Oscar predictions: who will win this years Oscars versus who *should* win


EE British Academy Film Awards (Baftas)

The 2019 Oscars are on Sunday, even though it feels like we’ve spent the past two weeks talking about everything other than the Oscars. This whole awards season has felt “off,” and I’m not going to go on and on about it, suffice to say that big changes should absolutely be made. Anyway, do you guys want to fight about who will win the actual Oscars? Let’s do this… my Oscar predictions, and you can see this year’s nominations list here.

Best Picture
What Will Win: Roma
What Should Win: Black Panther
I think Roma is important and artsy. But Black Panther was important, artsy, good, relevant and one of the biggest pop culture phenomenons in a decade.

Best Director
Who Will Win:
Alfonso Cuarón
Who Should Win: Spike Lee
Come on, Spike Lee should absolutely win this.

Best Actor
Who Will Win:
Rami Malek
Who Should Win: Christian Bale
Even though Rami has run one of the best Oscar campaigns I’ve ever seen, I still don’t want him to win. It’s just too much, and his words about Bryan Singer left me cold.

Best Actress
Who Will Win:
Glenn Close
Who Should Win: Glenn, or maybe Olivia Colman
I mean, I think Glenn will win and should win. But Olivia Colman was brilliant too.

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win:
Mahershala Ali
Who Should Win: Richard E. Grant
I’ve said many times that I’m fine with Mahershala being the one body they pull out of the car crash that is Green Book. But if they wanted to go with someone deserving, talented and fun, go with Richard.

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win:
Regina King
Who Should Win: Eh, probably Regina King.
I mean, I loved both Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone in The Favourite and I thought they did an amazing job. But I’m also fine with Regina King winning.

Best Song:
Who Will Win:
“Shallow”
Who Should Win: “All the Stars” but I can make the case for “Shallow” too.
Yeah, I’m fine with “Shallow” winning. The possible shock here might be the Mary Poppins Returns song, so keep your eye out for that.

star is born

Clara Lionel Foundations Diamond Ball

Clara Lionel Foundations Diamond Ball

blackpanther

Photos courtesy of WENN & IMDB.

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57 Responses to “Oscar predictions: who will win this years Oscars versus who *should* win”

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  1. Lucy says:

    I would love it if All The Stars won.

    • Fiona says:

      I would love to see Gaga’s face if the song won!!! I’m really rooting for it, I’m tired of Gaga, her whole routine this season and her overhyped movie.

      If Regina doesn’t win, I hope Amy Adams finally gets the Oscar that she deserves after so many years!

  2. Becks1 says:

    I agree that it will be Cuaron for best director, but I also think that there is enough chatter about how Spike Lee “should” win that he might end up with the statue at the end of the night.

    We are trying to catch up on the best picture nominees but I think we wont make it through all of them before Sunday night; so far my favorite has been Black Panther with Blackkklansman a close second.

    I liked Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody, but I think the whole movie was just okay. But I think he’ll get the win as the “nod” to the movie, same way Ali will get the win for the nod to Green Book.

    • Becks1 says:

      Also because of your comments on it Kaiser I have zero desire to ever see Green Book lol.

    • Kaiser says:

      I would love it if Spike ended up being the big “surprise” win of the night. That would be amazing.

    • Lightpurple says:

      Blackkklansman is up for Adapted Screenplay too so Spike might get his Oscar there.

      • Truthie says:

        From your lips to God’s ears! I think Blackkklansman should win more than just screenplay, and not because “it’s about time.” It’s a powerful movie. I’m still trying to slog through Roma, it is sooo boring. Too bad Netflix has spent gazillions on its Oscar campaign.

  3. jan90067 says:

    I think I have to be one of a handful of people that don’t get the hype around “Roma”. It had some lovely cinematic shots, but damn, it was long, slow, and BORING. The opening credits were so slow and long, I thought I had hit the wrong button on the DVD player and was watching the closing credits! My vote for Best Movie didn’t even make it: “The Hate You Give”. That was an awesome movie. Black Panther was really, really good, too. I was surprised how much I enjoyed it (considering I really don’t like the comic book movies).

