Who would have thought that this weekend’s leading two pictures would end up in a veritable draw? Indeed, both Cowboys & Aliens and The Smurfs have both earned an estimated $36.2 at the weekend box office. Of course, analysts are quick to shout “failure” at the former and “surprise success” at the latter, which doesn’t quite seem fair at first glance. Yet when one considers that there were exceedingly high hopes for Cowboys & Aliens, and The Smurfs was projected for an approximate $20 million opening, the picture begins to look much clearer. Further clarification comes from the budgets of both films with Cowboys has been rumored to have been produced at a cost of $200 million, while The Smurfs (even with its CGI) slides in at a more modest budget of around $125 million.

In other words, while Katy Perry’s slutty premiere dress probably has very little to do with The Smurfs‘ relative success, the fact of the matter is that The Smurfs has benefited from very low expectations while Cowboys & Aliens has suffered from not living up to fanboys’ high hopes. Daniel Carlson of Pajiba describes the Cowboy as an inept, predictable yarn full of stock characters with a script chock full of “awkward exposition” that “spends two hours haphazardly mashing up two established film genres but never bothers to give the viewer a reason to care about it.” Even worse, Cowboys & Aliens, which looks to be firmly in the high-concept, low-execution camp, pulled its weekend gross from 3,750 theaters while The Smurfs managed the same total from 3,395 theaters:

Cowboys &amp Aliens: This much-hyped high concept pic from DreamWorks and Relativity and Imagine and Universal (distributing domestic only with Paramount taking foreign) couldn’t do even the predicted $45 million for the weekend, but it didn’t even get to $40M either. “Cowboys & Aliens did not get any late night young male business — hence the reason Universal’s estimates were so far off,” a rival studio exec explained to me Friday night. I’ve been saying for months this actioner should have been done as a comedy! But that idea was only briefly discussed and quickly rejected. Problem is that the budget has been pegged by insiders at a low of $163M (because of filming rebates) and a high of $200M. That’s partly because Cowboys endured a tortured 14-year development history involving more than a dozen writers. (Just five writers received screenplay credit after the Writers Guild not surprisingly held an arbitration trying to figure out who did what.) So here’s yet another Hollywood case study of too many cooks spoiling the broth.

It’s going to be hard for anyone involved in the movie to shrug off responsibility for it underperforming because even the studio was gushing pre-release about its pedigree “because of its deep bench of heavyweight filmmakers and stars, and the most fan-engaged because of involving them directly at every step, particularly through director Jon Favreau, the big-ticket director most active in social media and direct interaction with his followers. Every step of the campaign kept many hands on the wheel, shared by Universal, DreamWorks and the filmmaking team, who all worked in close collaboration on every decision.” Oops! As for marketing, the first teaser trailer was placed on Part 1 of Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows last November, followed by a Super Bowl teaser. The first full trailer made its debut on American Idol on April 14th and in theaters on April 29 with Universal’s big hit Fast Five. The TV campaign included season finales for Top 10 Nielsen shows and sports events.

The publicity campaign launched at last year’s Comic-Con even though the film had only been in production for a few weeks, Favreau used his Iron Man connection with fans to debut nearly 8 minutes of footage, including the first alien attack on the pioneer town in the film. While Harrison Ford made his first-ever appearance to a huge reception. This year’s Comic-Con featured a full-frills world premiere featuring Favreau as well as Spielberg, making his own first appearance at the Con. But it’s interesting how the movie disappointed despite Favreau whoring himself out to The Hollywood Reporter (which nobody reads) and Ain’t It Cool News (which nobody believes). The director even dragged along producer Ron Howard and producer/co-writer Bob Orci to some events, showing more and more footage each time. I heard from Universal that Daniel Craig was a royal pain in the ass when it came to doing publicity, but he did enough with Harrison Ford to merit one magazine cover line, “When Bond Met Indy.”

[From Deadline]

Disappointingly, Daniel Craig’s promotional tactic of dropping F-bombs and talking politics didn’t work to sell this film in the optimal manner. Could’ve fooled me, but I suppose that The Smurfs benefited from a greater than anticpated nostalgia factor because (as alluded to within my Pajiba review), it certainly wasn’t a worthwhile endeavor by any stretch.

Further down the pipe, Captain America: The First Avenger and his wayward, waxed-up nipples pulled in $24.9 million over the weekend (for a domestic total of $116.8 million) while Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 took in $21.9 million (for a domestic total of $318.5 million and a worldwide gross of $1 billion). Meanwhile, fifth place was occupied by the other opener, Crazy, Stupid, Love., with $19.3 million and an emphasis on the stupid.

