I’m punch-drunk and upset, but let’s talk about how, four years later, pollsters, polls and election data were completely wrong. I mean, yes, there are votes left to be counted and I strongly suspect that Joe Biden’s consistent polling around 51-53% will probably be reflected in the popular vote no matter what. Like, that was never in question – Biden will win the popular vote. But why and how did pollsters/poll-analysts like Nate Silver get the state-by-state races so wrong in 2016 and 2020? People were predicting eight-point spreads in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania and it’s just not there. People are mad at Nate Silver and 538. Is he a total hack? Perhaps.
It’s worth remembering that Silver isn’t actually a pollster – he’s always been just straight analysis, and all about the data he collects from polls. While I’m here for the mockery of Silver, I think it’s worth considering that the data was always bad, and that there’s just something fundamentally wrong with the American electorate which is not being reflected in modern polls.
Also: as Nate Silver’s star falls, Steve Kornacki’s star is yet again on the rise. There can only be one! MSNBC’s big board expert Steve Kornacki is surviving on Diet Coke and his Election Wall.
I do genuinely think Nate Silver should have to go to jail.
— Will Sloan (@WillSloanEsq) November 4, 2020
Watching Steve Kornacki like I watch a flight attendant so I’ll know when it’s time to panic
— blaire erskine (@blaireerskine) November 4, 2020
Nate Silver retire bitch
— Siobhan Thompson, mysterious European heiress (@vornietom) November 4, 2020
No matter who wins the presidency Nate Silver needs to catch these hands.
— Kofie (@Kofie) November 4, 2020
Win or lose we fire Nate Silver out of a cannon into the sun at dawn
— Julia Claire (@ohJuliatweets) November 4, 2020
Having pizza and some beers while watching Steve Kornacki slowly descend into madness over the course of six straight hours of television is an American tradition unlike any other.
— Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann) November 4, 2020
Nate Silver watching his election forecast fail for the second straight presidential election pic.twitter.com/fnds0fDZh2
— Matthew McGovern (@MatthewMcGovern) November 4, 2020
Nate Silver every four years: pic.twitter.com/aJCk35npE3
— Conor Ryan (@ConorRyan_93) November 4, 2020
🚨STEVE KORNACKI HYPE METER 🚨
✅ Khakis: ironed, on
✅ Sleeves: rolled
✅ Laser focus: on the Big Board
✅ Index finger: feeling extra clicky
✅ Rolled papers & pen: in hands
✅ Arms: gesticulating wildly
✅ Tie: tight, straight, clipless pic.twitter.com/GLLq5fFJNS— joel tyler (@joeltyler_) November 4, 2020
Photos courtesy of Getty.
upper middle class boomers are silent trump voters. They would never be so gauche as to put a flag up or tell anybody but they all voted for him for sure.
That’s what I think, too. Anytime you have self-reported data, there’s room for error, particularly if there’s some embarrassment involved. What I gather is folks are ashamed to admit who they vote for in polls, but in the privacy of the election booth it’s a whole other story.
This. So much this. Many of the wealthier people in my town happily vote for Trump. They just don’t announce it, but they’re fine with sexism, racism, xenophobia, and homophobia. They know they’ll be safe, no matter what.
To add to your point the media needs to stop giving airtime to the so called “undecided” voter. They don’t exist. They are Trump voters who need attention and so pretend to be conflicted
This. It ticks me off every time I see one interviewed because last election someone I knew personally was a Trump supporter was interviewed as an undecided acting all coy. If they are undecided they are voting Republicans no matter what and that’s all there is to it. Democrats aren’t ashamed to say they are democrats and until Trump, it wasn’t as shameful to say Republican, but if you have even a smidgen of self awareness you know what being a Trump supporter says about you. The media is part of the problem with the clusterf&ck we are in, they pander to anyone who will bring in the ratings and thereby normalizing an awful lot of evil.
Michael Moore, I think, was the one who suggested that “shy” Trump voters don’t participate in polls, because they’re part of Fake News and the Deep State.
Yes. I know several-and friends’ elderly parents too (even if their kids are Democrats). They wouldn’t be caught dead putting up signs or participating in those tacky ass Trump trains. But they are way more concerned about “socialism” than anything else, and have been brainwashed by years of Fox news.
Oh lord this. We have relatives in Florida. The fear of socialism runs deep. An Aunt’s love for repeating FOX news ‘stories’ to us really happened when she was in her 60’s and we couldn’t believe it. She grew up and lived in Canada for 30 years! But Fox news is her bible now.
