While I was stunned by Prince Andrew’s arrest, it was because I thought that the monarchy would continue to do what they could to shield Andrew, and by shielding Andrew, they would be shielding themselves. That’s what got blown up with Andrew’s arrest – it’s not just that Andrew, Sarah Ferguson and their daughters all look incredibly vulnerable to criminal prosecution, it’s that the arrest has detonated a bomb within the whole royal system, and ALL of them are involved. It says something that the monarchy could no longer shield Andrew – about their diminished power post-QEII, and about how they have no idea how to handle *any* of this when they’re not in control. Well, Roya Nikkhah at the Times got a big briefing from at least two royal courts. One big takeaway: while they know they can’t blame QEII for everything, they’re blaming her for a lot of their current predicament. Highlights:

Dark days for King Charles: “This is his moment in the twilight sun and it’s an awful situation.” The King’s statement, issued four hours after Andrew’s 8am arrest at Wood Farm, Sandringham, on his 66th birthday, was his coldest yet. No mention of a “brother”, just “deepest concern” for “the news about Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor”. The killer line — “Let me state clearly: the law must take its course” — will have left Andrew, despite his denials of all wrongdoing, in no doubt that he has been royally hung out to dry. There is relief in some royal circles that “the Andrew problem” has been effectively taken out of the Palace’s hands by the police. But with an investigation under way that could result in the first criminal trial of a senior royal for a serious offence in modern history, it has lost what it so highly prizes: control.

A dangerous moment for the monarchy: As one who knows the King and his court well says: “The story will run for months on end, maybe years, and the royals have no idea what will play out with further documents or evidence [requested] from Andrew’s personal protection officers and royal officials.” As one former aide says: “The real problem for the Palace is they can’t get ahead of it.”

A close friend of William speaks about the crisis. “The time of grace has passed for the royal family,” the friend says. “There are a hell of a lot of questions that have been spawned. As distasteful as some of those questions are, they should be being war-gamed so they’re not playing catch up. They need to be proactive about getting the dirty washing out and making sure they’re the ones who get it out, not others. Really bold moves are what is needed now.”

It was all Queen Elizabeth II’s fault: A former courtier says: “Andrew was an idiot with bad judgment. When we travelled overseas and met staff at embassies and high commissions [where he’d been], you’d be left with the impression he was a pain in the arse, pompous and unpleasant wherever he went, a clumsy buffoon. But the feeling was the late Queen was beyond reproach, so at the Palace no one ever took Andrew to task because of her opinion of him. You just left it alone because she was so fond of him. So the question may end up being: what’s a cover-up and what was just left alone because of the Queen? Questions were never asked. Things were never probed.”

Andrew’s settlement to Virginia Giuffre: Those close to the King recently confirmed he did not contribute to the settlement, in which Andrew admitted no liability. The settlement briefly kept a lid on the matter during Elizabeth’s Platinum Jubilee celebrations, but how will history judge the decision by a monarch to protect her son in such a way? A source who was close to the Queen says: “Andrew had his own legal advice, which the Palace was made aware of. There was a feeling of ‘your idiotic Newsnight interview has knocked a domino over that is causing chaos for you and this [the settlement] might be one way to stop it. You cannot be chased by lawyers everywhere you go, you can’t be barricaded in Balmoral hiding behind your mother’s tartan.’ It was presented as the best of some terrible options.”

What did QEII know? Those close to the royal family have described the dutiful Elizabeth’s dereliction of duty in curbing Andrew as leaving an “unexploded bomb” for Charles to defuse. No one in royal circles believes the late Queen knew anything even close to the full extent of what is now alleged but equally no one disputes that she turned a blind eye. A royal source says: “It wouldn’t surprise me if the Queen just said she didn’t want to hear disobliging things about Andrew and used her red boxes as a shield. But her popularity will protect the monarchy to some extent and Charles will get a lot of public sympathy, which will bolster the monarchy’s position.”

How insiders believe Charles & William can get through this: Those close to the family also believe that “Charles and William’s genuine horror of the situation” enables the public to “make a distinction” between Andrew and the rest of the pack. “There is ethical insulation from Andrew with his brother and nephew, and that’s a thick layer of insulation,” says a friend of the royals. “But it heaps huge pressure on the institution to understand that, in the future, a different sort of monarchy is needed and meaningful change under the next reign.”

Charles’s planned trip to the US in April: Aides acknowledge the trips will require extra “due diligence”. A royal source says: “The trip to the US is a real problem — they will have to risk-assess every step of the way to think about what might go wrong. “They can’t cancel it, that would look terrible. But all it takes is for Trump to start riffing about Andrew, or an opportunity-seeking congressman or woman, and it all becomes highly embarrassing and overshadowing of what the mission is.”

[From The Times]

This, from William’s friend: “As distasteful as some of those questions are, they should be being war-gamed so they’re not playing catch up.” Big-boy Willy is going to war-game, you guys! I think William’s version of “war-gaming” is “sending his aides to meet with Charles’s aides and they’ll come up with a list of things to do, and someone will have to read it to illiterate William.” My point? “War-gaming” is tough talk from someone who went on vacation during one of the biggest crises of his lifetime.

As for the blame-game stuff about QEII… the thing is, she was in charge that whole time and she continuously covered up for her favorite son. A huge chunk of this is legitimately QEII’s fault. Now, that being said, Charles knew a lot and he doesn’t have plausible deniability about most of this. In fact, in 2022, Charles used his brother’s settlement with Virginia as a bargaining chip to get something he really wanted (QEII signing off on “Queen Consort Camilla”).

Photos courtesy of Avalon Red, Cover Images, Instar. Cover courtesy of The Sun.