Movie stills courtesy of AllMoviePhoto

Terrence Howard is kicking himself so hard right now. By allegedly demanding more money to reprise his role as Jim Rhodes in Iron Man 2, he threw away not just a sequel, but a franchise. Don Cheadle, the actor chosen to replace Howard as Rhodes, and Robert Downey Jr. have been the first of a large superhero cast to sign on for Avengers. Jon Favreau, of course, will be back, too.

The men in (and behind) “Iron Man” will be sticking together for more than just the anticipated sequel. Marvel Studios has officially announced that Robert Downey Jr., Don Cheadle and Jon Favreau will be teaming up for not only “Iron Man 2,” but also the company’s much-anticipated superhero battle royale “The Avengers.”

Downey will reprise his role as Tony Stark in “Iron Man 2″ and again in “The Avengers,” while Cheadle will pick up the part of James “Rhodey” Rhodes previously played by Terrence Howard in “Iron Man.” The latter announcement confirms earlier reports regarding Cheadle’s replacement of Howard, with the additional note that Cheadle will play the character in both “The Avengers” and subsequent “Iron Man” films.

Marvel also confirmed that Favreau will not only return to the director’s chair for “Iron Man 2,” but will also serve as executive producer for “The Avengers.”

[From MTV Movie News]

No one is giving out any clues into what’s going on in the movies leading up to Avengers. Favreau has hinted at Samuel L. Jackson returning in Iron Man 2 and a 2010 opening for Iron Man 2 and Thor, leading up to the 2011 release date for Captain American and Avengers. Edward Norton was The Incredible Hulk, but things didn’t end well between Norton and the studio. There has been no word on whether he would come back for Avengers, or if the Hulk will actually be hero or villain.

There’s been some disagreement on the choice of Don Cheadle for the role of Jim Rhodes, who will become War Machine, because he’s always been a more understated, less superhero type actor. But I propose that maybe that’s because he’s not been put in such a role before. I look forward to seeing what Cheadle can do with the character. And if he fails, we’ve seen how easily replaceable the part can be.

Here is Robert Downey, Jr. jumping from a window on the set of Sherlock Holmes on 10/29/08. Credit: Bauergriffinonline. Don Cheadle is shown with his girlfriend, Bridgid Coulter, and their daughters Ayana Tai Cheadle and Imani Cheadle in Hawaii on 8/9/08. Credit: Fame

Gwyneth Paltrow wore a bizarre 70s purple vest suit with bell bottoms to the premiere of Ironman in LA. It looked like something Heather Mills would wear to divorce court. It’s the second time Paltrow has worn a low cut vest recently. She donned a similar vest for her appearance on The Late Show earlier this week. At least she’s not wearing another micro miniskirt, but the super wide bell bottoms leave something to be desired. It’s a one piece outfit and is cut almost to the top of her butt in back. Can’t she dress sexy without showing so much skin?

A lot of you called my post critiquing her her super short dress ageist because a younger woman might have been able to get away with it, but the issue was with her fashion not her age. She’s got a gorgeous body, but she doesn’t need to wear a skirt that barely covers her crotch to show off her legs.

As it is, she’s slowing growing on me. She gave a great interview to David Letterman earlier in the week and I found her both likable and surprisingly down to earth. I’m baffled by her outfit choices, but at least she cut her hair and is taking chances again. People are talking about her, and that’s undoubtedly what she’s going for with her wild shoes and outfits while promoting Ironman. It’s not like she’s done much recently and she may as well get as much publicity as possible.

Also shown at the premiere are Robert Downey, Jr., Vince Vaughn, Jeff Bridges and his family, Jon Favreau, Jack Black, Terrence Howard, Beau Bridges, Diddy, Pete Wentz surprisingly without Ashlee, and Jenna Dewan.

Dear Gwyneth Paltrow: you fail. You had a very good formula going with painfully fashion-forward shoes and non-hideous outfits that managed to reach at least to mid thigh. You ruined it by falling back on an old misguided habit of showing off your gorgeous legs with dresses meant for a shorter woman. Plus, those shoes are a cop out. You were supposed to wear towering studded monstrosities to your premiere to cap off a month of shoe risks. This is a disappointment, but I’m glad you no longer challenge my long held assumptions about you. Now go back to talking about how great England is and how stupid and slow-minded Americans are, and we’ll keep snickering at your foolish fashion. Those shoes were just a whim, much like our brief admiration of you.

You could have made us completely ignore this outfit if you would have showed up to the premiere with Chris, though. Now that would have been a change.

Thanks to WENN for these photos. Also pictured are Jon Favreau and his wife Joya Tillem, who gets a pass for that outfit due to non-celebrity status, and Robert Downey Jr. and his wife Susan Downey.