@ MaryContrary, not true!! I am a white baby boomer and we moved from Houston, Texas to Bryan, Texas. I had proudly displayed my Democrat signs every election and voted every election, but in 2016 that changed. I proudly had my Sanders, then Clinton signs up. This year I had my Biden/Harris, BLM, climate change and a number of other signs ready to put up until I heard that my husband, a retina physician, and my daughter who works at the clinic, was being harassed and intimidated by Agent Orange supporters in 2016. It was too dangerous for me to put up signs this year, as he was fearful for our safety!! It all came together when I had a neighbor call me in 2016 to thank me for my signs, she was more aware as to the backlash that stews in this town. I had entered a position of true threat if I put my signs up, including my family during this election and apparently the past elections as well, but none greater than 2016.
Not true in Orlando, a big city. The upper middle class to wealthy have been extremely vocal here, to the point they look at you aghast that you aren’t voting for Trump. I’m talking partners in law firms, owners of business, lawyers, friends, neighbors, who all are upper middle class to wealthy. And I’m also talking gay friends.
Gen X’ers too. One of my brothers and his wife would never so much as put up a bumper sticker, never. they look so banal. You would never know it. There was zero possibility they would ever not vote trump. I knew it. My SIL shocked me in 2016 because she has an advanced degree, but I learned.
Do you have data here, Darla? I’d be curious.
I think young white voters, especially men, are also Trump voters
and @Darla. there’s no evidence to point to GenX supporting Trump. Howard Dean’s nasty tweet about GenX got a lot of feedback – lumping GenX in with Boomers b/c we’re a small group does NOT mean we vote or think like Boomers
Another Gen Xer here and couldn’t agree more.
Yeah, that’s why I asked for data rather than anecdotes. I am sincerely curious about how Gen X went. And as a Gen X’er, it appalls me to be lumped in with Boomers…who certainly aren’t all bad, but taken as a whole…(my boomer brother and sister also voted Biden and we all convinced my 88 year-old mom to vote in the best interest of her children instead of with her sisters!)
This…I worked a polling station in my town. My precinct was in an area of town where 99% of voters were white, upper to upper middle class. End of the night the only two, of nine total, precincts in town that went for Trump were mine and the other precinct that was the same demographic. Rest of the town precincts had a mix of race/income/etc. and went for Biden by wide margins.
@ Econdista, my husband and I are upper middle class boomers and have never voted for a Republicant’s!! Though my son is married into a family of Agent Orange supporters, but we a third generation of Democrats. When my father was alive, he would sneak over to the parking lot of my sisters pharmacy and apply all democratic challengers in the state of WI on their bumper sticker at the age of 85. The one underlining reason that I have seen consistently with Agent Orange supporters is what he does for them. Nothing more, only what’s in it for them. They could care less that he’s destroying our lands, water and air. They could care less that he is a sexual predator and a criminal. They only care what he does for them. They are shortsighted and self absorbed. It sickens me that we have a country of people who are so selfish that they only think for themselves. They should be ashamed for being Trump supporters, they should walk in shame along with everyone else who has supported the re-election of ANY RepubliCANTS in this election.
I don’t even know how to feel this morning. This should not have been that close. Ugh.
I learned from 2016 not to trust the polls. There’s still hope!
Steve K is just fantastic!!! I was switching between CNN and MSNBC but stayed with MSNBC because of Steve.
After the 2016 experience, I didn’t think I could take Steve’s hyper “what if’s”. Yet I found myself preferring his approach versus CNN’s Blitzer/King duo (John was fine; Wolf was just too much for me).
Political polls are basically worthless. The margin of error seems more like 8-10 percent, not 3-5 percent.
Remember when the pollsters told us they corrected the errors from 2016? Yeah, right.
Agree, there is no way polls are reaching a representative cross-section at this point. People aren’t answering their phones, and I’m skeptical how up to date the cell information is. And internet polls come with an entirely different set of issues… given how inaccurate they are, I wish they would get rid of them.
At least 2016 prepared us for this. These margins are….terrifyingly close, and the implications of that portend a reckoning in this country, but they likely wouldn’t exist if people had been complacent. We may win this by the skin of our teeth, but to topple an incumbent is no easy feat.
my 16 year old daughter and I were flipping too and decided to stick with Steve and the panel of women. It was awesome to see her think about the importance of Steve’s math knowledge as she is taking probability in math soon and she got to hear three women, who are pretty different in their experiences and perspectives, analyze and converse about issues and elections.
I am gutted. Even if Joe wins which I still hope he does I am disgusted and disillusioned and not proud of America. Even though Joe will win the popular vote there are too many clueless delusional racist hateful greedy selfish Americans and too many of them assert they are Christians. Really ashamed and disillusioned.
Last night as I went to bed at 12:30am my time I was thinking America will never do better – the tide has turned. If Joe wins we’ll have even more overt hate violence racism homophobia bigotry about liberals, misinformation/propaganda about capitalism and socialism – the list goes on.