    I really hope “Shallows” doesn’t get it. I can’t stomach another crying fest by Gaga. I would love for “All the Stars” or “I’ll Fight” to take it.

    Spike, for sure. While I really enjoyed Olivia’s performance, Glenn Close was AWESOME, and she has been overlooked, like Amy Adams, for far too long. She is DUE! I would LOVE for Richard E. Grant to win: again, overlooked for far too long. Christian Bale was *very* good, but this is his “shtick” already. William DaFoe didn’t get much traction, but damn, he was great!

    Anyway… just my 2¢ 😊

    • paranormalgirl says:

      Agree on Willem Dafoe. Completely amazing.

    • Cay says:

      I loved “The Hate You Give.” I also loved this year but got little or no love from the Academy “The Rider,” “Eighth Grade,” “The Death of Stalin,” “Paddington 2,” “Won’t You Be My Neighbor,” and “Sorry to Bother You.”

      • Jerusha says:

        Agree on all of those(haven’t seen Death of Stalin yet).

      • jan90067 says:

        OMG I just watched “Won’t You Be My Neighbor” yesterday (it’s been sitting in the DVR forever), and I cried through most of it. Fred Rogers is everything. WE NEED MR. ROGERS NOW, FOR US ADULTS!

        Eighth Grade / Elsie Fisher… so overlooked. Death of Stalin, same… I thought it was great. Paddington…love both Hughs!

  4. ravynrobyn says:

    My fangirl heart is 💔💔💔, no noms for Steve Carell…BUT if Richard E Grant won, his wonderful and amazing speech would help my cold black heart start to heal 💜💚

  5. broodytrudy says:

    Roma was a gorgeous movie and 100% deserves the win, full stop.

    I would love to see Rachel Weisz win. She is such a lovely actress. Regina King probably deserves it more, but i really have a feeling Emma Stone might take it. Hollywood loves her.

    I think Shallow is a cringe inducing song, there’s no depth (pun intended), but I’ve found that’s the way this category tends to go. I would like to see Kendrick win. I wish there were better songs every year in Hollywood movies, but i don’t think it’s a Hollywood problem as much as a music industry issue. The people out there making real art are consistently snubbed by the mainstream music tastes.

  6. line says:

    I hope that Spike Lee, Regina King, Mahershala Ali and Christian Bale will win

  7. maria s says:

    I’m for The Favourite and Olivia Colman to win. But I’m hoping Spike Lee will get best director. I also feel a little iffy about Rami Malek winning best actor. Not because he doesn’t deserve it, it’s just the general feeling about Bohemian Rhapsody. I think it could well go to Christian Bale.

  8. Veronica S. says:

    Eh, don’t think Blank Panther deserves a Best Picture award, personally. I thought it was a step well above most Marvel films, but it wasn’t *that* good and is mainly sustained by a very talented group of actors. Which is fine, and I’d still put it above Roma for that reason because it’s contributing a meaningful social dialogue, but if I had a choice, I’d have Spike Lee to sweep both major categories.

    Totally agree about the let down of Rami Malek winning. There is something so infuriating to me as a bisexual woman knowing that somebody is getting rewarded for how poorly they treated Freddie’s legacy. He deserved better.

    • BabyJane says:

      BP was entirely formulaic. The acting among supporting cast was abominable. Let’s not turn this money-grab into something it isn’t. Finally, a superhero vehicle for non-Nordic people, yes, awesome. A “film” of “best picture” quality? Laughable.

    • Grant says:

      I totally agree. I actually went and re-watched BP because I didn’t totally get all the hype and I enjoyed it less the second time around. I definitely don’t think it deserves Best Picture, that’s for sure.

