I wrote the earlier “this is where the election race is now” stories at like 4 am when I was completely freaked out and going on only a few hours’ sleep. In retrospect (can one have retrospect about something that happened four hours ago?), I really admire the fact that Joe Biden wasn’t freaking out in his early morning speech. He kept it pithy and optimistic and his people on the ground must have been telling him how it was going.
So, what’s changed in the race in the past four hours? Votes – mostly mail-in ballots – are still being counted in all of the swing states, like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Ohio is dead – they went solidly for Trump. Nevada, Wisconsin and Arizona all have Biden ahead, and the votes left to count in those states are assumed to be from Democratic stronghold precincts. It’s more than possible that Biden will end up winning Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes. It’s more than possible that Biden will end up winning Nevada by about 10,000 votes. Arizona looks like it’s the one, out of those three, which has Biden winning by a larger margin. We’ll call it McCain’s Revenge.
Right now we’re looking hard at Pennsylvania and Michigan and the votes left to count in those two states. It seems like the areas which are the slowest to count ballots are mostly (if not all) Dem strongholds, especially in Michigan. In Pennsylvania, there are still 1.4 million absentee ballots left to be counted. And remember, everyone is assuming that absentee ballots heavily favor Biden. So… Biden’s path to victory would be Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan? I’m completely fine with that.
Based on my replies, I don't think people have fully internalized how Democratic these mail and absentee ballots will be in MI/PA/WI. It's going to be close, but these ballots will be overwhelmingly Democratic
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020
"Most of the remaining ballots that have not been counted are those mail-in absentee ballots, and we're getting some assurances that by tonight, we’ll have a full count here in Michigan," @JanetShamlian reports as close to 90% of votes in Michigan are in. https://t.co/tJnrjyfg3m pic.twitter.com/tVa7LuuBXC
— CBS News (@CBSNews) November 4, 2020
Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said that “hundreds of thousands” of absentee ballots remain to be tabulated, but the state should have a “much more complete picture” by the end of the day. https://t.co/LDyJQuZJNq #CNNElection pic.twitter.com/7bbJrmZkNY
— CNN Tonight (@CNNTonight) November 4, 2020
The Remaining Vote in Pennsylvania Appears to Be Overwhelmingly for Biden https://t.co/BIBGIVja4R
— Mark S. Getzfred (@marknyt) November 4, 2020
Photos courtesy of Avalon Red.
Yeah, PA has a million early ballots to count as of this morning. Most feel that will not favor Trump. That was always the reason for the threats from Trump
I still have hope, but this was far from the blowout I wanted. Having such a close race allows Trump to call into question the legitimacy of the results and that is terrifying.
It also forces us to reckon with that fact that a huge chunk of our population is fine with Trump and everything he stands for and all the destruction he has wrought.
That’s what bothers me the most. How TF can so many people support this hateful administration? Who are they? How can I avoid them at all costs?
I’m more inclined to think that they are hard core Republican and that is more important than how disgusting Trump is as long as they get what they want.
And that doesn’t surprise me.
What makes me hopeful is that millions of people who never voted before and were apathetic finally got off their asses to vote and finally realize that they need to be more engaged in their civic duty. And the youth not old enough to vote have woken up as well.
This is what has me upset.
I know. All the hate he spews if fine with them as long as their 401k is okay we keep the freeloaders from taking our money. All the leftover shit from Reagan
Yeah he’s pumping them up
I have to say +1 to all your comments.
The “reason” as I see it is a direct outcome of lack of education. People with no critical thinking skills. My point is there is a hell of a lot of dumb out there thanks to the GOP. What is working for them is keeping people as stupid as possible.
I am sickened!
THIS! More so than 45 calling into question the results, which he was always going to do… the sheer numbers Who voted for the moron.
Ohio! Lebron came home. Won a chip for you! Built a school for you. Implored you to vote wisely, and this is how you do? Tsk!
Black women are about to come through for America it seems, as always since the beginning of time, raising their babies and all… then we have white women.
I’ll just want to linking to this relevant tweet!
https://twitter.com/1Emory_/status/1323979311293075458
It’s outrageous that another democratic nominee will win the popular vote by millions (maybe close 5 or 6) and we have this grotesque system in place that disenfranchises states like California. Electoral college was set up by founder to help slave states. It needs to go.