Yeah, I don’t know how we can recover from Trumpism even if/when Trump isn’t in office. I do think Fox News and other right wing propaganda outlets are a big part of the problem. I think the gains Trump made with the Latinx populations come straight from them being brainwashed into thinking that somehow Trump was their guy,
With Latinx, it’s a huge group that is not lockstep with each other. One overriding factor is social conservatism. Anti-abortion, very religious, somewhat anti-LGBT when you look at generalizations, patriarchal in nature/culture. The younger Latinx demos may be different, but in Miami-Dade, they really took to Trump’s bombast. Crazy, since they wildly broke for Hillary in 16.
And Cubans and Venezuelans don’t want socialism. Democrats have a huge Latino problem on their hands.
Florida is really in the hands of their Cuban and Venezuelan population. I want to be sympathetic to my brothers and sisters but they are coming in brain washed and voting against what they call “socialism”. I just have to have bigger and better hopes for future generations. I do believe that if we can turn this country blue this year, the future will be green, blue, and purple. But I am keeping my head down until all votes are counted (my deepest concern is that they won’t be, since thats what trump needs in order to win).
Guessing that the LatinX Trumpers are either white or white passing. They can afford to vote against LatinX interests when it doesn’t affect them. I mean George Zimmerman is LatinX.
Esmom I read a long thread on Twitter this morning ranting that part of liberals problems with Latinx is the term itself. That the x is not spanish, and the a and o are. And that only white liberals use the term. SO apparently people like me have really pissed off Latinx, excuse me, LATINOS and LATINAS, by using this term. Not babies in cages and trump’s racism.
Imagine my embarrassment over my faux paus.
But you know what they say, white women like me need to LISTEN, not speak, so from now on I will shut up about babies in cages, and never ever, fart in the elevator again by using the term Latinx. My bad!
If I’m Biden day 1, project 1 is the return of the fairness doctrine. It would dismantle the Fox foreign interference factory engineered by foreign meddler Murdoch altogether.
Project 2 is prosecuting the Trump Admin.
@Darla- The term pisses me off for that very reason. It feels like another colonisation from the white liberal movement. Let us decide what the term should be. I know there are enough Woke folks in the Latino community to get that sorted.
That’s still not going to make me vote for a fascist asshole who called my people rapists (among other horrid things) and has put them into concentration camps. Anyone who uses the LatinX thing is just throwing out excuses. It’s down to racism, classism, and sexism. Those things (plus some weird unspoken caste system) are the real problem in the Latino community right now.
And before anyone asks, I’m pretty progressive.
@MoontheLoon, I was schooled to use Latinx by Latinos and Latinas at the universities I have worked for, and they never said it was imposed upon them by white people. They absolutely embrace the term, and don’t see it as white liberal anything. But I can see why people outside academia and social justice movements would find the term confusing and off putting.
Amen about Latinx. No one from Mexico or South America uses this term. POC in academic circles are using it. I attended a Zoom conference and thought, “I should say something”. I was invited to the table. I felt like I would be excluded from the table of I said, “Don’t call my people that. WE don’t call ourselves Latinx. This is Anglo BS to further group us by race instead of by who we are. When I tell folks, they are all, “well, we should use the vernacular so that we don’t offend.” Uh, I AM OFFENDED by that. And I still was a coward…
My daughter’s best friend’s family is a mix of Cuban and Dominican. They are huge Trumpsters. I could never imagine an 18 year old kid being so bigoted, but yeah, seen it first hand. They are one issue voters: abortion. The right is teaching them to hate and “own the libs” young here in FL.
THIS, and all of this.
I’m from Europe and I’m not gonna lie, when I woke up this morning to the news I thought Americans were a lost cause…
Obviously not the 50 to 55 % of people who voted for Biden. But when you take in account the people who voted for Trump and those who didn’t care enough to vote…
I felt incredibly sad for all of you celibitchies and for my American friends. I honnestly feel you despair and anger, even if Biden might still win.
What scares me the most is that violent angry populists are gaining power in so many part of the world including Europe… I really makes me hopeless about the human race 🙁 All of us progressives will have to keep fighting the good fights.
I’ll keep my finger crossed for a Biden/Harris win.
Even with that win, we are a lost cause.
No, lanne, you are not. There are far more decent, empathetic and intelligent Americans in your country than there are dicks. Your people are a long way from lost. You just got blown around in a big storm.
I stress ate and passed out on the couch at 1030p, forgetting to get booze. Woke up at 230a to this nonsense, and just after the liquor store closed. Horrible mistake
I had empanadas and chips and salsa delivered, drank whiskey, and woke up gross and hungover.
Ugh. I felt too sick to eat or drink. Maybe this will help me lose the 25 pounds I’ve gained from covid stress eating.
