King Charles and Camilla’s Caribbean Tour was a total flop. It was so bad, there’s a conspiratorial silence within the British media about the flop tour. It would not surprise me at all if Buckingham Palace gave guidance to the press to simply act like Charles and Camilla got through the tour and there’s nothing to say about it, good or bad. If anything, I think Camilla’s increasingly odd and rude behavior gave Charles cover for how badly the tour went politically. The whole point of this flop tour was for Charles to deliver a speech at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, because Charles is the head of the Commonwealth. It is widely known that Charles will be the last monarch in the role, and that eventual Scooter King William will not spend any time or effort on the Commonwealth. Well, Vanity Fair had an interesting interview with historian and constitutionalist Ed Owens about Prince William and the future of the Commonwealth.

William’s disinterest in the Commonwealth: “Prince William hinted after his difficult 2022 tour of Belize, the Bahamas, and Jamaica that he wasn’t focused on following his father as head of the Commonwealth. A couple of weeks ago The Times of London confirmed that the prince’s position was unchanged on this issue. Crucially, the position of head of the Commonwealth is not hereditary. King Charles got the role because his mother and predecessor, Queen Elizabeth II, actively lobbied Commonwealth heads of state to ensure that the role would pass to him when he became monarch, following her death. But it will not automatically transfer to William when Charles dies.

Owens says the Commonwealth has felt morally directionless in recent years: “William’s reluctance to take on the mantle of Head of the Commonwealth isn’t that surprising: He and his advisers want to future-proof his reign. One way to do this is to identify potential problems in order to avoid them. The Commonwealth is one such potential problem, and William seems to have calculated that the headship of this organization likely represents more trouble than it is worth.

What happens after Charles dies: “I absolutely think [the] Commonwealth nations will look to replace the British monarch with a new figurehead. My sense is that many nations would already prefer to have a different kind of figurehead, for example a head who belongs to one of the 56 member states and is elected by member states for a set term. Alternatively, there could be some kind of “rolling” headship, whereby every member nation is invited to elect an official who will take a 12-month turn as head of the Commonwealth. Whether or not the Commonwealth will continue is more difficult to say. Certainly one of the reasons it has survived until now is because of the energy and engagement of two British monarchs—Charles and Elizabeth II—who have viewed it as a potential force for good in the world. Without its connection to the British monarchy, it may lose what is left of its momentum.

What would QEII make of all of this? “I think she would probably be relatively relaxed, recognizing that times change and institutions have to evolve. Let’s not forget that as queen she oversaw many key alterations in the way both the monarchy and Commonwealth functioned through her long reign, as was required by shifts in politics, economics, culture, and social norms. While the Commonwealth was of emotional importance to her—not least for the way it connected her back to her father and predecessors—by the end of her reign it was already a shadow of what it once had been and she would have known that it was likely to continue on a trajectory of decline. William has decided that given the challenges and changes of the mid-20th century the monarchy and royal family’s future is likely to be stronger without the post-imperial baggage of the Commonwealth. I think his grandmother would have respected the way he is putting the family firm first in this instance.

[From Vanity Fair]

They continue to twist QEII’s very real record on issues to suit their own purposes. QEII loved the Commonwealth, and she believed the Commonwealth was more important than the UK’s association with Europe. That’s why she was quietly pro-Brexit – she thought Britain’s priority should be commonwealth ties, not ties to Britain’s European neighbors. If anything, it feels like William’s reign will represent something else entirely: an isolationist monarchy, where the crown is only focused on the UK and not Europe OR the Commonwealth.

As for William “and his advisers want to future-proof his reign” – William and Kate’s 2022 Flop Tour really shook them to their core, but they learned the wrong lessons from it. They basically decided that if Commonwealth countries didn’t want them to dress up in neocolonialist cosplay, then they were going to take their colonizer toys home and never come back. Which isn’t really some high-minded geopolitical strategy as much as a temper tantrum.

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