Under normal circumstances, this would be encouraging. Now? I’m just worried that the treasonous GOP will do something to stop the votes from being counted.
The SC has ruled in the past that absentee ballots are legally protected. They are just as valid as any other ballot. Even if Trump tries to get them thrown out, precedent will not allow it. Everyone needs to remember that.
Now, we did not get the blue wave we wanted, and that is so upsetting. It really is. But don’t let Trump write his own narrative, as he tried to do when he declared victory while Biden was still ahead. If Democrats have the numbers, Biden can win. Trump has not won yet, and those absentee ballots will be counted. He thrives on people being misinformed and panicking.
Me too, Mina. I prayed really hard last night for a Biden win. Then, I took an Ambien and prayed for sleep. It worked. When I woke up, I showered, got dressed, made coffee, and then I looked at the news. So glad we’re not out of the race!
A Biden win in PA would be too good to be true.
I had plans of what I needed to do today; instead, I’ve spent the night, the morning and now the afternoon here just trawling for updates.
Not over till the fat lady sings.
I’m feeling more optimistic after mainlining coffee and watching Kornacki lol. He needs a nap. I need a nap. Long day for sure.
I just find it sad that with everything happening the previous 4 years (and this last year in particular), the results are so damn close. Even if Biden wins (keeping my fingers crossed), you guys have a longer way to go than I thought.
This is pretty much how I feel right now. I am hoping with all my heart that Biden wins but even then, it is clear quite how many Americans are actively racist/bigoted/xenophobic or indifferent enough on those topics to vote for someone who spews hate because ‘taxes’ or another issue they think he will favour them on. It makes me so sad.
Seems to be about right in terms of percentage of white and white-adjacent people in this country. Of course there are variances within demographics in terms of how people vote, but white supremacy and patriarchal misogyny have again mobilized in an attempt to keep their stronghold on this country. Not surprising but either way, I have to get out of here. It’s just become untenable to live in this country.
The sad fact is that was always true, it is just that tRump emboldened them and they are much louder than before. I’m still optimistic about the outcome but, yeah, so much closer than I’d like.
I worked at a company that would conduct employee surveys and education programs. One thing that I had to do was prepare the report to executives for one particular company we worked for. So I had to read the employee comments…
For 7 years this was the worst and most astonishing part of my job. I couldn’t believe the culturally insensitive and down right racist comments people would make in this survey. This was in a state that votes Blue for president every election! And this was when Obama was in office.
This is our country. And honestly, Europeans thinking that they are somehow beyond racism and all its bedfellows… sure Jan.
Racism doesn’t go away in four years just because it’s named as such. And it’s been emboldened in the US for four years. So take this as a call to action. We’ve all got work to do.
with the 2020 that we have been having i find it hard to be optimistic. We need a Christmas miracle in November!
When I saw that he had a lead in Wisconsin I just about jumped out of my skin in my excitement. Had to take a breath and remember how early it is here. But woohoo! Team Joe.
I am just shocked at how close it is and it makes me wonder what the outcome could have been had Covid 19 never existed. Last night I was feeling so depressed and upset at the idea of Cheeto winning and being stuck in the mask for the next four years with no hope in sight. Then Arizona happened. It was like a little light came in to the darkness because Arizona just doesn’t flip for anyone.
I am still keeping fingers crossed and I am still expecting Cheeto to pull some shenanigans (like he did last night declaring himself the winner when he was behind Biden) because he plays dirty that way.
I believe Trump would have won hands down without Covid.
I’m from Florida, and I think the huge Trump turnout we saw there was a vote against further lockdowns. In my early voting line almost no one was wearing a mask until they entered the polling building.
Agreed @cassandra and that’s what makes it even more frightening. I’m so glad that I live in a solidly blue state to at least have some semblance of safety but nothing is guaranteed.
At this moment in Georgia, Trump leads with 50.5% — but my county’s votes are still being counted, and it’s a very blue county in the Atlanta area. My fingers are crossed!
I can’t believe GA is in play so cool!
while I was doing my 7am math, still in bed, I wrote Georgia off. I hope you’re right! Detroit, Pittsburgh, Philly AND Atlanta still in play?!? Outstanding. Now to get through the counting without any GOP bullshit
According to WAPO right now, Biden needs 103,000 votes with 92% counted. Fingers crossed….