I ate frozen pizza and drank wine. Had to go get some wine at 7-11 because I hadn’t prepared adequately. Also woke up gross and slightly hungover.
A model is only as good as the data used to create it. And I know people are all about “shy trump voters” but in my area trump voter are not shy! Fire all pollsters and start over.
I am gutted by how close this “battle for the should of our nation” turned out to be, Even if Biden manages to hang on to an electoral majority we’ll still have a republican senate and therefore a stifled agenda. Something is truly broken in our electorate.
I really do think there are so many Shy Trumpers – they’re voting for him but ashamed to admit it (to pollsters, friends, family, etc).
A person’s vote is between them and the ballot paper, but I really do wish this election that people had to wear their selfishness – if I was in America I’d want to know which of my friends, family, colleagues and acquaintances are ok with abhorrent racism/misogyny/ableism so long as they think they might get a tax break/outlaw abortion.
When Trump won in 2016 I was so upset that I told anybody on my Facebook who voted for Trump to unfriend me. I was very surprised at who did, only 2-3 people. I know that most of my high school friends voted for Trump but they didn’t unfriend me. I think a lot of it has to do with affection for and from the past but I didn’t go to my last two high school reunions because I do not want to schmooze with the likes of Trumpeters.
I’m from California but just this past week I had to move to a Southern red state to get a job and a place to live because I don’t speak Spanish and I’m not young – over 65 actually. I voted for Biden and down ticket before I left.
There”s a Confederate flag next door and a Confederate flag across the street. One of them is navy blue which my housemate takes to be law enforcement that supports the killing of blacks. (He was born and raised in this town.) It’s a good thing I know how to be phony nice even though it makes my blood boil.
“Phony nice” is the way to make it in red-voting Southern world. Some really are decent people – I hope I am considered in that group. But there is an element of passive-aggressive judgmental types that will vote against their own self-interest and actually helping others.
I’ll never understand it, but it’s clearly not limited to the south, either. I was actually surprised that my own red area voted for some lesser known, outspent downticket Dems at a much higher percent than normal. There is always hope!
Soupie, I wish you had the resources to have stayed. I feel for you and wish you the best.
I live in the Bay Area. We walk our dog up the hill near the wealthier homes in Berkeley, CA. A house had the Blue Lives Matter flag that you describe up. I grew up around mostly Black and Mexican-American working class people. I am Mexican American. That flag made me afraid.
He didn’t win California, but Trump emboldens racists, and he makes their beliefs mainstream.
I went to bed at 10 and did not watch the reports. My mental health wouldn’t allow it.
Hi, Soupie. I’m from SoCal, too, but from Compton/Watts. I now live near the hills near Berkeley. Did you grow up I. west LA or in Orange County? Yes, the one issue voters are taking over.
The flag we saw was an American flag with blue where there is supposed to be red. It was flown in Charlottesville where the young woman protester was struck by a car. We saw the flag a few weeks after that happened. It sent chills down my spine. The liberal Bay Area is one of the places with a TON of hidden and not so hidden racism. My family who look like POC have had a lot of run ins with “Karen’s”, racists men, and police. It’s heartbreaking.
I work in digital marketing and have done my fair share of online surveys or website satisfaction surveys, focus groups, that sort of thing.
People tell you things about themselves that are not true. All the time. It is consistently the case that when you ask someone something like, What would you do if XYZ? On this website, if you wanted to find XYZ, where would you click? They will show you or tell you something that is not in line with reality.
Sometimes because they don’t actually know themselves well enough but often because they are trying to appear smart or seem like they are different than they actually are.
Anyway that’s what I think is going wrong here. We are asking fallible, sometimes flat out stupid, human beings to tell us what they are going to do and taking their word as gospel. It’s bad data.
Thanks Christina. I actually lived in the Berkeley hills back in the late seventies (Arlington). Lived in San Francisco proper for many years, Marin County, Palo Alto… you name it, I was a Bay Area girl back in the day.
I am from Southern California and it is very very red there. I do not understand how it went blue yesterday. So many white upper middle class plus Mexican and Hispanic Catholics are voting red more than ever because of the abortion issue. I can’t stand one issue voters. They all think they’ll go to Hell if they vote for Joe Biden. So foolish.
What I described is the Confederate flag but in all blue instead of red white and blue, so I’m curious. Maybe that is a blue lives matter flag. I don’t know. First time I’ve been around such a flag. Somebody clue me.
People are not being truthful in answering polls when you have a candidate like Trump. I’m Latina but I’m telling you there are many who go GOP. They are (by my personal observations) who are fine with kids in cages especially it would seem the Cuban community in Florida. And overall I suspect they are titillated by what they see as DT’s machismo. IMO. DT may be polarzing but he pulls in the ratings $$$. And finally gerrymandering, gerrymandering, gerrymandering!!!