    • JinnyBye says:

      Agreed. I really liked Black Panther, but it has a lot of issues. The lead actors carried it through some rather painful dialogue and bad pacing. It’s being treated like it’s a step up from other Marvel films, but I don’t see that. It’s just a bit more on the serious side, but it’s not better made than Winter Soldier, Ragnorak or the first Guardians.

      In a year with a few near flawless pieces of cinema, Black Panther (or Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody or Green Book) winning would be disappointing.

      • Veronica S. says:

        If I had to, I’d vote Winter Soldier as the best of the Marvel films thus far. It’s got the same eye for sociopolitical commentary as Black Panther without the pacing issues that weighed down the latter for me. The step up it receives is from having an almost exclusively non-white cast, which is a powerful statement on its own. Michael B. Jordan’s performance and chemistry with Chadwick Boseman is what really drives the power of the film, but that’s enough for me to embrace it as the best piece of cinema of the year.

  9. line says:

    No I do not hope Emma Stone will win. The academy must stop giving oscars to actresses because were are cute in the movies, there is nothing extraordinary in the performance Emma Stone. It is Emma Stone who plays to be Emma Stone.

  10. Jerusha says:

    Give the Oscar to Spike, he’s been ignored for far too long. Best Supporting Actor is not even nominated Michael B. Jordan. But if Richard E. Grant wins I wish Barbra Streisand would hand him the award. I’m in the middle of watching ASIB and I really hate that song. Not very impressed with the movie either.
    I’d love to see BP win BP. BlacKKKlansman would be fine too.
    Did anyone else see the “trailer” for Seth Meyers movie White Savior? It explains why I don’t go to movies like The Blind Side, etc.
    https://youtu.be/T_RTnuJvg6U

  11. Eleonor says:

    Glenn Close must have her freaking Oscar.

  12. minx says:

    Agree about Black Panther and Richard Grant, love both. I think Rami does deserve the win over Bale. Late last year everyone was talking about Bale and Cooper winning and then Malek just blew past them. I had never watched Mr. Robot so I didn’t really know who he was.

  13. Original Jenns says:

    I’m happy if Roma or Black Panther wins. I think that Black Panther was a huge cultural move, it was awesome the Academy nominated it, and I hope it continues to dominate and create a new future. But so was Roma, even though it was more “arty”. I loved see an indigenous Mexican star in a film about real/reel life playing in America. To have a film shining a spotlight on Mexicans at this time is just as important.

  14. Cindy says:

    Emma Stone was so out of her league in The Favourite. I do like her, but ever since she became an Academy darling I’ve found her so overrated. She’s not that good to have so many noms and even a win at her age. Same with Jennifer Lawrence, except Emma has never impressed me with a dramatic role like Jen has.

    I’m pulling for anyone but Malek and Bale to win Best Actor. I know it’s impossible, but yeah… I’m completely over Rami, Singer’s movies don’t need to be awarded anything, and he was not that good anyway. As for Christian Bale… I like him, but I find all of his “transformations” to be so gimmicky. And I didn’t think he was that good in Vice anyway… Once you get over the fact this is a handsome british Batman playing a fat and ugly republican his performance wasn’t particularly great.

  15. Sparker says:

    How’s everyone saying Spike but they’re all to scared to watch the movie? That’s BS.

    • Jerusha says:

      Where in the world did you get that? I saw it the first week it was released. USA gross alone is approximately $49 million on a budget of $15 million. Doing quite well I would say.

    • Lightpurple says:

      I have seen it in the theaters twice. It is my favorite movie of the year.

  16. zee says:

    What about Black Panther is so out standing that it deserves the best picture award? Cultural impact doesn’t equal quality and if it had an all white cast nobody would pretend that Black Panther was anything more than your regular fun but formulaic Marvel movie with a pretty thin story line and it wouldn’t have been nominated. If Academy voters want to pretend to be woke they have better options than voting for BP.

    • Grant says:

      Agreed!

    • Deering says:

      “Cultural impact doesn’t equal quality.”