Fingers crossed! Holding onto hope that Lucy McBath’s reelection is a good sign.
Trump is very aware that mail in ballots are not his friend which is why he wants to poison the process. Literally bring the country to it’s knees to avoid losing and embarrassment. There needs to be investigations and charges for this treasonous administration. Top to bottom
My friends from Arizona are over the moon that after 24 years it has flipped blue. Arizona has voiced their choice with many important issues including the presidency. Biden wasn’t their choice and at one point they were talking about not voting or spoiling their vote but I’m so glad that they didn’t and instead chose to support whichever Democrat was picked to run for the presidency.
Omg, these results are not great!! Yikes. really though Biden had it comfortably but this is going down to the wire…and it looks like Trump so far?!! God, I lived in US when Gore was robbed by Jeb Bush, this is just…why, no, get smart people!!!!
Deep Breath, as long as the votes are counted and that’s not a guarantee at this point, Biden has a strong chance at WI, MI and PA still. NV is also 6 EC votes for Biden if it holds. Biden has received the most votes for President ever and they are still counting absentees
Thank you, @chicken tetrazzini!! Lol, I have a bit of hope but this is not close at all and
like others say, wth, Now the doors to many demagogues are much more open.
Gore lost to George Bush, not Jeb
Jeb Bush was in charge of Florida’s recount, I think, which is why saying Jeb Bush robbed Gore is correct.
Oh that makes sense. I thought Katherine Harris was in charge of stopping the recount but may be wrong.
Oh, sorry, I wasn’t clear ! I know it wasn’t Jeb Bush on the ticket against Gore, but I when I was young and it was my first in-person view of US elections and I just watched in shock, at that Jeb Bush controlled recount mess and how it was covered in US tv like entertainment, and it made me surprised about US democracy!! But it’s so long ago, but it just came back in my mind right now.
Anyway, @chicken t, you were right…hold strong until all the votes are counted – good vibes to all the celebitchies in US, giving us hope ❤️
MI,PA and WI also have Dem governors. Remember.!
Eh…stay nervous about Pennsylvania. I live there, and the rural enthusiasm for Trump was pretty intense here. I’ll believe it when I see it. It’ll be Philadelphia that makes us or breaks us on that vote. Either way, this has been a reflection on America and not a positive one.
Either way, this has been a reflection on America and not a positive one.
+1
This is who America is. We need to sober up and deal with it.
Exactly. This is what Amerikka was founded on.
I had a few Europeans on a Discord I follow once ask me when I thought we’d have universal healthcare, and I told them honestly that I’m thinking it would be at least another two decades. The Republican stronghold is too intense here. The country is just too right wing, even among people who vote Democrat.
I’ll be interested to see the demographic breakdown. Latinos we know are more diverse than Democrats are willing to admit, but I’m really interested in the age breakdown. Is there an significant upsweep in young people voting Trump that goes against the demographic claims of Millennials and Gen Z being more liberal? If so, I’m not certain we can be saved.
According to WAPO right now, Joe needs 619,000 votes with only 75% counted in Pennsylvania. Praying…….
@Veronica the young man in front of me in line voted for Trump. He looked to be no more than 18, actually he looked younger. When we lined up to take our ballots to the machine I was directly behind him and saw his choice for president. I was surprised but I really shouldn’t be because after 2016 we need to acknowledge that we are deluding ourselves thinking that this country is other than it is.
Yes, Snuffles: you are right on the money. This orange piece -of-work has woken up the masses as to what happens when you do nothing and expect change. As a former Pub I can only say from my experiences=they vote how they believe as Christians to follow the laws without regard to who is in charge. Sad really, these folks have so much power in 2020. It says alot about our nation. Watch the stats regarding women and college educated= these are our new leaders! Not this old, uneducated, Caucasian, Christian crew, they can secede please and thank you.
Half of the US-American voters are officially braindead. I am pessimistic about Biden winning this election and hope to be proven wrong.
NPR just shifted Michigan to pale blue… and that shades only going to darken 8:15am cst
Biden just took lead over trump 8n Michigan- (49.2 Biden 49.1 trump) it’s very slight but still a lead
Yeah, the fact that mail in ballots are still being counted and that they largely break for dems, make me hesitantly positive. I think Republicans were really enthusiastic to vote for trump so that he could open the economy (nvm the huge covid deaths) and tamp down on “lawlessness” from protesters.