All I can say is that I blocked his sorry ass on 08.11.2016 and never ever looked back.
I know people (educated, accomplished, etc not your average run of the mill rejects from HeeHaw) who are voting for Trump and voted for Trump in 2016 just because of their bottom line. Sure they think he’s a buffoon and rude but “he makes them money in the stock market so who cares about the 10,000 other bad things he does”. No, he falsely inflated the stock market to make it look like it was making money. Selfish. They can’t see the future through their own greed.
They aren’t 1%’ er’s so they aren’t actually gaining anything but a false notion that they are earning money in a very unstable market.
I went to a friends house last night–one of my best friends in the world–round the world travel buddy. We have watched the last 4 election returns together–it’s been a ritual. I got there at 8 and left by 8:30. Went home and took a sleep aid and went to sleep (of course I woke up every 2 hours and checked). That’s what I’m struggling with–my utter disappointment in my fellow Americans. A McDonalds manager would be fired if his record looked like Trumps. This isn’t a logical vote, it’s an emotional vote. What are white Americans voting to protect? What are they willing to accept? I always thought I understood white people. I grew up in all white neighborhoods, was always the only black kid in classes growing up. At one point, I remember my parents gently trying to tell me (parents grew up in the south) that the people I grew up with weren’t necessarily my allies, that they could turn on me, weaponize my blackness against me. I didn’t understand. It’s not that I thought my parents were lying–I didn’t–it’s just I had no frame of reference for seeing my friends and their parents and my neighbors any differently (looking back, there are certainly incidences I experienced that, as a child, went over my head, but looking back, I can see some low-key racism directed my way). I studied Nazi germany and thought, “that could never be us–this is AMERICA”. I was explaining that to my lovely white best friend and her husband–and I just had to go. They got it–they understood, and I’m not mad at them.
But it came so clear to me. I can never out-perform, out-talent, out-merit, out-succeed people who want to see me as less than, and who could, while smiling in my face, do everything they can to undermine me if they don’t want me there. (That’s the lesson of Meghan Markle and why she resonates so much with black women–she’s the very personification of our daily lives). But that’s not even it–I always knew that–most of us are wise enough to reject “respectability politics” and know you can’t “respect” your way to a seat at the table. What got me last night was the thought that many, many people in this country, even if they aren’t outwardly racist themselves, will stand by and do nothing in the face of racism because they tacitly support racism–maybe even more than they they realize themselves. Racism isn’t a dealbreaker for them because it doesn’t affect them. And in the US, our mantra is “everything’s okay because I’m fine”. That’s why we have whackos who won’t wear masks and think only about their own self-interest. Freedom in the US means “freedom to care only about myself.”
Even if Biden wins, which he should, our divide is so deep, and our sense of community so corrupted, that I just can’t see a way forward. If Biden becomes president, he will be working with a Senate that will have, as its goal. opposing everything he proposes for spite. America will continue to embolden despots around the world. Too many of my colleagues, neighbors, fellow citizens will turn their face away from injustice, and sit on their couch watching TV. In the 1930s ordinary Germans stood by and watched while their fellow Germans lost their rights, their property, and eventually their lives.
I will never feel safe in America again. When my parents are no longer alive, I may leave.
I’m so sorry@ Ianne. I’ve been hoping that we were at rock bottom during this period, but apparently not. I still believe we will be better in the long run, but you have to take care of yourself now (💗)
Preach it, Lanne. And I’m so sorry. I am ashamed to be white and I shouldn’t be. It should be different. But after the past 12 years, I don’t believe it ever will be. ☹️
“WE ARE FIGHTING AN ENEMY WE’VE SHOWN EXQUISITE GRACE, AN ENEMY WE’VE TRIED TO EDUCATE, CODDLE, AND OUTRUN, AN ENEMY THAT NEVER TIRES OF KILLING ITSELF, JUST SO IT CAN WATCH US DIE. WHITE PEOPLE GONE WHITE. WHAT WE GONE DO?”
– how to slowly kill yourself and others in America, Kiese Laymon
You have said this so beautifully and I share your grief. I have dual citizenship and if Biden wins, I am thinking of relocating because I don’t think I can do another 4 yrs of this. Like you it’s knowing who people really are that’s making my stomach ache and realizing that these people would look the other way while the worse is done to their neighbors and still think themselves good people and who is to disagree. Once again we’ve been living in a echo chamber because this is shocking, yet it shouldn’t be. Look at all that has happened in the last 4yrs and really when you really consider, where was the nationwide fury over it all. It was the usual suspects that agitate to stop the madness and for things to improve, but most Americans just went on with life like nothing was happening.