      Gee, does that hold true for TITANIC, IN THE HEAT OF THE NIGHT, CASABLANCA, GENTLEMAN’S AGREEMENT, THE BEST YEARS OF OUR LIVES, THE SOUND OF MUSIC, THE GODFATHER, or SILENCE OF THE LAMBS, among others? Cultural impact is a major reason movies win Oscars.

      “…if it had an all-white cast…”

      But it _didn’t,_ sweetheart. In fact, BP is from stem to stern a story rooted in the African-American experience. And the reason it is so much more than Marvel formula is because it addresses issues that still are at the heart of being black in America. Confronting the world vs. retreating from it; the greater good vs. individual lives; the line between “any means neccessary” and destruction feeding on destruction. Honestly, if Christopher Nolan had done this flick (and his Batman trilogy covered all these exact same issues), he’d be hailed from the rafters. But because it is about black folks, it’s points are not seen—and it’s dismissed as “Oh, it’s up for an Oscar just cause it’s all-black.” And the fact it shattered boxoffice history and expectations is dismissed as “Oh, it’s just typical comic-book blockbuster bait.”

    • Veronica S. says:

      I wouldn’t call it “typical” among Marvel films because it does tackle some very serious sociopolitical issues. Cultural relevance is definitely something to consider, it’s just not the whole of it. My biggest issue with Black Panther was pacing and structure, but I thought the performances turned in by the leads were excellent, and it was emotionally moving. The reason I don’t think it deserves Best Picture is that BlacKkKlansmen deals with several of the same relevant social issues and packages it in a better made movie overall. Which shouldn’t surprise anyone because it’s Spike Lee, and he’s been churning out quality material for ages without the recognition he deserves.

  17. horseandhound says:

    viggo should win. he did a role he never did before, he never did anything like it. it’s so far from him and all he’s ever done and it’s just brilliant acting. I’d be okay with christian bale too. rami is okay, but not that good. and olivia should win. although I love glenn.

    • Div says:

      I love Glenn, but I do not understand how she is winning over Olivia unless it is more of a “career” Oscar.

      • horseandhound says:

        I think you’re right. and that’s the problem with the oscars. they don’t give the oscar to a person when they deserve it and then they give it to them when they don’t and consequently wrong somebody else.

  18. Div says:

    I love Richard E. Grant and I think he deserves the award, but it annoys me that if any woman acted his way they would be dragged as thirsty by the Oscar pundits…but he is seen as charming.

    Spike and Blackkklansman deserve best director/best film.

    I’d prefer All the Stars, but Shallow winning is fine. And while Lady Gaga’s weepy Anne hathaway type speeches are annoying, it’s harmless and I’m far more bothered by Rami’s habit of evoking Freddie Mercury’s ghost. She’s also not campaigning much as she has been in Vegas, but she is still over exposed and needs to go away for a while after she wins.

    Speaking of Rami, he’s somehow managed to go to every Oscar event, evoke Freddie Mercury whenever someone questions him about the controversies in his film, and still escape being called thirsty or dragged by everyone except here and film twitter. Willem Defoe deserves best actor, followed by Bale and Cooper imo.

    And Cooper is kind of interesting. I’m not surprised ASIB lost steam even tho it was hyped to win, simply because it’s not the best film of the bunch, it peaked too early, it was a remake, and the third act was weak. Nearly every year there is a film that has buzz, but ends up not taking home awards so this is nothing new. What I find interesting is that while most assign ASIB not winning to those factors, a recent Vulture piece published this morning and others have also mentioned/insinuated that BCoop has managed to offend or annoy both the director’s and actor’s branch and that may have been a lesser factor. The Oscar voters can themselves be very petty and easily offended as shown by those anonymous ballots, but it sounds like his personality can also be a serious issue/grating…even more so as it got way more ink than any potential issues with Gaga. And even less mentioned, although I assumed it would possibly be more of a factor, is that Gaga needs to “stay in her pop star lane/her extra pop star personality” prevents some from taking her seriously.

