I’m punch-drunk and upset, but let’s talk about how, four years later, pollsters, polls and election data were completely wrong. I mean, yes, there are votes left to be counted and I strongly suspect that Joe Biden’s consistent polling around 51-53% will probably be reflected in the popular vote no matter what. Like, that was never in question – Biden will win the popular vote. But why and how did pollsters/poll-analysts like Nate Silver get the state-by-state races so wrong in 2016 and 2020? People were predicting eight-point spreads in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania and it’s just not there. People are mad at Nate Silver and 538. Is he a total hack? Perhaps.
It’s worth remembering that Silver isn’t actually a pollster – he’s always been just straight analysis, and all about the data he collects from polls. While I’m here for the mockery of Silver, I think it’s worth considering that the data was always bad, and that there’s just something fundamentally wrong with the American electorate which is not being reflected in modern polls.
Also: as Nate Silver’s star falls, Steve Kornacki’s star is yet again on the rise. There can only be one! MSNBC’s big board expert Steve Kornacki is surviving on Diet Coke and his Election Wall.
I do genuinely think Nate Silver should have to go to jail.
— Will Sloan (@WillSloanEsq) November 4, 2020
Watching Steve Kornacki like I watch a flight attendant so I’ll know when it’s time to panic
— blaire erskine (@blaireerskine) November 4, 2020
Nate Silver retire bitch
— Siobhan Thompson, mysterious European heiress (@vornietom) November 4, 2020
No matter who wins the presidency Nate Silver needs to catch these hands.
— Kofie (@Kofie) November 4, 2020
Win or lose we fire Nate Silver out of a cannon into the sun at dawn
— Julia Claire (@ohJuliatweets) November 4, 2020
Having pizza and some beers while watching Steve Kornacki slowly descend into madness over the course of six straight hours of television is an American tradition unlike any other.
— Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann) November 4, 2020
Nate Silver watching his election forecast fail for the second straight presidential election pic.twitter.com/fnds0fDZh2
— Matthew McGovern (@MatthewMcGovern) November 4, 2020
Nate Silver every four years: pic.twitter.com/aJCk35npE3
— Conor Ryan (@ConorRyan_93) November 4, 2020
🚨STEVE KORNACKI HYPE METER 🚨
✅ Khakis: ironed, on
✅ Sleeves: rolled
✅ Laser focus: on the Big Board
✅ Index finger: feeling extra clicky
✅ Rolled papers & pen: in hands
✅ Arms: gesticulating wildly
✅ Tie: tight, straight, clipless pic.twitter.com/GLLq5fFJNS
— joel tyler (@joeltyler_) November 4, 2020
Photos courtesy of Getty.