Lanne, send you a big hug, mija. Black women suck up so much to survive. I am Mexican American In liberal CA. It’s exactly as you say.
Blessings to you. You do deserve better, and there are plenty of lighter skinned people of color, my people included who have “made it” who are just as bad, who don’t have to deal with the onslaught of racism that Black people, Black women, face, who don’t completely understand how bad it is. Breonna Taylor’s murder is sad to them, but they don’t feel it inside, and they want jobs and their investments to improve. So many of my dearest friends have left CA because of the racism. And I succeeded. I have light skin. My brothers and sisters who left are chocolate brown and can’t pass like I can. It makes me nauseated because I have been treated better by racist/biased people while watching the people I love be slighted or insulted in front of my very eyes. I feel guilt about the advantage I have as I can pass for white. In small interactions where you don’t tell the person at the counter, at the market, at a child’s school, at work, all of the places where you feel and see it but everyone but the victim of racism isn’t quite sure that the clerk was being racist; it is death by a thousand cuts.
Your story and those of my friends continue to push me to have hard conversations with folks who think that they are fine and not biased or racist, but they are. For you, I will continue to fight from where I am as hard and as strategically as I can. My daughter is a Black woman, and she is light skinned, but she can’t pass like I can, and I fight for her, too. She also wants to leave the country. Authoritarianism is unleashing racists just about everywhere throughout Europe. Wishing we could move to the Caribbean, but I’m afraid of hurricanes, lol.
Honestly Lanne ,I feel the same way. I have a dual citizenship and so glad my kids can get an EU passport through my husband. If nothing else, I want them to have an alternative way out if things get worse. I will never trust this country to do the right thing. It really is everyone for themselves and if it doesn’t affect me, don’t want to hear your “complaining “. I will say this, next time someone is going on about injustice, don’t expect black people to stand up for you in solidarity as they always expect, because no one stands up for us. Just want to withdraw into myself and only fight for those who will fight for me.
I am a 57 year old white suburban mom, and believe me, I am as disappointed in white Americans as you are…we are a disgrace to the generations who came before us and laid down their lives for the freedoms we all take for granted everyday. I wish I could move to a more civil country, but God knows, the good ones don’t want Americans either!!
Long time reader but first time commenting. @LANNE – your comment brought me to tears. I have been numb all night and morning and this just broke me. I fear for our children and our future in America, no matter who wins the presidency.
Max, I feel you. Lanne comment brought tears to me, too. Sending you a bug hug. We will fight. We can’t let them win, even if Trump wins. If Biden gets in, we will have Kamala. I think that she understands what our communities are feeling. She is strong, she embraces her Blackness with love, and she will fight them.
@Christina – big hugs to you too. And you are right. Thank you for the kick to keep fighting. Just exhausted. This site is my sanity break and gives me hope that like minded people exist and to keep doing the work.
I read on twitter last night- i don’t remember whose account it was- that there is no algorithm for racism. When a poll asks questions, racists never tell the truth about racism, because they know racism is looked down upon.
So the racism is hidden, and that’s what trump voters voted for.
Do you want to make life better for black americans, all minorities and immigrants.
The answer is no from every person who voted for trump.
They also seem to have taken to his – i care about no one but me- because they don’t care about not doing anything about covid. They just think, i won’t die, i don’t think anyone in my family will die- screw everyone else.
As a whole, white americans are bad people. Rotten to the core.
I am one of them.
I voted and donated to democrats (everyone i donate to loses- this time it was Espy in Mississippi and Harrison in South Carolina.)
But we are part of something that is evil and rotten. And i’m glad i never brought kids into this world.
Ariel, I admire you. You are the person I want to have kids. You understand that the United States has denied its racism and embraces it. People like you are people who fight for all of us. Thank you.
Steve is my Election2020 crush.
There has been a steady rise of Hispanics, traditionally Catholic, joining Evangelical churches, conservative in outlook. Do not give into despair. 2222 will see 34 Senate seats up for election. The Senate seats are Class 3, elected in 2016, 12 Democrats, 22 Republicans. Play the long game
I agree with you. We are going to squeak out a win with Biden, and in 22 we come for the Senate. I’ll be damned if they’re gonna lick me by making me feel hopeless.
I feel like crap now and hating on a lot of people today, but will continue to vote and advocate for progressive causes and accountability and fairness from this rotten system.
So much of the analysis abt the Latinx vote is just…one dimensional. Many of them abstained from voting because many of them did not feel spoken to by Biden and the Democrats. Whether that’s true is beside the point—that is how they felt, and that led to a downturn in voter turnout that’s reflected in the results.