I’m hoping that if trump finally goes away, it will break this authoritarian fever Republicans seem to have. Like how people can recover from brainwashing once separated from their cult leader.
Same. My gut tells me that a lot of Republicans think Trump is dangerous and want him gone. And now that they got what they wanted in the courts, they are ready to dispose of him. And with him gone they will be more inclined to be cooperative in our coronavirus response.
I think people underestimate how powerful party identification is. They’ll vote for trump because he’s a Republican, full stop. We were never going to get most Republicans to vote Biden. I’m not sure why people had such high hopes in that, look at the history of our country. We’re still fighting about removing racist statues, which should be a given. I don’t mean to be cynical, but I don’t trust a lot of people to do the right thing.
We had to rely on independents breaking for dems and higher turnout amongst dems. So we’ll see.
I am very suspicious of how close this race is. For several reasons:
1. Cheetolini has been talking about election tampering for so long, and his whole MO is deflection and projection. If he’s accusing someone of any crime , he’s simultaneously actively committing the same crime.
2. There were too many strange/suspicious things things that happened today. Pipes bursting and internet crashing in two different key swing state polling places. And Florida being called this early. There is no way all of those ballots have been counted yet. I smell foul play.
3. And this speaks to everyone I know and love dearly: while we may live in somewhat echo chambers (for self preservation and care) , I refuse to believe that many Americans support and vote for cruelty. Pure utter decisive cruelty. It can’t be possible…
Off topic but arguments are in front of SCOTUS today to decide if a religious organization can discriminate on religious grounds while working for the government. This is a really big deal.
ah shit
What?! omg I just can’t anymore
Georgia’s biggest county hasn’t completed counting its absentee ballots. My county of Dekalb won’t start counting its ballots until 11. Both of those counties represent over 120K outstanding votes. Those are blue counties. It’s gonna be close in Georgia, but Biden could and should win. I’m ecstatic about the prospect of a blue Georgia with our 2 senate races heading to runoffs.
As for the rest, it was naive of us to believe there would be a repudiation of Trump’s bigotry, misogyny, homophobia and anti-semitism. Half of this country, black, brown and white are okay with all of that because they obviously hold those same beliefs to varying degrees. It’s disappointing, but I still believe in the good people of this country. Let’s remove the head and work on the rest.
Please don’t include Black people. The percentage of Black people supporting this horror is very small and amongst Black women, the lowest of any demographic, closer to zero. Don’t believe that all super-rich Black male rappers are representative of the vast majority of us.
Exactly. Black women are the ones consistently voting with sense and saving the rest of this sorry ass country, so don’t lump us in please. Once again, you (general) should look at white women in terms of identifying the problem and that’s all I will say here.
If Biden does win, it will be because of record voting turnout amongst black voters. They will have bent over backwards to save themselves and the rest of us as a result knowing full well how much of the country hates them. More white women voted for trump than black men. And white men voted overwhelmingly for trump. I will NEVER forget that.
@Anna and the rest, black men voted 18% for Trump. As a black woman, I feel profoundly secure in saying that black men should do better. He shouldn’t have gotten any of our votes, but there is a subset of black men (see: Kanye, 50 Cent, Charlamagne tha God, etc) who saw all the horrible things he’s done plus the misogyny, homophobia, bigotry and antisemitism and said…I don’t care, I’m voting for him.
To include Black people and put Black people first is disingenuous of you. I honestly can’t imagine how much more perfect the Black vote for Democrats can get when compared to other groups voting. There is a clear distinction when dealing with the horrors of what’s supported by others. Even among the most conservative Blacks, Democrats gets their vote, so please refrain from lumping Black people in with others. At least on this one issue, Black people have more than proved their ride and die status for the Democratic party.
Biden is now ahead in Michigan
Native Arizonan here. I’m so proud of my state going blue for bIden, electing 2 democratic senators, and 3 democratic house reps.
I woke up at 4am with no new results, but am just so disappointed in America. The razor thin margins mean that we’re OK with how covid turned out, against BLM, and racist. It’s hard to understand how we can reconcile with Trump voters when our worldviews are so different.
