VOTE VOTE.
My biggest concern is election tampering especially in the swing states. I have so much anxiety over this.
The Canadian government has said its preparing for violence after the election. Trump has laid enough seed of doubt that I don’t think any outcome is going to be accepted across the board. Im honestly thinking it would be a good idea if the UN came in and monitored the election.
“I believed the polls then too, and the polls had Hillary Clinton with a significant edge over Donald Trump.”
No, they actually never had her with a very significant lead. For the overwhelming majority of the time, her lead was within the margin of error. Biden is polling at over 50% in many places now, a number that Hillary never got close to, much as I love her. We were all burned in 2016, but it wasn’t the polls that did it. It was underestimating how sexist and racist people in this country can be. It was the belief that someone like Trump could never be elected because he was so obviously unqualified.
Thanks for saying this.
Sometimes I feel crazy when I try to make this point. I distinctly remember 2016 being close and feeling very nervous and uncertain. Not nearly as nervous as I am now though.
I think Biden will win, but I worry we won’t see him as President due to Trump shenanigans.
I am so stinking mad right now. My senior mother lives in a effed up red state. She requested her mail in ballot in August. She finally received it this past weekend BUT it was for an election that already took place. Smdh. She said this election matters too much so she got up early this morning and went to two different polling places to vote. Why two? Because the first one was closed even though it was slated to be open at 7am. I CANT. Get your plan together, they are not going to make things easy.
I think the AG news was to aggravate a party of one – Trump himself.
And: I VOTED. Straight blue. I can’t add much this year, but I’ve done my duty.
In the past few presidential elections, the Real Clear Politics average and the IBD poll have both predicted the winner.
In fact, they both had Hilary in the lead right up until two weeks before the election when Comey dropped a bomb. Trump then eeked out ahead by 2 points and I started having serious anxiety. The rest, we know.
The good news is that every poll has Biden up by 5-15 points, especially since Trump’s “Covita” moment.
Polls don’t matter because you know, 2016. Peeps just need to vote like there are no polls.
I’m doing my ballot today or tomorrow and mailing it on Thursday. Feels good that I’ll have done my duty to get that orange crumb voted out and Biden and Kamala voted in.
That’s promising, but I won’t believe any of it until Biden is sworn in! Trump unfortunately has a large devoted following.
The GOP was caught setting up dummy ballot boxes in front of churches and gun shops in California. Pretty sure they are doing it in the other states too. People please check online with the elections office and find the right box. I can’t imagine how many votes were destroyed by these turds.
Rooting for Biden and Harris all the way here from the UK!
I really hope the majority of Americans have learned their lesson this time around.
Just to be clear, the majority of Americans did not vote him into office last time, either. Trump likes to rewrite history and pretend he won the popular vote, and not by gaming the system, but that is not the case. I’m just kindly asking that you be aware of your word choice and not spread the misinformation that Trump likes to pass off as “fact”.
I won’t feel at ease until Biden is sworn in as president. All the voter suppression shenanigans are giving me anxiety.