Miami Cubans are a historically right leaning voting block, but they went for Hilary in 2016. Putting this down to them, saying it’s bc they are fearful of socialism, etc., is ironically enough the exact same one sided analysis of events that people are aiming to avoid by providing that take in the first place.
There are socially conservative elements among Latinx voters, yes, but what was unfortunately the case in this instance really was disillusionment. Many people who are more progressive on immigration reform either reluctantly voted for Biden, or didn’t vote, bc they felt Biden did not promise a big enough shift in terms of immigration policy like they desired. For many, it’s not just enough to stop putting children in cages—the system as a whole, regardless of that policy, is inhumane in its treatment of people. They wanted more of a promise for change, and again, they did not feel Biden’s platform advocated for such.
And I’ve seen a lot of people bring up the idea that many legal/documented immigrants hate undocumented immigrants and therefore voted for Trump—yes, many Latinx people feel contemptuous and hateful of undocumented immigrants, but as always, the reality of it is much more complicated than just that. Many of them don’t like undocumented immigrants, but they are also in favour of policy that makes it easier for people to immigrate, legally, to America, and think immigration reform is critical. And once again, many of them did not feel Biden reached out to them and communicated his policies on this effectively.
I’m leaving a lot out, particularly things like ICE, America’s history of foreign intervention in Latin America etc. But suffice it to say, shit’s immensely complicated, and I’d urge people to leave room for a full spectrum of views, even those that seem contradictory to each other but come from the same source.
As for Nate Silver—his whole smug shtick has always been “I’m a numbers analyst not a pollster” as if that lends him more credibility in his analysis. But as it usually happens, when all you do is crunch numbers, you do lose sight of the human side of it all. Trump + the Republicans seem to defy convention bc Americans, particularly on the progressive side, have not taken an honest accounting of just how deep, how normalized, and how *tolerated* racism has been in America. Awareness is changing, which is wonderful, but that’s what it comes down to sadly. Even in this election, people who knew it would be close are shocked and dismayed at the results—they shouldn’t be. The shock and the dismay is part of why the results are a reality. Progressive Americans need to realize that, depressingly enough, racism is not anathema to America, but a part of the country’s fabric. Acceptance is the first step to change. That holds true here more than anywhere else.
Finally—Abt Steve Kornacki—I would hit that. 100%. And I am surprised at just how much that whole shirt sleeves rolled up intensity is doing it for me. But there we go. As I said, acceptance is important, and I accept this part of myself. 😂
Anyone who doesn’t vote because a candidate “doesn’t speak to them” can stfu. Im a college educated Indian woman and no candidate has ever cared about me and I still vote every damn year, and not for the fascists. Don’t you dare make excuses for them.
You’re ignoring that the trump campaign spent big money in Florida specifically targeting Cubans and Venezuelans with propaganda about socialism, and they were stupid enough to fall for it.
No kidding. I’m a brown woman and I live in a solid blue state that hasn’t been in play since the 80’s. I’ve never been spoken to by a candidate. Yet I’m able to vote year after year. We need to stop making excuses for people who have to be wooed and coddled before they can vote. It is BS.
Agree with you on this Sarah. These candidates aren’t our friends but I’m not getting into bed with racists and mysogynists because the Democratic platform doesn’t meet my Christmas list. They don’t need excuses for their racism. Look at that guy laughing about ambushing the Biden campaign bus in Texas and hitting the staffers car. He was a brown skinned Latin man who was full on MAGA, all in and identifying with the QAnons and Nazis. These toxic guys don’t want understanding or common ground, they just want to use us as a ladder to climb on and then push away.
In this election there was only one choice, the candidate not bent on destroying America and the world. Anyone who couldn’t look pass themselves to recognize that, is part of the problem. Nothing complicated about any of this, some people are selfish, stupid, racist and greedy which led them to either sit it out, or vote for a monster. End of story.
People are not going to buy into and participate in a system that they don’t feel a stake in. It’s as simple as that. I know that’s difficult to really feel a lot of empathy for, because how can people *not* feel a stake in ending the rising tide of fascism and the deterioration of democracy?
But what’s important to keep in mind here is that this is not always the result of a moral or ideological failing on the part of the individual. A lot of people are incredibly disengaged from politics in this country through no fault of their own. The rising tide of fake news doesn’t help matters. It’s tempting to frame this as an individual problem, but it’s easy to solve from an institutional point of view, and this election itself provides multiple examples of that.
Arizona, for example, saw a huge swing towards the Democrats, that came from the concerted efforts of grassroots volunteers who organized over four years to break down systematic barriers to voting, to reach out, canvas, and mobilize people to vote for the Democrats. And it worked–voter turnout was at an all time high, they added two Dem senators to the govt.