    But tbh, I’m tired of Oscar season this year and how it is still down to campaigning, etc. and the lack of attention paid to women and POC. I hoped with Weinstein gone it may be better, but nope. Can You Ever Forgive Me? and If Beale Street Could Talk were both robbed of a best picture nomination, as were the directors.

    • Spicecake38 says:

      Just watched Can you ever forgive me last night.I thought it was terrific and Melissa McCarthy should at least be highly considered for best actress,but I think Glen Close will win that category.This movie has really been under the radar so to speak I had no idea it would be so good ,but then again I have not paid much attention to movies this year so…

    • Bella Bella says:

      Leave No Trace — great movie. There were so many great movies made by women this year. I went on a personal binge to watch a bunch of them. And then I go to Rotten Tomatoes and I see that probably 90% of the critics are male, and you wonder why movies by women get no traction out there.

  19. Franklin says:

    The Mary poppins song was so good and brought tears to my eyes while watching it with my son. I would love if that won.

  20. Dizzy says:

    If Richard E Grant wins I will definitely cry. I love him and have for a long long time. Who else remembers him Warlock? He is always saying that he’s ugly but he’s gorgeous to me.

    • jan90067 says:

      Jack and Sarah is one of my favs. And Withnail and I. Richard E Grant has *always* been underrated and overlooked because he makes it all seem so easy.

  21. Anna says:

    All I want is for Regina King to win and also for Ruth Carter to *finally* get an Oscar for her costume design. Black Panther was beyond all imagining when it came to costumes and the unbelievable research she put into creating those hundreds (thousands?) of costumes, also on a time crunch. Plus she’s been 30 years in the business, designing some of the most iconic films ever, many for Spike Lee, but a wide range. She is a genius and must get her due. Please, let there be some justice.

  22. Deering says:

    “But Black Panther was important, artsy, good, relevant and one of the biggest pop culture phenomenons in a decade.”

    Damn straight.

  23. Nievie says:

    I feel like Glen deserves to win- not only for the wife, just for her general repertoire of films. Olivia has only just hit the big time and I think she will be in more Oscar worthy roles and definitely get one at some point, if not this time around. I think Olivia is going to be the next Helen Mirren.

  24. Felicia says:

    I haven’t seen any of these films and so have no opinion.

    However, after blinds indicating that no one wanted to dress Lauren Sanchez when she went to the Oscars as Bezos’ date, the PI investigation about who leaked what to who, the lack of sightings of the two of them together, and the occasional but insistent gossip item about how they are “meeting secretly” (why start now?), I’m looking forward to seeing if he attends and if so, with who?

    I think Sanchez is toast personally.

  25. Becks1 says:

    Okay, so I watched the Favourite last night. Meh. I was extremely disappointed after all the hype. Basically I feel like if you know the basic plot points, you know the entire plot. And it wasn’t near as funny/witty as I had expected. Each scene was well done, the costumes were gorgeous, and the acting was very good – I just felt like it fell flat. I also thought it was way too long.

  26. Big Bertha says:

    I get so sick of people trashing Roma because they simply do not understand or do not care to learn about its historical significance for Mexico. If you do not understand, you do not get to diminish a work of art by describing as “important and artsy” without even explaining why. It is a lazy and uninformed opinion.

  27. Patty says:

    I know it hasn’t happened in forever but I want Glenn Close and Olivia Colman to tie for Best Actress. I legit think both deserve it. Those were the top two female performances of the year in my opinion. Followed by Melissa McCarthy, Viola Davis, and Rosamund Pike. Those five should have been the Best Actress nominees.

    As much as I love Black Panther, it really should not win Best Picture, because quite frankly it wasn’t the Best Picture of 2018. Off the top of my head I can think of least five others that were way better than BP. Sadly, most of them were robbed of nominations; at this point the only movies I would be okay with winning BP are Roma and Black Kkklansman.

    But I guess I’ll find out Monday because it’s a hard pass for me on this year’s show.