The Writers Guild of America (WGA, the writers) has been on strike since early May when talks with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP, the networks, studios and streamers) hit a stalemate. Three key issues at stake are wages, protections against AI and an overdue reckoning on streaming residuals. Regarding residuals, the status quo has been that writers receive residual payments whenever a show or film is licensed. In the era of streaming, however, giants like Netflix and Amazon Prime have not been licensing their (massively popular) content, at least not on a comparable scale. Quelle surprise, the big guys don’t want to make changes for a (more) equitable system.
The unfair dynamics stacked against the writers are the same for directors (DGA) and actors (SAG), both of which have June deadlines to reach their own deals with AMPTP, and the big question was could there be a triple-guild strike that would be a real show of power against AMPTP. Well, those hopes were dashed when the DGA struck a deal rather quickly in early June. Now all eyes turn to SAG to see if they reach a deal by the end of the month, or move to strike with the WGA. Methinks the studios are behind this doom and gloom reporting on what would happen to summer movies if SAG were to go on strike:
What happens if SAG doesn’t reach a deal by June 30: If that date comes and goes without a new deal in place, then union members (which include every movie star you can name) could hit the picket lines. That means they will not be available nor willing to promote their latest films. Already, the Writers Guild of America strike has caused promotional headaches for TV and streaming shows looking to launch Emmy campaigns. It’s also created dilemmas for publicists hoping to score press for writer clients with movies opening in theaters or debuting at Cannes or Tribeca.
Barbie in the crosshairs: The life cycle of a movie marketing campaign can vary, but in the case of most summer tentpoles the hype can start as early as two years prior to release, sources said–think first-look posters and teaser trailers. About four to six months before opening weekend, studios will engage long-lead publications for splashy cover stories, as Warner Bros. did recently for Ryan Gosling (GQ Style) and Margot Robbie (Vogue) in support of “Barbie.” That film is also set to junket on July 7-8, putting it in the strike’s crosshairs. Some interviews are being completed pre-strike deadline for a later rollout, according to one individual familiar with cast schedules.
You simply MUST have a red carpet: “Your last month is all about moving the needle,” added another veteran film marketer. This includes global photo calls with cast, domestic and international talk show appearance, multi-city red carpet premieres and weekly magazine covers. One studio executive said that, thanks to the writers strike, the major late-night shows are dark, and therefore aren’t an option at the moment. But, “not having a big red carpet the week the movie premieres? That will absolutely hurt.”
This is asinine: The executive, like many of those on the side of the studios and producers in the current guild faceoffs, is baffled by the idea of a work stoppage. “The union is fighting for wages. A strike is going to hurt box office grosses, which affects actors’ compensation. If I were someone like Margot Robbie, as a producer and star of ‘Barbie,’ I wouldn’t be happy,” they said. One publicist was already bracing for a summer without booking in-depth profiles in magazines or appearances on morning TV shows. “I guess I’m going to be pitching press on a lot of documentaries,” they said.
“The union is fighting for wages. A strike is going to hurt box office grosses, which affects actor’s compensation.” Which is why you should never ask for a raise, ever! Give me a break. In case it isn’t obvious by now, I, like our president, am pro-union and would love for the actors to stand with their writers (as they already have been). Barbie and Oppenheimer both have scheduled press junket and release dates in July, so if SAG does strike there’s the concern that the stars won’t cross the picket line to promote the films. Perhaps I’m being too Pollyanna, but I think the interest in these films is great enough that people would either a) go to see them even if they didn’t catch Cillian Murphy on the Tonight Show beforehand, or b) wait until post-strike to see them. Red (pink?) carpet or not, people are GOING to see Barbie!
Last thought: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (the title just rolls off the tongue) is facing less of a conflict because its press junket will be completed in June. Did Xenu orchestrate all this to give Tom Cruise his frickin’ IMAX screens?
I can’t think of a time I ever decided to see a movie based on celebrity interviews. It usually the trailer or if there is social media buzz. Maybe a YouTube reaction channel review.
Who goes to see a movie because of the red carpet? Please.
While I get that the interviews and press tour can help people be aware that the movie is coming (or out) there are other ways to do that and in these days of global media, Margot Robbie doing press in Tokyo doesn’t impact my movie watching schedule here in the UK.
This really shows how terrified the old machine of Hollywood is to succumb to an entirely different studio structure (that would surely lose about 3 levels of middle management their jobs!) if big releases could be successful without the international dog and pony show.
I hope the writers and actors strike continues and that Barbie and Oppenheimer prove that the social media era is a different age entirely and that the masses can engage with a product on our own terms without being spoon fed via strictly managed PR profiles and appearances.
I, for one, disagree. I finally secured a Literary Manager, after years of trying to break into Hollywood! And I can’t option or sell any of my feature screenplays until all of this is over! (I have 3!) I truly do hope SAG & WGA get what they want (but quickly lol).
And for your point on big releases being successful without the dog/pony show? Actors love promoting themselves when given the chance. AND the studios will always make up a reason, for instance- it would have done XX% better and we would have made $X million dollars more IF we had been able to have everyone involved promote it. Trust me… The big machine isn’t going away.
It’s always interesting to see how Producer/Actors handle strikes. I can see Margot standing by the Union and not promoting it if a strike happens. Tommy on the other hand would drive right over a picket line if he had to.
The red carpets and blanket advertising are about egos, not box office. The super fancy red carpets are new. Pre-internet, it used to just be an industry thing. Movies started advertising big on TV in the 90s. The Thursday night shows on NBC, Friends, Seinfeld, etc. always had ads for the films opening Friday. Very pricy ads. And that was a new thing! Someone did a study which showed that Hollywood went from spending almost zero on TV ads to spending hundreds of millions and the overall box office remained the same. The issue was that if a star or producer saw an ad on TV for a rival film and not theirs, they complained. So lots of money was spent on ads.
That’s right. In the Time Before Cable TV, if you wanted to know what was coming to a theatre near you, you needed to see the Come Soon trailer while sitting in a movie theatre.
The Barbie movie won’t be adversely affected. Margot Robbie’s on several magazine covers at the moment, and the trailers and teasers posted to YouTube have been circulating for months. Even my 80 year old mother knows about (and wants to see) this movie … and she hasn’t been in a movie theatre since the late 1980s.
Barbie and Oppenheimer are going to do just fine even if actors are striking. And the DGA deal isn’t set in stone, it’s still being voted on and a number of members have very publicly voted No and are encouraging others to as well. We might yet get the triple guild strike.