Another example is Georgia, where every election brings it closer to becoming Democrat, where more and more barriers to voting are torn down. Stacey Abrams deserves a huge amount of credit for the work she’s done on that front. And it used to be a solid “red state” that people would dismiss as full of gun toting conservatives and nothing else. Things changed only when people saw there was a real possibility of change, which only happened after a lot of effort to get that information about Dem candidates out.
I could keep listening examples. Nebraska and Ernie Chambers is one. Harris County, Texas, which was solidly red in 2004, successfully flipped to blue even though people thought it impossible at one time. As one of the former precinct captains from the county, who started out in 2004 when Bush was in office, put it on Twitter: “When you let people know they’re not alone, changes happen.” Which says it all.
It’s so easy to focus on the ideological differences at play, as if that’s the be-all end-all. It’s easy to blame people for their own lack of awareness, but that’s perhaps the easiest thing of all to fix by political candidates. And even the most immovable, opposing ideologies can be countered and changed through consistent outreach, by identifying and breaking down barriers to accessing accurate information, by showing explicitly to people how they would be helped by supporting Democratic policies. And it can be done without compromising on progressive ideals. We have proof of that.
With Miami Cubans for example–they’re not a uniform voting block. There are variations to their degree of conservatism among them too. That might not seem like a whole lot, but that is the sort of thing Democrats can definitely build on as a start. They also fell prey to a hugely co-ordinated misinformation campaign from the Republicans, another thing that can be easily countered by the Democrats. But the key here is to do that outreach, to remove institutional barriers that hinder that outreach from being performed. How many precinct captain positions are filled currently for the Democrats in the Miami-Dade county? That are a crucial first step that allows Democrats to canvas and build relationships with local voters. There are lots of other things like that, which people overlook, which help significantly.
This isn’t to say that there aren’t horrendous people out there. There are. Some people can’t be reasoned with in their prejudices. But there’s nothing to lose in trying. The worst thing that can happen to the Democrats is they don’t win–but even showing themselves to be a fighting force makes ALL the difference in encouraging Democrat turnout the next time. Sometimes, just showing people you’ll fight for them is all that’s necessary.
I hate to be “that guy,” but…. I don’t believe the results. Like I flat out don’t believe Texas went red. I flat out don’t believe Florida went red.
Again TOO GDMN MANY people voted for the GOP, but I just. don’t. believe. this for a hot second. The polls were not that wrong. It’s time to take a forensic look at the machines.
Happy to see I’m not the only one looking at this election with a “prosecutorial” mind….I’t;s been proven many times that the machines are easily hacked.
There were huge issues with ballots in Miami Dade at the post office with ballots sitting and not being delivered. I don’t know if that ever got resolved. As others have said, even if Biden wins, the Trump supporter will still be there, hating the “libs” and causing chaos. I served in the military, fought during wartime, and I’m utterly ashamed of my fellow Americans. What was my fellow soldiers and my sacrifice for if we are left with this hatred and bigotry?
Trump koolaid drinking cult members will fly their confederate flags and Trump flags and police flags but they won’t tell pollsters the truth, or they lie on purpose because they are hateful.
As journalist Nicole-Hannah Jones noted, this reflects a lack of diversity in newsrooms and polling. They missed the diversity and conservatism of the Latino vote, they aren’t talking to enough working class and rural folks. These pollsters and forecasters are disappointing and annoying, but they reflect out lack of diversity and bringing in different people and communities. They missed out so many people and key their own biases shape the numbers.
When all the votes are counted, I think the results will land pretty close to 538s (Nate Silver’s website) projection. They definitely got the margins wrong on FL and OH, but both were higher uncertainly states that could go either way. They also talked about the “red mirage” likely to happen on election night, which did happen, though things are swinging back blue now. There also seems to be a misunderstanding about what his forecast said last year – it said there was a 30% chance that Trunp would win and he did. It wasn’t the most likely outcome, but it wasn’t unlikely either. They’re getting it more right than wrong, and are transparent about how much uncertainty there is in the forecast.
I don’t get why people are mad at Silver. In 2016 and now he was one of the few pollsters taking about how Trump had/has some solid paths to victory and saying that polling might not be picking up some of his supporters.
A lot of other pollsters went around saying it was all but over and Clinton and Biden had it in the bag, but Silver has always been out there saying that whatever the polling is showing at a specific moment, don’t discount Trump’s chances.
A LOT of people this year, especially, have been talking about Trump’s non-zero chances.
Love Kornacki.
Also – really the only thing I learned taking AP Statistics in high school is that you can manipulate data, get polls to say what you want, and that people friggin lie. Are pollsters only relying on people answering landlines? So many phone calls but always for a warrant against my name or to tell me that the police are on their way to arrest me – never a pollster! Also, who actually answers their phones for unknown numbers anyways?