I’m imagining people that grew up with a Leave it to Beaver, 1950s style white sitcom home. They’re probably freaking out at the world today and screaming MAGA. That’s the only way I can justify it given they don’t give a hoot about racism, corruption, etc.
I mean, i grew up in a white family with married parents in a small, safe town, so I guess I fit your description of a Leave it to Beaver family. However, my parents always valued education and hard work, and the entire family has always been solidly blue.
@Chip @Swack That’s great and it’s wonderful that your family has been on the side of justice. I respect your desire to illuminate the differences from larger assumptions. But also, the voting facts are clear. BIPOC in particular are deeply traumatized but also very aware of the facts of who supports whom. Now is not the time for “not-all-white-people”.
Not all of us that grew up with Leave It To Beaver are shouting MAGA and freaking out. I, personally know many who are anti-Maga (including myself). One acquaintance, male, staunch Catholic and in his 70’s, whom I thought would be totally pro-Trump, is the exact opposite. He posts more anri-Trump rhetoric (nothing bad, mostly facts) on FB than many others do. He truly surprised me. So please don’t slap a general label on people.
ugh I made the mistake of thinking we might flip things back towards decency in ohio. shameful! very disappointed that we’re now becoming a solid red state.
Need 3: Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada!!!! Please dear God please! 🙏🙏🙏😭😭😭
I don’t get it. I am stunned. Like, WTF.
Dewey and Truman…The extended version.
Add the 1948 election as a possible addition to the list of things we’re reliving in 2020.
I think Joe will pull off the win once all votes are counted.
I barely slept last night. Kept waking up and refreshing my screen to see the results. Like those of you who have posted, my heart hurts to see what we have become as a nation, that half of us think evil and racism are acceptable. How did we go from Obama to this? Clearly half the country was unhappy with Obama.
Part of the problem may be with Biden himself. I know people who find him frightening and don’t trust him to keep the economy going, who fear for their economic well-being under his leadership. I find it disappointing that an old white guy was the last man standing in the Democratic primaries. I think he does exhibit signs of cognitive decline and doesn’t excite people. If people had more faith in the Democratic nominee, maybe the race wouldn’t be this close. I was always going to vote for whoever that nominee was but not everyone feels this way.
Take a hug! I went to bed way, way too late because of this so you are not alone. I’ve only just been able to calm down when I saw the Michigan news.
To the end of your first paragraph…yeah. 2012 was very different from 2008 if you recall. Obama had managed to nab NC and IN in 2008 but they went right back to being red in 2012. He BARELY won Florida and he won OH by about half the margin he did in 2008. I’m saying all of this to point out that this isn’t something that magically happened overnight. This country has a white majority that has become increasingly resentful of the demographic changes in this country as well as the progress POC have made. That’s one part of the issue, but it’s a huge one.
Exactly @Beach Dreams
I refused to listen to any election news yesterday. My one granddaughter (proBiden but can’t vote) kept wanting to show me the news and I told her not to as I did not want to listen to it – couldn’t take it if Trump was leading or close. Just looked this morning for the first time and am hopefully staying off it the rest of the day. More for mental health than anything.
This is some good news, thank you
I’m cautiously hopeful that Biden will squeak through with a win, but I also keep reminding myself that there is still *so much work* to do whether he does or not. I live in a county that just flipped blue (in a very red state) for the first time in it’s existence. We need to pay close attention to local races and midterm elections in 2022. We need to pester the hell out of our municipal and state governments to protect voting districts or restructure them to reflect fair and accurate representation (gerrymandering is one of the political “gotcha” moments that people forget about until it is way too late). While our federal government is *of course* important, we need to *also* become more involved in our state, city, county (parish) politics as well. Our school boards need our attention, our constabularies need our attention. And if we have any say in how our police departments function, we need to throw our full weight against corruption and unjust policy.
I’m hopeful, but not just for a Biden presidency, which would make all of the other work just a smidge easier. I’m hopeful that everyone center and to the left of center is waking up to their responsibility as citizens to be engaged in every aspect of governance. This country cannot take care of itself. We cannot *not* do our part to understand every motion before our city councils and what legislation is being written and passed in our state governments. And our people are waking up. We just have to keep it going and expand.